National Tracking Poll Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 311865 times)
Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #50 on: October 15, 2012, 09:14:35 AM »
I think they just flat-out reject internet polls.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #51 on: October 15, 2012, 02:26:17 PM »
The Romney debate bounce continues to fade in Reuters/Ipsos:

Obama 47% (+1)
Romney 45% (nc)

Of course RCP doesn't include this poll in its average, otherwise Obama would pull back into the lead today.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #52 on: October 15, 2012, 05:05:10 PM »
So Obama leads two tracking polls today (+2 and +5), Romney leads two (+1 and +2) and one is a tie.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #53 on: October 16, 2012, 12:02:22 PM »
Reuter/Ipsos

Obama 46% (-1)
Romney 43% (-2)
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #54 on: October 16, 2012, 01:57:32 PM »
IBD/TIPP
Obama 47%
Romney 46%

It was tied yesterday.

So Obama improved in three tracker todays (Reuters/Ipsos, IBD/TIPP and RAND) and Romney improved in the other two (Rasmussen, Gallup).
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #55 on: October 18, 2012, 02:14:36 AM »
Apparently there was a Reuters/Ipsos poll today, including some interviews from post-debate, though it's a 5-day tracking poll so at most 1/5 would be post-debate.

LV
Obama: 47% (+1)
Romney: 44% (+1)

Obama is up 46-40 with registered voters and leads by 12% with early voters, though the margin of error is pretty huge.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #56 on: October 18, 2012, 12:02:16 PM »
There is now a six-point gap between registered and likely voters according to Gallup.

RV
Romney 48%
Obama 47% (+1)

LV
Romney 52% (+1)
Obama 45%
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #57 on: October 18, 2012, 01:34:22 PM »
Once again, if you want to believe the Gallup poll that Mitt Romney is leading by 7% nationally, then you're going to have to not believe basically every single poll of every single state we've gotten in the past week. There is literally no evidence, other than the Gallup tracking poll, that Mitt Romney is leading by 7% or anything close to it.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #58 on: October 18, 2012, 01:54:38 PM »
Only 1/7 of Gallup is post-debate, only 1/6 of the IBD poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the Rasmussen poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the PPP poll is post-debate (and they said that Obama gained significantly on their Wednesday interviews). Too early to tell.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #59 on: October 18, 2012, 02:14:46 PM »


PPP. Does. Not. Weigh. By. Party. ID.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #60 on: October 18, 2012, 03:04:08 PM »
No it didn't... Obama's chance of winning increased marginally from 64.8% to 65.7% yesterday.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #61 on: October 18, 2012, 05:59:05 PM »
Quote from: JulioMadrid on October 18, 2012, 05:55:18 PM
Quote from: TrapperHawk on October 18, 2012, 05:04:28 PM
Tight race.

I know I'm late to the Gallup party, but I'm thinking that the 7-point margin will tighten up soon. I'm betting there are a couple of massive pro-Romney samples that will fall off soon. Probably in the next couple of days.

J.J. forgot to say that. Maybe there are two pro-Romney samples in Monday and Tuesday.

Well if you look at the approval numbers (on a 3-day cycle), Obama's improved by about five points between the first half of the current 7-day Gallup sample and the second half.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #62 on: October 19, 2012, 11:24:16 AM »
THE BOUNCE HAS BEGUN
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #63 on: October 19, 2012, 11:59:06 AM »
Obama was down 4 points on Sunday. Now, after the debate, he is up 1 point. How is that not a bounce?
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #64 on: October 19, 2012, 01:33:23 PM »
Obama leads the RCP average by 0.1%! And RCP, being a right-wing hack website, doesn't include RAND, Ipsos or PPP.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #65 on: October 19, 2012, 10:32:47 PM »
The debate bounce is sweeping across the country. I invite my Romney-supporting friends to jump aboard the Obama Train before it's too late!
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #66 on: October 20, 2012, 12:14:32 AM »
Ah, Gravis is polling nationally now I see. Anything to keep Romney up in the RCP average.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #67 on: October 20, 2012, 12:44:31 PM »
Obama clearly has the momentum now.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #68 on: October 21, 2012, 12:19:51 PM »
Why would I panic? Gallup is not a good poll. They were very off in both 2008 and 2010. All the other data points to a tied national election with Obama holding on to a very slight electoral college lead.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #69 on: October 21, 2012, 12:23:36 PM »
« Edited: October 21, 2012, 12:25:27 PM by Lief »
OBAMA SURGE IN IBD

OBAMA: 48% (+1)
ROMNEY: 42% (-2)

TIME TO PANIC JJ
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #70 on: October 21, 2012, 12:25:00 PM »
RCP must really be regretting arbitrarily decided to include the IBD tracker in their average now.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #71 on: October 22, 2012, 04:17:24 PM »
Washington Post/ABC has a daily tracking poll too now.

Obama 49
Romney 48

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/22/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-49-percent-romney-48-percent/
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #72 on: October 22, 2012, 04:20:45 PM »
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/22/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-49-percent-romney-48-percent/

Romney increasing by 2% is basically just float within the margin of error. And Obama is holding steady at 49%, enough to win re-election.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #73 on: October 23, 2012, 12:10:44 PM »
It's 1:10 and still no Gallup update.

WHAT IS GOING ON!?!?!
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #74 on: October 23, 2012, 04:03:14 PM »
WaPo-ABC Tracking Poll:
Romney 49 (+1)
Obama 48 (-1)
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