2013 Elections in Germany

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

In my small rural community, the results will be something like
CSU: 58%
Greens: 16%
SPD: 8%
Free Voters: 7%
FDP: 4%
Others: 7%

''

People vote for the Greens in rural Bayern? O.o

[Hans-im-Glück]

Just voted

In my small town last time there was this result:

CSU  38%
SPD 28%
Free Voters 10%
Greens 4,5%
FDP 5,5%

I don't expect great changes

[Tender Branson]

Turnout likely to be between 60-65% now (2008: 58%).

Turnout in Munich up to 50% from 40% at the 2pm measuring.

Sign of SPD mobilization ?

[minionofmidas]

In my small rural community, the results will be something like
CSU: 58%
Greens: 16%
SPD: 8%
Free Voters: 7%
FDP: 4%
Others: 7%

''

People vote for the Greens in rural Bayern? O.o

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sepp_Daxenberger was about as true-rural as a politician can be these days... of course much of 'rural' Upper Bavaria (not the eastern end of it!) is really exurbia-that-likes-to-pretend-to-be-rural.

[minionofmidas]

Turnout likely to be between 60-65% now (2008: 58%).

Turnout in Munich up to 50% from 40% at the 2pm measuring.

Sign of SPD mobilization ?

Sign of there being a federal election up next week?

[ERvND]

Whereabouts do you live?

In the Southeast of Upper Bavaria.

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Yes. Many parts of rural Bavaria, especially those located in the metropolitan areas of big cities like Munich, have become very affluent in the last decades. Parallel to this, people and society as a whole has become more liberal and open-minded (decreasing influence of the church, higher academic education, influx from other states and so on). They are still rich, however, so they'd never vote for the SPD. In this situation, the Greens are more or less their only alternative. In consequence, the Greens have overtaken the SPD in many rural regions during the last ten years.

[Tender Branson]

Whereabouts do you live?

In the Southeast of Upper Bavaria.

So, you basically live only a few kilometers away from me ?

How far away from Unken do you live ca. ?

[minionofmidas]

They are still rich, however, so they'd never vote for the SPD. In this situation, the Greens are more or less their only alternative. In consequence, the Greens have overtaken the SPD in many rural regions during the last ten years.

Though only where the SPD is really weak, of course.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in Augsburg is lagging behind the 2008 level by a bit, but Nürnberg is up ca. 2% and Würzburg up by 10%, like Munich.

[ERvND]

So, you basically live only a few kilometers away from me ?

How far away from Unken do you live ca. ?

Ca. 50 kms away, I'd guess.

[Tender Branson]

Speaking of rural Bayern, check out my pictures from my trip to Passau and back through Braunau am Inn last year:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152340.msg3272429#msg3272429

[Tender Branson]

1st "exit poll" in 50 minutes.

Live stream:

http://www.br-online.de/landtagswahl/index.shtml

[Tender Branson]

Voting booth in Bavaria:

[Tender Branson]

"The economy in Bayern is good" - 84% agree.

Exit Poll in a few seconds.

[minionofmidas]

ca.64% turnout (this is the prognosis figure you shouldn't trust)

CSU 49%
SPD 21%
FW 8.5%
Greens 8.5%
FDP 3%
Left 2%
Pirates 2%
other 6% (who? AfD didn't even run.)

[Tender Branson]

CSU @ 49%

Solid absolute majority: more than 100 of 180 seats.

[Hash]

Bavaria continues to be horrible.

[minionofmidas]

CSU+FDP (+0.6) and SPD+Greens+FW (-0.2) virtually unchanged on these figures. (And the big party gained within both blocs, though the SPD less than the CSU.)
Of course given that the FDP is out, the opposition share of parliamentary seat actually increases...* not that it matters much.

*since the last Landtag had overhang, government down seven seats, opposition unchanged.

[ZuWo]

Bavaria continues to be horrible.

84% of the people in Bavaria say the economic situation is good. What a horrible state indeed!

[Franknburger]

Kind of combined post, just to fill the time until the first Bavaria results come in:

AfD trends: FG Wahlen "Politische Stimmung" (the raw polling, not the projection) is having them at 4% now. The same applies to two new state-level polls, namely MV (Emnid, published yesterday) and Berlin (infratest dimap, 11.9.).

Party leadership: It is no "American model", but varying party by party. CDU/CSU are anyway having two leaders, with one of them usually being/ running for chancellor. SPD "troika' (Chancellor/ Vice-chancellor, Party leader, parliamentary whip) has become kind of a tradition since the Willy Brandt times. Grüne separate party office and public office, with two party leaders (m/f), making for a quite large number of leaders. FDP has a tradition of Vice Chancellor=Foreign Minister=party leader, but that has weakened recently.

On the "politicians to come" list, a lot will depend on the election result, and the make-up of the next government. For the SPD, my "old friend" Olaf Scholz should  not be neglected, especially if he manages to repeat strong SPD results in Hamburg. FDP - aside from Lindner, I think Dirk Niebel (current Minister of Economic Cooperation) should not be overlooked.  Greens: The "realo" wing is already getting in line against Trittin and other "oldies" (Rpth, Künast). Göring-Eckard may stay, Cem Özdemir should be strengthened, SH vice PM & Minister of Environment Habeck has been leading the states in negotiating energy issues with the federal government and might assume a stronger role within the federal party as well.

[Tender Branson]

This is only the first projection, based on 30.000 interviews in polling stations over the day.

The first "Hochrechnung" (extrapolation) based on already counted precincts will come in the next half hour.

[Hans-im-Glück]

other 6% (who? AfD didn't even run.)

Ödp, Bayernpartei, Republikaner, NPD etc.

This result is no surprise. 49% for the CSU is only an average result for them. 21% for the SPD is better than the last time, but still horrible- The Free Voters have a good result and the Greens have a bad result. They where in the polls only 2 weeks much better. To the FDP I can only say Good Bye

[minionofmidas]

other 6% (who? AfD didn't even run.)

Ödp, Bayernpartei, Republikaner, NPD etc.

You're right, didn't think of the ÖDP. Indeed it's unchanged.

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Not even. This is actually somewhat short of a "normal service resumed".

[mubar]

So once again about one half of Bavaria votes for the continuation of their one-party-system.

* In Franconia there might be a clear swing away from the CSU, particularly in the Nuremberg metro. The reason is that in 2008 the CSU's incumbent governor was Günther Beckstein from Nuremberg. Constituencies like Nürnberg-Nord, Nürnberg-West and Fürth might show much closer results this time, though they are likely still out of reach for the SPD

This actually is something I want to closely follow tonight. If CSU got worse results than in 2008 in Middle Franconia, while at the same time increasing their share with 5 points in Bavaria overall, the region would really stand out. And it's in the realm of possibility: after all, in Nürnberg city council SPD is clearly the strongest party, and in Fürth SPD even has the majority. But of course, with yet another CSU absolute majority in the state, there likely won't be any red constituencies outside München city center.

[Tender Branson]

According to the ARD poll, the CSU gained mostly non-voters (2/3), followed by a good share of FDP voters and FW voters. Also some SPD/Greens/Left voters.

40-45% of young voters voted CSU, compared with 63% of voters over 70 years.