US with Canadian Ridings

[traininthedistance]

Well, attempt #2 gave 6 majority black districts, and to get there I had to make a couple ugly and non-contiguous districts.  Pretend there's a highway connecting them all together if necessary:



Majority black districts in bold. White majority Obama district is italicized. Numbered starting in top left, going left to right, as best I can:

Num   Name
1   Southhaven - Olive Branch (Pale Blue)
2   Hernando - Holly Springs (Lime)
3   Corinth (Pink)
4   Clarksdale (Red)
5   Oxford (Royal Blue)
6   Tupelo (Grey)
7   Grenada - Houston - Aberdeen (Cyan)
8   Greenville (Steel Grey)
9   Kosciusko - Louisville (Steel Green)
10   Golden Triangle (Maroon)
11   Canton - Yazoo - North Vicksburg (Forest Green)
12   (contrived non-contiguous black district East) (Black)
13   North Jackson - Clinton - Madison (Blue)
14   West Jackson (Yellow)
15   (contrived white district) (Orange)
16   (contrived non-contiguous black district West) (Magenta)
17   Pearl - Brandon (Aqua)
18   Collins - Magee (Green)
19   Meridian (White)
20   Natchez - McComb (Steel Pink)
21   Columbia - Tylertown - Picayune (Gold)
22   Hattiesburg (Purple)
23   Waynesboro - Lucedale (Light Blue)
24   Bay St. Louis (Royal Purple)
25   Gulfport - Biloxi (Greypink)
26   Pascagoula - Ocean Springs (Dark Grey)


All six black districts should comfortably elect a Democrat, no matter what.  Republicans could contest Golden Triangle every time, but a Democrat would usually win.

Republicans would normally win the other 20 seats, although Gene Taylor would probably win the Bay St. Louis riding.

I can get to nine majority-black VAP (even better than total population) districts without particularly even trying.



They are:
4- 54.2%
9- 62.4%
10- 57.3%
11- 50.4% (Okay, I did have to try a tiny bit for this one.  But really not that much.)
12- 56.1%
15- 50.8%
16- 54.1%
17- 56.7%
18- 53.4%

The only even remotely problematic district here is 15; I can't imagine too many people on either side in MS would be happy about a black-majority district that includes all of Ridgeland and is thus only 55% Obama.  But you can do it and the lines look good at a distance!

And, of course, the Golden Triangle district remains Dem-leaning as well.

[traininthedistance]

How in the world is 16 majority black??  That appears to be the white parts of Jackson and a piece of mostly white Rankin County.
For that matter, I'm surprised 15 is majority black too.

I can promise you that putting ALL of Hinds and ALL of Madison counties into majority black districts would not fly.

Here's a closeup:



And here's a closeup with all precincts removed from 15 and 16 that are less than 30 percent black:



15-minus-the-white-parts is 68K people, 46K under the ideal; 16-minus-the-white-people is 83K, 31K under the ideal.  The white precincts of those two districts, together, are considerably smaller than a full district.

There are a lot of blacks packed in the Jackson area, and there really aren't that many white precincts in Jackson, at all.  It's easier than you think to unpack them.

[traininthedistance]

Oh I realize the Jackson whites are packed into a few northeastern districts, but those are the richest, most powerful people in the entire state.  They will NOT be put into a majority black district. Period. Ever.  Same goes for Madison.

Yeah, I'm aware that there would be a hue and cry.  You can rejigger my 14-15-16 to give them a white district, of course, and you still have eight black-majority districts, even with a repacked Jackson.  Probably pretty easy to then send a tendril or two south from Jackson to re-establish a ninth black district, at the expense of compactness.

[traininthedistance]

Just for the lulz:



Fourteen black-majority districts, and a fifteenth Obama district in Gulfport-Biloxi-Passacougla!

Whee.

[traininthedistance]

Colorado in 46.  The 10% deviation is liberally used to try and minimize county-splitting, way more than I usually feel comfortable doing; the farthest-from-equal district, 12, is +9684.

Better names for some of the districts, especially the rural ones, welcomed.



For the first 9 districts, the only county splits are the obvious ones for GJ and Pueblo.  District 5 includes several counties that, while largely rural and mountainous, are part of the Denver MSA.

District 1- NORTHWEST-MESA OUTER.  O 37.3%, D 35.3%.  Safe R.
District 2- GRAND JUNCTION.  O 36.6%, D 37.6%.  Safe R.
District 3- SOUTHWEST-MONTROSE-CORTEZ. O 39.2%, D 36.5%.  Safe R.
District 4- EAGLE-ASPEN-HIGH ROCKIES SOUTH. O 61.4%, D 55.2%.  Safe D.
District 5- SUMMIT-HIGH ROCKIES NORTH. O 57.5%, D 50.4%.  Lean D.
District 6- DURANGO-SAN LUIS VALLEY.  O 54.0%, D 49.1%.  23% Hispanic VAP.  Tossup.
District 7- SOUTH COLORADO-PUEBLO OUTER.  O 44.5%, D 44.1%.  27% Hispanic VAP.  Safe R.
District 8- PUEBLO. O 64.9%, D 63.8%.  50W/45H VAP; Hispanic-plurality by total population.  Safe D.  Tried to follow city boundaries as well as possible, perfect is not possible.
District 9- EASTERN PLAINS.  O 30.4%, D 29.4%.  Wants to be the 51st State apparently, good luck with that.  Safe R.



El Paso County has five full districts, and one shared with Teller (which is the only other county in the Colorado Springs MSA) and Fremont.  They are all overpopulated pretty badly.  Douglas has two full districts and one shared with Elbert; both counties are part of the Denver area; they are all underpopulated.

District 10- CAÑON CITY- EL PASO WEST.  O 38.5%, D 35.3%.  Includes part of Colorado Springs proper, but not much.  Safe R.
District 11- EL PASO SOUTH AND EAST.  O 36.2%, D 31.0%.  Safe R.
District 12- COLORADO SPRINGS CENTER.  O 58.2%,  52.1%.  61W/10B/22H by VAP.  Lean D.
District 13- COLORADO SPRINGS NORTHWEST.  O 41.8%, D 37.0%.  There has to be a better name for this.  Safe R.
District 14- COLORADO SPRINGS NORTHEAST-CIMARRON HILLS.  O 36.2%, D 30.4%.  Safe R.
District 15- AIR FORCE-BLACK FOREST-EL PASO NORTH.  O 29.1%, D 24.2%.  Uber-super-duper-mega Safe R.  Includes some more Colorado Springs, which extends much further north than it does south.
District 16- PARKER-DOUGLAS NORTHEAST.  O 40.3%, D 32.9%.  Safe R.
District 17- CASTLE ROCK- DOUGLAS SOUTH-ELBERT.  O 35.5%, D 29.1%.  Safe R.
District 18- HIGHLANDS RANCH.  O 44.0%, D 37.8%.  Safe R.



