Hillary and Arkansas

[un]

It's make more sense than it would now, the Democratic Party was far stronger in the white south than it is now. Arkansas only voted for Bush by 9 in 2004, it was not a super Republican state yet, and some polls did suggest that Clinton could beat McCain in the state. You could sorta see that in the primary, Arkansas primary turnout was way higher for the Democrats in 2008 than it was in 2016 or 2020, particularly in rural, white areas. This could also be seen in states like West Virginia, Kentucky, and some regions of other states like Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi. And of course, in all of these areas, Clinton destroyed Obama in the primary, often by 70+ point margins. She was very popular in the state, and her husband was still very popular. This of course, is not true today, but things change a lot.

I think a Clinton win in Arkansas could have happened, though I'm not entirely sure by how much, and it would also depend on how willing African American voters are to turnout for her, after what would likely be a deeply bitter primary battle between her and Obama. After all, many Clinton voters voted McCain in the general, its why West Virginia and Arkansas swung to the right in 2008 despite nearly every other state swinging left. I don't think Obama voters would vote McCain, but I'm not sure how willing they'd be to vote for Clinton either.

Regardless of whether she wins it, Arkansas would still become a red state, the same way it did under the Obama era timeline, maybe it would be a slower swing, but it would still happen.