Obviously Sinema is not needed for Democrats to hold this seat if the environment is favorable enough for them, but Sinema losing to a progressive challenger would be an absolute gift to the GOP.
You really think so? I think a damaged Sinema with baggage is an easier opponent for Republicans than a progressive Democrat with no baggage.
Definitely. Sinema has lost the approval of a large part of the D base, but she still enjoys considerable crossover appeal among Republicans (even Republican leaders/strategists are heaping praise on her on a regular basis even though she is obviously extremely unlikely to cast the deciding vote against anything D leadership actually prioritizes). Sinema losing the primary would only reinforce the predictable "[candidate xyz] is too left-wing for AZ/does not represent the spirit of John McCain and Kyrsten Sinema/etc." lines of attack, and both Kelly and Sinema (unlike Warnock or Ossoff) owe their wins largely to moderates. Gallego would never get the crossover support from R-leaning voters that Sinema would have gotten and would depend on the top of the ticket/environment/mistakes of his R opponent much more than Sinema.
The polls I saw a few weeks ago showed that she was only marginally more popular among Republicans than Kelly and about the same among independents.