Jeffco has five districts, mostly underpopulated, and including what looks like it might be a noncontiguous percent near Littleton. 

District 19- COLUMBINE-KEN CARYL-JEFFERSON SOUTH.  O 47.4%, D 41.4%.  Safe R.
District 20- LAKEWOOD EAST.  O 59.2%, D 53.7%.  22% Hispanic VAP; actually contains most of Lakewood.  Lean D.
District 21- LAKEWOOD WEST-GOLDEN-JEFFERSON WEST.  O 54.7%, D 49.1%.  Tossup.
District 22- WHEAT RIDGE-ARVADA SOUTH.  O 55.5%, D 50.6%.  Lean D.
District 23- WESTMINSTER JEFFERSON-ARVADA NORTH.  O 53.0%, D 46.9%.  Tossup.

Denver has five districts and one shared with Arapahoe (a necessity given population and the Arapahoe enclaves); Arapahoe has four more whole districts and two shared with Adams; Adams has three more whole districts.  The double-spanning of Arapahoe and Adams was done because the alternative would be uglier, and force another split of Aurora, and I made the decision that uniting rural eastern Arapahoe and Adams would give them a better chance at having a local voice. 

District 24- CENTENNIAL.  O 49.4%, D 43.8%.  Obama won this by 49 votes in 2008.  Lean R.
District 25- LITTLETON-ENGLEWOOD. O 53.5%, D 47.5%.  Tossup.
District 26- AURORA SOUTH. O 58.2%, D 51.7%.  67W/11B/14H.  Lean D.
District 27- AURORA WEST- DENVER ENCLAVES.  O 68.3%, D 63.4%.  60W/15B/16H.  Safe D.
District 28- AURORA CENTER.  O 67.7%, D 60.7%.  40W/19B/33H.  Yeah, the "Center" designation for a suburb.  A bit silly I know.  Safe D.
District 29- AURORA NORTH AND EAST.  O 54.7%, D 46.6%.  57W/10B/24H.  One of the two Adams-Arapahoe districts.  Tossup.

District 30- DENVER SOUTHWEST.  O 65.2%, D 60.8%.  41W/51H; the only actual Hispanic-majority-by-VAP district (though there are other opportunity districts).  Safe D.
District 31- DENVER NORTHWEST. O 82.7%, D 80.7%.  45W/45H.  Hispanic majority by total population and VAP plurality.  Safe D.
District 32- DENVER CENTER. O 79.8%, D 77.1%.  Safe D.
District 33- DENVER SOUTHEAST. O 69.6%, D 65.5%.  Safe D.
District 34- DENVER NORTHEAST-STAPLETON-AIRPORT.  O 84.8%, D 81.7%.  36W/27B/30H.  Hispanic plurality by total population.  Safe D.

District 35- BRIGHTON- ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE EAST.  O 47.3%, D 39.7%.  71W/22H.  The other double-spanning district.  Safe R.
District 36- WESTMINSTER ADAMS-NORTHGLENN.  O 58.3%, D 51.4%.  70W/24H.  Lean D.
District 37- COMMERCE CITY-SOUTH ADAMS.  O 66.2%, D 59.9%.  45W/49H; Hispanic majority by total population.  Commerce City is split with 35.  Safe D.
District 38- THORNTON.  O 58.6%, D 50.8%.  63W/30H.  Lean D.

Broomfield is appended onto Boulder to make three districts.

District 39- BROOMFIELD-LAFAYETTE-LOUISVILLE.  O 62.9%, D 57.6%.  Safe D.
District 40- BOULDER CITY.  O 82.6%, D 79.8%.  Safe D.
District 41- LONGMONT- BOULDER OUTER.  O 61.8%, D 56.3%.  Safe D.



And, finally, Larimer and Weld are five districts together, two each and one shared.

District 42- WELD OUTER.  O 41.4%, D 34.7%.  Safe R.
District 43- GREELEY.  O 50.2%, D 41.9%.  64W/32H.  Lean R.
District 44- LOVELAND-WINDSOR.  O 43.7%, D 38.0%.  Safe R.
District 45- LARIMER OUTER.  O 52.1%, D 46.3%.  Lean R.
District 46- FORT COLLINS. O 62.1%, D 56.6%.  Safe D.

14 Safe D
7 Lean D
5 Tossup
3 Lean R
17 Safe R

[traininthedistance]

Pennsylvania in 113.  Lotsa wide deviations here…not a lot of splits.  The only split cities are Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and a couple cases where municipalities cross county lines (Bethlehem is by far the largest of these).  Within Philly and Pittsburgh, the districts follow ward boundaries exactly.  Philly does not share any districts with its suburbs, but unfortunately all three Pittsburgh districts have to take a small amount of non-Pittsburgh material.  Let's do this in two posts.





Philly has fourteen districts, most of them fairly underpopulated.  Six are black-majority by VAP, one is Hispanic-majority by VAP, one min-maj VAP district (black plurality by total population) and one min-maj by total population only.
District 1: SOUTH PHILLY-CENTER CITY EAST.  O 75.3%, D 78.7%.  67W/14A.  Safe D.
District 2: SOUTHWEST-POINT BREEZE.  O 83.8%, D 84.6%.  29W/56B.  Safe D, black majority.
District 3: UNIVERSITY CITY-WEST PHILLY SOUTH.  O 95.9%, D 93.7%.  23W/62B.  Safe D, black majority.  My old haunt.
District 4: WEST PHILLY NORTH. O 96.5%, D 94.8%.  12W/82B.  Safe D, black majority.  I would *really* like to find some way to unpack this, to let 5 and/or 6 be black-majority, but couldn't figure something out that worked with both ward boundaries and common sense.
District 5: FAIRMOUNT-CENTER CITY WEST.  O 89.2%, D 87.4%.  56W/30B.  Safe D.
District 6: MANAYUNK-ROXBOROUGH-STRAWBERRY MANSION.  O 84.2%, D 83.2%.  49W/45B.  Safe D, black-plurality by total population but white plurality by VAP.  I've lived here, too.
District 7: GERMANTOWN-NORTHWEST.  O 96.1%, D 93.5%.  21W/74B.  Safe D, black-majority.
District 8: FAR NORTH.  O 92.3%, D 90.1%.  15W/67B.  Safe D, black-majority.
District 9: NORTH BROAD STREET. O 97.0%, D 95.2%.  69B/19H.  Safe D, black majority.  Isn't J.J. from here or something?
District 10: NEAR NORTHEAST.  O 88.3%, D 86.5%.  19W/21B/54H.  Safe D, Hispanic majority. 
District 11: RIVER WARDS.  O 74.2%, D 75.0%.  53W/23B/20H.  Safe D, min-maj by total population.
District 12: OXFORD CIRCLE.  O 66.3%, D 67.7%.  59W/16B/12H/10A.  There's probably a better name for this?  Mid-Northeast?  Safe D. 
District 13: FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH.  O 56.4%, D 60.5%.  74W/14B.  Safe(ish) D.
District 14: FAR NORTHEAST NORTH.  O 55.1%, D 59.2%.  Lean D.  Congrats Phil!

