2013 Elections in Germany

[RogueBeaver]

All roads lead to Merkel. Wasn't a Black-Green coalition also being mooted a while back too? Though obviously most likely is still a Grand with the remaining FDP tacked on.

[RogueBeaver]

This guy is even more of a self-parody than Romney, albeit from the other side of the aisle. An SPD candidate supposed to represent blue-collar voters saying that he'd be underpaid... in comparison to bankers. Then saying his female opponent's female supporters vote their gender. I don't know if Germany has a political satire show like Private Eye or SNL but if they do this would be a marvelous skit. Cause you couldn't make this sh**t up.

At least he's basically resigned to losing, so not totally detached from political reality.

[RogueBeaver]

Thanks for the states' guides: finding them very interesting.

[RogueBeaver]

Hence the thread joke of gaffe intervals being "Steinbrucks" with "Romneys" as decimals.

[RogueBeaver]

When do the polls close and how long does it take for results to trickle in?

[RogueBeaver]

Eesh, US 2000 style nailbiter.

[RogueBeaver]

Steinbrück is politically dead if this holds.

He already is.

[RogueBeaver]

So if SPD wins by the skin of their teeth... interesting.

[RogueBeaver]

By the narrowest possible margin. So no federal Mo either way.

[RogueBeaver]

Will McAllister stay on for a rematch or not? Considering he was a sure goner until quite recently... I'd say he should at least be allowed to consider the idea.

[RogueBeaver]

Holding steady. Grand it is since Merkel can't eke out too many more votes for the CDU/CSU alone and the FDP loan strategy might backfire.

[RogueBeaver]

Question about the federal election: What's the PV trigger for an absolute majority? 45%? Higher? Since some polls have CDU/CSU in the low 40s. I don't think Merkel can eke out many more votes for Team Black unless the SPD drops below 25%, which seems unlikely unless Steinbruck outdoes himself again in the gaffe department. (Debates maybe?)

[RogueBeaver]

So almost certainly not happening then. Grand it is.

[RogueBeaver]

Is Brandenburg a deeply Red state? Sure seems like it from that poll.

Steinbruck: Yeah, still stuck on stupid. I can't wait for the debates.

[RogueBeaver]

By 2017 incumbency fatigue will start creeping in after 12 years. Merkel might choose to fight that last election and then retire midterm. But this is all a few years away, plenty of time to figure things out.

[RogueBeaver]

Still looking Grand. Merkel should not "loan" votes, considering how that turned out last time.

[RogueBeaver]

Hah: Steinbruck is even losing on "social justice." Part of that's because Merkel has galloped to the centre, but for a social democrat to be losing on social justice... Jeebus. He also "borrowed" his campaign slogan from a temporary jobs agency.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/12/us-germany-politics-poll-idUSBRE93B0HN20130412

[RogueBeaver]

Romney and/or Biden? Merkel doesn't even need to put up any attack ads, they're writing themselves. Steinbruck also stood by his slogan, saying that what the public wants "is less selfishness and more public welfare."

[RogueBeaver]

Catch-22: moving leftwards to recapture lost votes on that flank, or stay the centre-left course to keep floating votes while leaving the left flank alone? Steinbruck clearly prefers the latter and his "adjustment" is painfully obvious. Otherwise I agree with you.

Candidates: Steinmeier got thrashed by Merkel in '09 and lost state government, Gabriel also lost state government. Not miles better either.

Question to Germans: is Kraft from the Schroder wing or the more left than centre wing of the SPD?

[RogueBeaver]

Another Steinbruck gaffe: this time saying Merkel lacked a passion for Europe because she's an Easterner. At this rate we should have a list of demographics he hasn't yet offended. How do you say "WHAT ABOUT YOUR GAAFFES!!!" in German?

[RogueBeaver]

Not yet.

[RogueBeaver]

Now unsourced speculation about Merkel retiring in 2016, which she's denying. If she intends to serve the full four year term, then presumably that means part of a fourth?

[RogueBeaver]

2019 seems an ideal time to bow out. 14 years is definitely long enough, graceful retirement and time for post-political life.

[RogueBeaver]

Merkel blames Schroder for allowing Greece's EU admission back in 2001.

[RogueBeaver]

Le Monde concurs with the polls: a draw. Am I the only one surprised that Steinbruck didn't gaffe? Then again, he's basically run out of demographics to offend.