Delco is five districts, fitting quite well.  One is min-maj, the last one by VAP we'll see all state (The Reading and Allentown districts are min-maj by total population, though).
District 15: RIDLEY-AIRPORT.  O 58.2%, D 56.4%.  80W/15B.  Lean D, includes many small boroughs as well.
District 16: UPPER DARBY.  O 70.4%, D 67.0%.  49W/36B.  Safe D, min-maj.  Includes several other towns but UD dominates.
District 17: HAVERFORD-RADNOR-MARPLE.  O 56.6%, D 54.1%.  Lean D, rather unusually just those three Main Line townships (well, Marple isn't really).
District 18: CRUM CREEK.  O 66.6%, D 62.9%.  67W/25B.  AKA "Chester-Springfield-Media", or "Central Delco".  Another district I've lived in.  Safe D.
District 19:  DELCO WEST.  O 50.3%, D 46.9%.  Lean R.



Chester is four whole districts and one shared with Berks (which we'll get to later).
District 20: TREDYFFRIN-WEST CHESTER.  O 55.1%, D 50.5%.  More Main Line, etc.  Tossup.
District 21: CHESTER CENTRAL-MAIN LINE WEST. O 60.4%, D 54.9%.  76W/12B.  At least *one* of these districts should actually say "Main Line" on it.  Safe(ish) D.
District 22: CHESTER SOUTH.  O 51.2%, D 46.1%.  81W/11H.  Lean R.
District 23: PHOENIXVILLE-CHESTER NORTHEAST.  O 52.8%, D 47.8%.  Eh, Lean R, I guess.

Montgomery is seven whole districts, a little overpopulated on average.
District 24: MERION-MAIN LINE EAST.  O 66.3%, D 63.1%.  Also has West Norriton and a couple tiny boros, but dominated by Upper & Lower Merion.  The last district I've lived in.  Safe D.
District 25: CHELTENHAM-PLYMOUTH MEETING.  O 66.5%, D 63.5%.  77W/14B.  Safe D.
District 26: ABINGTON-MORELAND.  O 61.1%, D 58.6%.  Safe D.
District 27: UPPER DUBLIN-LOWER GWYNEDD-HORSHAM.  O 57.3%, D 53.2%.  Better names welcome for this generic suburban expanse.  Maybe "Fort Washington"?  Lean D.
District 28: NORTH MONTGOMERY.  O 48.7%, D 43.5%.  Safe-ish R.
District 29: NORRISTOWN-LANSDALE-MONTGOMERY CENTRAL.  O 61.1%, D 57.0%.  68W/15B.  Safe D.
District 30: POTTSTOWN-LIMERICK.  O 56.8%, D 51.3%.  Lean D I guess.

Bucks County has five whole districts and one shared with Northampton, so all in all two districts split counties in SEPA.
District 31:  BENSALEM- LOWER BUCKS WEST.  O 52.8%, D 52.2%.  Tossup.
District 32:  BRISTOL- LOWER BUCKS CENTRAL.  O 61.2%, D 61.6%.  Safe D.
District 33:  FALLS-LOWER BUCKS EAST.  O 56.1%, D 54.4%.  Lean D.
District 34: DOYLESTOWN-CENTRAL BUCKS.  O 51.3%, D 49.0%.  Erm…it's closely divided and swingy like Bucks in general, but I think there's a bit of an R lean.
District 35:  MID-UPPER BUCKS. O 49.1%, D 45.4%.  Lean R; McCain won this by less than a point.
District 36: EASTON-QUAKERTOWN.  O 55.9%, D 53.6%.  Our first county-spanning district.  Lean D.



Panning north to "greater SEPA", Berks shares one district with Chester and has three to itself.  In the Lehigh Valley, Lehigh has three (slightly overpopulated) districts to itself, and Northampton has two whole districts in addition to Easton-Quakertown.
District 37: CHESTER NORTHWEST-OLEY VALLEY-BERKS SOUTH.  O 46.9%, D 43.6%.  Safe R.
District 38: READING-CUMRU.  O  71.2%, D 66.9%.  50W/39H.  Actually Hispanic-plurality by total population.  Cumru has a tiny exclave surrounded by Reading, so it became the obvious choice to fill population (along with another tiny boro or two).  Safe D.
District 39: READING SUBURBS.  O 53.5%, D 50.2%.  Tossup.
District 40: BERKS NORTH.  O 45.8%, D 42.8%.  Safe R.
District 41: LEHIGH WEST.  O 48.3%, D 45.3%.  A strong Lean R.
District 42: LEHIGH EAST.  O 55.5%, D 54.2%.  Includes the Lehigh portion of Bethlehem.  Lean D.
District 43: ALLENTOWN.  O 71.9%, D 67.4%.  51W/36H.  The state's third largest city fits a district quite well, just a bit overpopulated.  Lucky how that worked out.  Safe D.
District 44: BETHLEHEM-NORTHAMPTON SOUTH.  O 59.8%, D 58.7%. 77W/14H.  Safe D.
District 45: NORTHAMPTON NORTH.  O 48.9%, D 49.3%.  Lean R.



Going north, following the contours of the Appalachians/Poconos, we have four districts for four counties, only two splits.  The more anthracite-y Schuylkill and Carbon share two; the more tourist-y Monroe and Pike also share two.
District 46: POTTSVILLE-SCHUYLKILL WEST.  O 44.4%, D 45.3%.  Pretty much Safe R, Tim Holden notwithstanding.
District 47: CARBON-SCHUYLKILL EAST. O 48.6%, D 50.1%.  Tossup.
District 48: EAST STROUDSBURG-MONROE SOUTH.  O 56.4%, D 52.3%.  Lean D.
District 49: POCONOS-MONROE-NORTH-PIKE.  O 53.5%, D 49.1%  76W/10B/11H.  A surprisingly high minority population for a Northern non-urban district, which has its roots in a string of integrated resorts round these parts that would actually accept black people's money back in the day.  Tossup.

The Scranton-Wilkes-Barre metro has six districts.  Lackawanna has exactly two (underpopulated) districts; Luzerne has two districts and one it shares with Wyoming, and the rest of Wyoming goes in a rural district with two non-metro counties.
District 50: WAYNE-SUSQUEHANNA-WYOMING NORTH.  O 44.1%, D 40.5%.  The rural district.  Safe R.
District 51: LACKAWANNA NORTH AND EAST.  O 59.8%, D 58.0%.  Safe D.
District 52: SCRANTON.  O 65.8%, D 63.3%.  Not *just* Scranton, but it dominates.  Safe D.
District 53: LUZERNE NORTH-WYOMING SOUTH.  O 54.3%, D 54.6%.  Lean D.
District 54: WILKES-BARRE-LUZERNE CENTER.  O 59.8%, D 62.3%.  Safe D.
District 55: HAZLETON-LUZERNE SOUTH AND WEST.  O 45.3%, D 47.3%.  Lean R I guess… but probably heading safe-wards.

The rest in Part 2.

[traininthedistance]

PA Part 2.



Switching gears to south-central PA, as the colors roll over.  Lancaster and Lebanon together are six (underpopulated) districts; one Lebanon, four Lancaster, and one shared.
District 56: LEBANON NORTH, EAST AND CITY.  O 40.2%, D 36.5%.  IOW "most of Lebanon".  Safe R.
District 57: LANCASTER NORTHWEST-LEBANON SOUTHWEST.  O 37.1%, D 31.2%.  Safe R.
District 58: EPHRATA-LANCASTER NORTHEAST.  O 33.0%, D 27.6%.  Safe R.
District 59: HEMPFIELD- LANCASTER WEST-CENTRAL.  O 47.0%, D 39.7%.  That's a pretty modest McCain margin… but no just no.  Safe R.
District 60: LANCASTER CENTER.  O 62.2%, D 54.3%.  66W/21H.  Lancaster city & twp, and Manheim.  That's it.  Safe D.
District 61: LANCASTER SOUTH.  O 34.6%, D 29.2%.  Safe R.

York is exactly four districts, modestly underpopulated.
District 62: YORK SOUTHEAST.  O 38.6% D 35.1%.  Safe R.
District 63: YORK CENTER.  O 57.1%, D 51.1%.  The city and immediate surroundings.  Lean D.
District 64: YORK SOUTHWEST.  O 39.2%, D 36.0%.  Safe R.
District 65: YORK NORTH.  O 37.5%, D 34.0%.  Safe R.

Adams and Carlisle together make three districts.  Technically, Adams *could* be one, underpopulated-to-the-maxx, district, and Carlisle could be two modestly large districts.  But I didn't like the idea of 11K deviations, wanted to keep everything to four digits.  (Spoiler alert: As it turns out there is one Allegheny district that is just over that mark, since I painted myself into a corner and the Allegheny districts are all heavily overpopulated to make up for modest underpopulations in areas like this.)  The rest of the Harrisburg metro is found in the Dauphin districts; two entirely in the county and one shared with Perry and Juniata (non-metro county).
District 66: ADAMS-SHIPPENSBURG.  O 40.7%, D 38.1%.  Safe R.
District 67: CARLISLE-CUMBERLAND WEST.  O 41.2%, D 37.7%.  Safe R.
District 68: CUMBERLAND EAST.  O 43.3%, D 38.8%.  Safe R.
District 69: HARRISBURG-DAUPHIN SOUTH.  O 65.7%, D 59.9%. 58W/28B.  Safe D.
District 70: HERSHEY-DAUPHIN MIDDLE.  O 50.3%, D 44.7%.  Lean R.
District 71: DAUPHIN NORTH-PERRY-JUNIATA.   O 33.4%, D 32.3%.  Safe R.



North-central PA/Northern Tier has two county splits for eight districts; Center has to be split since it's too big, and I wasn't able to avoid one more, in Northumberland.
District 72: COLUMBIA-NORTHUMBERLAND NORTH-MONTOUR.  O 44.5%, D 43.2%.  Aka "Bloomsburg".  Safe R.
District 73: NORTHUMBERLAND SOUTH-MONTOUR  O 40.3%, D 40.0%.  Aka "Sunbury".  Safe R.
District 74: LYCOMING.  O 37.3%, D 36.2%.  Aka "Williamsport".  Safe R.
District 75: BRADFORD-TIOGA-SULLIVAN.  O 38.2%, D 35.1%.  Aka "Northern Tier East".  Safe R
District 76: CLINTON-UNION-CENTRE NORTH.  O 43.8%, D 43.4%.  Aka "Lock Haven-Lewisburg".  Safe R.
District 77: STATE COLLEGE. O 58.4%, D 55.5%.  Entirely within Centre.  Lean D.
District 78: WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-CAMERON.  O 41.1.%, D 39.3%.  Aka "Northern Tier West".  Safe R.
District 79: CLEARFIELD-ELK.  O 45.4%, D 48.3%.  Merely Lean R!



Moving south, the super-ridge-y parts sort of nestled in between South Central and Western that I don't have a great name for (I guess some of this is South Central too).  Six districts for eight counties; the three larger than a district counties (Franklin, Blair, Cambria) are split and that's it.
District 80: CHAMBERSBURG-FRANKLIN EAST.  O 35.7%, D 34.2%.  Safe R.
District 81: FRANKLIN WEST-BEDFORD-FULTON.  O 26.8%, D 29.7%.  Safe R.
District 82: MIFFLIN-HUNTINGDON-BLAIR EAST.  O 33.0%, D 33.5%.  Safe R.
District 83: ALTOONA-BLAIR WEST.  O 39.1%, D 39.0%.  Safe R.
District 84: JOHNSTOWN-CAMBRIA NORTH AND EAST.  O 51.5%, D 58.2%.  Really, most of Cambria save a couple Johnstown burbs.  Lean D.
District 85: SOMERSET-CAMBRIA SOUTHWEST.  O 39.1%, D 44.3%.  Safe R.



My beautiful county split luck starts to run out in Western PA.  We have one large county group to the east and south of Allegheny: six districts in five counties, with three splits.  Three are entirely in Washington, one in Indiana and north, one in the extreme southwest, and one ugly ducking that takes all the splits for itself.
District 86: INDIANA NORTH AND CENTER-JEFFERSON.  O 41.7%, D 43.7%.  Safe R.
District 87: WESTMORELAND, FAYETTE, AND INDIANA WEST.  O 42.1%, D 48.0%.  The ugly duckling.  It kinda makes sense given the geography of the place, at least.  Safe R, I think, despite the close D average.
District 88: GREENSBURG-LATROBE-WESTMORELAND CENTER.  O 39.3%, D 44.5%.  Safe R.
District 89: WESTMORELAND NORTHWEST.  O 41.7%, D 47.0%.  Safe R.
District 90: WESTMORELAND SOUTHWEST.  O 42.8%, D 50.5%.  I can't call something Safe R with a D average… can I?  Not yet.  Lean R.
District 91: FAYETTE WEST-GREENE.  O 52.3%, D 60.8%.  The extreme southwest.  Lean D.



Taken in isolation, Washington can be two very-underpopulated districts, and Allegheny can be eleven districts.  But the rest of the state has needed far more underpopulated areas than overpopulated areas, and here's where the chickens come home to roost.  Allegheny must be ten districts, all overpopulated; Washington is one overpopulated district and there is one shared between the two (mostly in Washington).  Pittsburgh's three districts all have a couple small areas outside the city boundaries, at least one of them is absolutely unavoidable in any map.
District 92: WASHINGTON SOUTH. O 51.0%, D 56.9%.  Lean D.
District 93: WASHINGTON NORTH-AIRPORT.  O 42.7%, D 47.5%.  Safe R.
District 94: MON VALLEY EAST.  O 59.1%, D 63.5%.  82W/15B.  Safe D.
District 95: PENN HILLS-MONROEVILLE-PLUM.  O 54.2%, D 57.2%.  81W/15B.  And some smaller towns.  Lean D.
District 96: MON VALLEY WEST.  O 56.2%, D 61.9%.  Would've loved to keep the three rivers as boundaries all through the county, but only the Monogahela, to Pittsburgh's southeast, really worked.  Safe D.
District 97: SOUTH HILLS.  O 44.1%, D 46.8%.  Bethel Park, Upper St. Clair, etc.  Safe R.
District 98: WEST HILLS. O 54.5%, D 57.1%.  Lean D.
District 99: PITTSBURGH EAST.  O 81.3%, D 80.8%.  59W/32B.  You would be able to get a black-plurality district in Pittsburgh if you threw ward boundaries, municipal lines, and compactness to the winds, as it is this is the blackest district in Western PA.  Also includes Wilkinsburg and Aspinwall.  Safe D.
District 100: PITTSBURGH WEST AND NORTH.  O 65.0%, D 68.1%.  77W/18B.  Includes several other small towns.  Safe D.
District 101: PITTSBURGH CENTER.  O 75.9%, D 76.0%.  71W/19B.  Includes the surrounded borough of Mt. Oliver, but that's it.  Safe D.
District 102: NORTH HILLS WEST.  O 42.9%, D 43.4%.  Safe R.
District 103: NORTH HILLS EAST. O 45.1%, D 48.2%.  Lean R.

As for the northern suburban counties… Armstrong and rural Clarion make one; Beaver/Butler/Lawrence make four districts between them.
District 104: ARMSTRONG-CLARION.  O 37.4%, D 41.7%.  Safe R.
District 105: BUTLER NORTH AND EAST.  O 37.9%, D 42.0%.  Butler is about a district and a half, this is the full district.  Safe R.
District 106: BUTLER SOUTHWEST-BEAVER NORTHEAST.  O 35.7%, D 38.7%.  Safe R.
District 107: ALIQUIPPA- BEAVER SOUTH.  O 50.5%, D 57.4%.  And the all-Beaver district.  Tossup.
District 108: LAWRENCE-BEAVER NORTHWEST.  O 45.6%, D 49.5%.  Lawrence is the baby of this group, so it has to take part of Beaver as well.  Lean R.



And the northwest.  Mercer is its own district, and the last four underpopulated districts for four counties, two of them are all-Erie.
District 109: MERCER.  O 49.1%, D 51.0%.  McCain won this by 154 votes.  Tossup.
District 110: VENANGO-CRAWFORD EAST-FOREST.  O 40.0%, D 39.7%.  Safe R.
District 111: CRAWFORD WEST-ERIE SOUTH.  O 50.6%, D 47.4%.  Lean R.
District 112: ERIE SUBURBS. O 53.7%, D 49.2%.  Tossup.
District 113: ERIE. O 71.3%, D 67.0%.  78W/14B.  Also includes Wesleyville.  Safe D.

35 Safe D
17 Lean D
8 Tossup
14 Lean R
39 Safe R

Obviously, a bit R-skewed due to the natural packing.

[traininthedistance]

New Mexico in eighteen.  Max deviation is only 5,402, way better than PA.  Except for Chavez, each of the six split counties are large enough to be filled with whole districts otherwise.  (Sandoval and Bernalillo technically each have one extra, unavoidable split.)



District 1: FARMINGTON-SAN JUAN NORTH.  O 33.5%. D 31.9%.  54W/19H/26 Native; min-maj by total population.  The white and hyper-Republican part of San Juan, which is surrounded by Native precincts in all directions, is large enough to anchor a district, but not large enough to fill one.  So some of the rez gets thrown in here, alack.  Safe R.
District 2: NAVAJO.  O 69.8%, D 69.1%.  14W/17H/67N.  Cibola, McKinley, and the rest of San Juan.  There are enough Native voters, packed efficiently enough, that you could probably do two districts if you got ugly.  I decided not to get ugly.  Safe D.
District 3: TAOS-NORTHERN.  O 69.9%, D 66.9%.  34W/57H.  Rio Arriba, Taos, Colfax, Mora, Union, Harding, Quay.  Mostly heavily Hispanic Northern NM, with some northeastern plains for population.  Safe D.
District 4: CLOVIS-PORTALES-LAS VEGAS.  O 48.8%, D 46.9%.  47W/47H; Hispanic-majority by total population.  A mix of eastern plains and Hispanic mountain areas; also takes areas north of Roswell in Chavez, since something needs to be split there.  Lean R.
District 5: CARLSBAD-HOBBS.  O 32.6%, D 35.0%.  53W/43H; Hispanic-plurality by total population.  Eddy and Lea counties, the heart of "Little Texas".  Safe R.
District 6: ROSWELL-ALAMOGORDO.  O 39.5%, D 37.2%.  53W/39H; min-maj by total population.  Most of Chavez and all of Otero.  Safe R.
District 7: DOÑA ANA SOUTHEAST.  O 59.3%, D 55.8%.  37W/58H.  No good way to split Doña Ana without splitting Las Cruces too, given the shape of the road network.  Most of the city is in this denser district of the two, more Dem yet less Hispanic.  Safe D.
District 8: DOÑA ANA NORTH AND WEST-SIERRA.  O 54.6%, D 51.4%.  38W/59H.  Lean D.
District 9: RURAL SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL.  O 50.2%, D 48.9%.  54W/41H; min-maj by total population.  Seven counties, no major population centers to speak of (the largest is…Deming).  Tossup.
District 10: VALENCIA-BERNALILLO SOUTH.  O 56.7%, D 52.5%.  36W/55H.  And now we enter the Albuquerque area.  Lean D.



District 11: BERNALILLO WEST BANK-SOUTHSIDE.  O 62.8%, D 56.9%.  32W/60H.  11 and 12 are most of the county west of the Rio Grande.  It's hard to follow Albuquerque town lines here, and the division into an east-west split rather than north-south helps make another Hispanic district.  Safe D.
District 12: BERNALILLO PETROGLYPH-VOLCANO.  O 60.9%, D 52.7%.  30W/61H.  Functionally almost entirely within Albuquerque, as it so happens.  Lean D.
District 13: ALBUQUERQUE CENTER.  O 76.1%, D 71.8%.  38W/50H.  And, likewise, the line between 13 and 14 helps us get our last Hispanic-majority district.  Safe D.
District 14: ALBUQUERQUE UPTOWN.  O 58.6%, D 53.3%.  59W/29H.  Lean D.
District 15: BERNALILLO EAST-SANDIA.  O 47.3%, D 41.2%.  72W/20H.  Safe R.
District 16: RIO RANCHO CENTER-LOS RANCHOS DE ALBUQUERQUE. O 55.4%, D 50.1%. 55W/36H.  The Bernalillo-Sandoval district, along the Rio Grande.  Tossup.
District 17: SANDOVAL OUTER-LOS ALAMOS-SANTA FE SOUTH.  O 59.3%, D 53.6%.  54W/29H/12N.  My first draft tried to have 16 be all-Sandoval, with 17 hooking around to the Sandia Mountains in Bernalillo instead, keeping 15 within Albuquerque.  It was better for town integrity, but the road connections were dodgy and I'd have to split up the Sandoval pueblos.  So I went with this.  Lean D.
District 18: SANTA FE NORTH AND CENTER.  O 80.0%, D 74.3%.  46W/49H; Hispanic maj by total population.  Safe D.

6 Safe D, 5 Lean D, 2 Tossup, 1 Lean R, 4 Safe R

[traininthedistance]

Maryland!  Word of warning: precincts do not line up with town lines in DRA very well; in many cases this is because they're merely CDPs and you don't have that much municipal gov't here, but I don't think that's always true.  I did my best.



Four districts fit on the Eastern Shore; Wicomico has to be split.
District 1: OCEAN CITY-EASTERN SHORE SOUTH.  O 41.6%, D 43.6%.  75W/20B.  All of Worcester and Somerset; Wicomico east of Salisbury.  Safe R.
District 2: SALISBURY-CAMBRIDGE.  O 49.1%, D 49.3%.  66W/26B.  Most of Wicomico and Dorchester.  Lean R.
District 3: BAY BRIDGE-EASTERN SHORE CENTRAL.  O 39.3%, D 42.9%.  84W/11B.  Queen Anne's, Talbot, Caroline.  Safe R.
District 4: CECIL-KENT.  O 43.2%, D 46.3%.  At +10,275, this district has the highest deviation in the state.  But, hey, whole counties and it keeps the Eastern Shore whole, that's almost worth it.  Safe R.



Baltimore County, Harford, and Baltimore City all don't divide well.  Harford (which is trapped behind BaltCo) must be two and part of a third, Baltimore City must be five and part of a sixth, Baltimore County could, in isolation, probably just barely work with seven or eight but would rather have a split.  So they're combined for a Baltimore-area group.  BaltCo has six alone and shares one each with Harford and Baltimore City.

District 5: ABERDEEN-HARFORD SOUTH.  O 52.4%, D 56.4%. 69W/22B.  Along the coast.  Lean D.
District 6: BEL AIR- HARFORD NORTH.  O 33.1%, D 36.0%.  Safe R.
District 7: BALTCO NORTH-HARFORD WEST. 33.5%, D 36.0%.  The split district, mostly within BaltCo.  I guess Perry Hall is the largest place-name here?  But BaltCo has no incorporated munis, not worth adding it.  Safe R.
District 8: BALTCO DUNDALK-ESSEX.  O 45.5%, D 58.3%.  An obvious district.  Also, lawl.  Um… Tossup?  That's a rather wide gap between the numbers, and not in the direction one normally sees.  Except it is expected round these parts.
District 9: BALTCO EAST-CENTRAL.  O 46.4%, D 53.9%.  71W/18B.  Middle River, Rosedale, etc.  Still don't know what to do with these numbers… Tossup again.
District 10: BALTCO CENTRAL-TOWSON.  O 54.5%, D 58.5%.  75W/15B.  Lean D.
District 11: BALTCO NORTHCENTRAL-PIKESVILLE-COCKEYSVILLE.  O 51.3%, D 57.1%. 78W/10B.  Geez, all of these districts have a strong D average and anemic Obama numbers.  I have to imagine a Pub would take at least one of them, eventually, 9 most likely.  Eh, Lean D.
District 12: BALTCO NORTHWEST-RANDALLSTOWN-OWINGS MILLS.  O 75.9%, D 75.0%.  41W/47B.  Our first of many min-maj districts, black plurality.  Not as many as one might hope, though, the population is pretty heavily packed.  Safe D.
District 13: BALTCO WESTCENTRAL-WOODLAWN-MILFORD MILL.  O 81.4%, D 78.8%.  30W/58B.  Safe D.
District 14: BALTCO SOUTH- BALTIMORE FAR WEST. O 75.2%, D 74.8%.  39W/53B. The other split district.  Safe D.
District 15: BALTIMORE SOUTHEAST.  O 88.5%, D 87.6%.  24W/64B.  Safe D.
District 16: BALTIMORE NORTHEAST.  O 90.0%, D 88.0%.  23W/72B.  Safe D.
District 17: BALTIMORE NORTH AND CENTER.  O 75.1%, D 77.0%.  68W/18B.  Largely the wedge of whites plus downtown and Locust Point.  I dunno, maybe I should have broken it up to get another black district.  Safe D.
District 18: BALTIMORE NORTHWEST.  O 89.7%, D 88.8%.  18W/77B.  Safe D.
District 19: BALTIMORE NEAR WEST AND SOUTH.  O 88.8%, D 87.8%.  29W/63B.  Safe D.



Anne Arundel has five districts, underpopulated somewhat.
District 20: ANNE ARUNDEL NORTHEAST- SEVERNA PARK.  O 39.7%, D 42.3%.  Safe R.
District 21: ANNE ARUNDEL NORTH-LINTHICUM.  O 43.7%, D 51.6%.  78W/12B.  I don't really believe the Dem average here… but let's say Lean R anyway.
District 22: ANNE ARUNDEL WEST-SEVERN.  O 63.0%, D 63.5%,  51W/33B.  Min-maj by total population.  Safe D.
District 23: ANNE ARUNDEL CENTER-ANNAPOLIS.  O 54.4%, D 55.8%.  72W/15B.  The long thin shape is mostly just following the peninsula Annapolis sits on.  Lean D.
District 24: ANNE ARUNDEL SOUTH-CROFTON.  O 45.5%, D 49.4%.  Ehh… Safe R, though I can see an argument for Lean.



Southern MD has three districts for three counties; St. Mary's fits one, and Charles donates some land to Calvert.  Following county lines makes 26 look kind of weird, but there is a bridge at least between them.
District 25: ST. MARY'S.  O 42.9%, D 51.1%.  79W/14B.  I'm assuming the high D average is all personal votes for Steny Hoyer and we can pencil this in as Safe R unless he actually runs here.
District 26: CALVERT-CHARLES EAST.  O 45.8%, D 51.2%.  80W/15B.  Lean R, though don't ask me why I consider this to be any different from 24 and 25.
District 27: ST. CHARLES- LA PLATA.  O 66.8%, D 68.7%.  47W/43B.  Black-plurality by total population.  Safe D.

Prince George's has eight districts.
District 28: PRINCE GEORGE'S SOUTH-CLINTON.  O 90.4%, D 88.9%.  14W/73B.  Safe D.
District 29: PRINCE GEORGE'S BELTWAY SOUTH-SUITLAND.  O 96.5%, D 94.6%.  88B.  Yoinks.  But, of course, it's also surrounded by supermajority black districts.  Safe D.
District 30: PRINCE GEORGE'S EAST-BOWIE.  O 81.8%, D 81.5%.  28W/62B.  Safe D.
District 31: PRINCE GEORGE'S BELTWAY SOUTHCENTRAL-DISTRICT HEIGHTS.  O 96.9%, D 94.9%.  87B.  Yoinks again.  Safe D.
District 32: PRINCE GEORGE'S BELTWAY NORTHCENTRAL- NEW CARROLTON.  O 94.0%, D 92.3%.  71B/16H.  Safe D.
District 33: PRINCE GEORGE'S BELTWAY NORTH- CHILLUM.  O 89.1%, D 88.8%.  11W/38B/46H.  Hispanic plurality!  Only one in the state.  Safe D.
District 34: PRINCE GEORGE'S NORTHCENTRAL-GREENBELT.  O 85.3%, D 84.0%.  22W/57B/12H.  Our final black-majority district.  Safe D.
District 35: PRINCE GEORGE'S NORTHWEST-COLLEGE PARK.  O 76.0%, D 76.5%.  41W/27B/18H/11A.  As Repub as it gets in PG… Safe D.



Montgomery has nine.
District 36: MONTGOMERY SOUTH-SILVER SPRING-TAKOMA PARK.  O 84.5%, D 84.3%.  48W/24B/19H.  Safe D.
District 37: MONTGOMERY SOUTH-BETHESDA.  O 74.9%, D 75.3%.  77W/10A.  Safe D.
District 38: MONTGOMERY EAST- SILVER SPRING NORTH.  O 77.2%, D 76.9%.  38W/33B/13H/14A.  Black-plurality by total population; apparently all the unincorporated CDPs that make up this district just call themselves "Silver Spring" most of the time.  Who knew.  Safe D.
District 39: MONTGOMERY CENTER-WHEATON.  O 75.6%, D 76.6%.  37W/17B/31H/12A.  Hispanic-plurality by total population.  Safe D.
District 40: MONTGOMERY CENTER-ROCKVILLE.  O 70.8%, D 71.5%.  52W/10B/16H/21A.  Min-maj by total population.  Safe D.
District 41: MONTGOMERY NORTH-OLNEY.  O 61.2%, D 62.7%.  64W/14B/10H/10A.  Lots of diverse districts in Montgomery; this is one of the whitest.  Safe D.
District 42: MONTGOMERY CENTRAL-GAITHERSBURG.  O 71.1%, D 70.1%.  41W/18B/24H/15A.  Safe D.
District 43: MONTGOMERY NORTH- GERMANTOWN.  O 69.2%, D 67.9%.  44W/19B/16H/19A.  Safe D.
District 44: MONTGOMERY WEST- POTOMAC. O 64.4%, D 65.7%.  65W/23A.  Safe D.



Howard kinda gets stuck with the north and west, and you need to split this area an unlovely number of times.  Howard has two whole districts, Carroll has one, Frederick has one.  Then there's a Howard-Frederick-Carroll district, and a Frederick-Washington district.  And they're all overpopulated a bunch.  C'est la vie.  At least the rest of Washington is whole, and the westernmost two counties of the Panhandle- Garrett and Allegany- are one whole district.
District 45: HOWARD CENTER-COLUMBIA.  O 71.2%, D 70.0%.  55W/23B/11A.  Safe D.
District 46: HOWARD NORTH-ELLICOTT CITY.  O 55.9%, D 55.7%.  62W/13B/18A.  Lean D.
District 47: HOWARD WEST-CARROLL SOUTH-MT. AIRY.  O 39.8%, D 39.4%  The tri-county district; some southern Carroll and very little of Frederick.  Safe R.
District 48: CARROLL NORTH AND CENTER.  O 32.6%, D 32.8%.  Safe R.
District 49: FREDERICK CITY AND SOUTH.  O 57.7%, D 53.0%.  70W/13B/10H.  Lean D.
District 50: FREDERICK OUTER-WASHINGTON EAST.  O 39.9%, D 38.6%.  Safe R.
District 51: WASHINGTON WEST-HAGERSTOWN.  O 44.3%, D 43.1%.  83W/11B.  Safe R.
District 52: ALLEGANY-GARRETT.  O 34.0%, D 36.3%.  aka "Cumberland".  Safe R.

28 Safe D
6 Lean D
2 Tossup
3 Lean R
13 Safe R

[traininthedistance]

Train, your names sound more British than Canadian.

I freely admit that the subtleties in differing naming conventions have so far escaped me.  What would make them more "Canadian"?

[traininthedistance]

Thanks, I'll keep all that in mind if/when I put up any other states.

[traininthedistance]

Ohio!  Bet you didn't expect this one to be next.



Lots of cities are split here: Cincy, Dayton, Toledo, Columbus, Cleveland, Akron are all too large for a single district.  Most of them are split more than "strictly" necessary, to massage the numbers in outlying districts, or to maximize VRA opportunities (especially blatant on the East Side of Cleveland), or to try and minimize non-contiguous bits of surrounding/surrounded townships (especially important in Columbus, which is crazycakes).  Some noncontiguous bits slipped through anyway.  Several other smaller townships ended up split as well, for lack of better options.

Max deviation is pretty high- minus 10,957, near the limit- getting county splits down saw to that.

Starting in the southwest; the Cincy metro.



Hamilton has seven districts, all close to even.

District 1: ANDERSON-MADIERA.  O 38.9%, D 38.1%.  The eastern edge of Hamilton; Indian Hill might be the best-known placename, and take up a lot of space, but there aren't actually that many people there.  Safe R.
District 2: FOREST PARK-SHARONVILLE.  O 55.0%, D 51.8%.  66W/25B.  North of Cincy; lots of small towns none of which dominate.  County directionals (which apparently Canada doesn't like) were made for suburban districts like this.  Lean D.
District 3: CINCINNATI EAST.  O 63.%, D 60.7%.  73W/22B.  Contains several munis surrounded by the city, Norwood the largest.  Safe D.
District 4: CINCINNATI WEST-CENTER.  O 72.6%, D 65.6%.  53W/41B.  Min-maj by total population; entirely within city limits.  Safe D.
District 5: CINCINNATI NORTH.  O 80.6%, D 73.7%.  42W/51B.  Splits Springfield with 7, but strictly along CDP lines.  Black-majority.  Safe D.
District 6: GREEN-DEHLI.  O 27.0%, D 28.3%. Aka southwestern Hamilton.  Safe R.
District 7: COLERAIN-SPRINGFIELD.  O 42.6%, D 41.2%.  79W/18B.  Aka northwestern Hamilton.  Safe R.

Clermont and Brown, to the east of Cincy (and both in the MSA), are together two districts.  Warren, to Hamilton's northeast, is two whole districts.  And Butler, directly to the north, is three whole districts.  Warren is underpopulated and the others are overpopulated.  That's the rest of the MSA.

District 8: BROWN-CLERMONT.  O 34.7%, D 41.1%.  The split district; "Brown-Clermont South" would be better if we were allowed directionals.  Safe R.
District 9: MIAMI-UNION.  O 33.1%, D 36.0%.  The all-Clermont district; mostly more developed areas to the west and north.  Safe R.
District 10: MASON.  O 32.9%, D 33.6%.  The southern third of Warren; the irregular city lines of Lebanon from 11 means there are small exclaves between 10 and 11; you see this every once in awhile in the Midwest and I won't bother commenting on most of them.  Safe R.
District 11: FRANKLIN-LEBANON.  O 29.9%, D 34.1%.  The north of Warren.  Safe R.
District 12: HAMILTON-OXFORD.  O 40.8%, D 44.4%.  Moving to Butler.  Fairfield township (separate from the city) is split between this and 13; since it has several noncontiguous pieces, and you have large munis, and it's all rather near the upper population limit, something had to give.  Safe R.
District 13: WEST CHESTER-FAIRFIELD.  O 36.2%, D 33.6%.  Southeast Butler.  Safe R.
District 14: MIDDLETOWN.  O 37.4%, D 40.1%.  Northeast Butler. Safe R.

Dayton-Springfield-Xenia.


Montgomery County (Dayton) has four districts and one it shares with Preble.
District 15: PREBLE-ENGLEWOOD.  O 36.1%, D 39.8%.  Preble County and the western, more rural third of Montgomery.  Another district where I wish directionals were allowed.  Safe R.
District 16: HUBER HEIGHTS-TROTWOOD.  O 61.4%, D 59.3%.  63W/33B.  Includes small parts of Dayton, such as the airport and smoothing out the very jagged western edge.  Safe D.
District 17: WASHINGTON-MIAMI.  O 39.0%, D 38.5%.  Or you can call this "Miamisburg-Centerville", but there's actually more population in the non-incorporated township parts.  Southern Montgomery.  Safe R.
District 18: KETTERING.  O 45.2%, D 45.5%.  Like 16, includes small parts of Dayton.  Lean R.
District 19: DAYTON CENTER.  O 78.8%, D 73.2%. 51W/44B.  Entirely within the city; plurality-black by total population.  Safe D.

To the west of Dayton, Clarke (Springfield), Greene (Xenia), and Clinton (Wilmington) share three districts, with one that crosses county lines.  Miami (Troy/Piqua/Tipp City), to the north, is its own district (albeit a quite underpopulated one).
District 20: XENIA-WILMINGTON.  O 39.0%, D 39.7%.  All of Clinton, most of Greene's land (but not most of its population).  Safe R.
District 21: BEAVERCREEK-FAIRBORN.  O 38.5%, D 40.0%.  The split district.  Safe R.
District 22: SPRINGFIELD.  O 50.9%, D 51.8%.  The rest of Clark.  Tossup.
District 23: MIAMI COUNTY.  O 34.8%, D 37.8%.  Do I have to call this "Troy" since Miami is such a common placename in southwestern Ohio?  Safe R.



The rural northwest, going north.  All whole counties until you get to Lucas.
District 24: DARKE-SHELBY.  O 30.9%, D 36.0%.  Towns include Greenville and Sidney.  Safe R.
District 25: LOGAN-CHAMPAIGN-HARDIN.  O 37.5%, D 41.1%.  Includes Bellefontaine, Urbana, Kenton.  Safe R.
District 26: AUGLAIZE-MERCER-VAN WERT.  O 29.9%, D 34.1%.  Includes Wapakoneta and Van Wert.  Safe R.
District 27: ALLEN.  O 38.8%, D 43.9%.  Home to Lima, one of the smallest television markets in the nation.  Safe R.
District 28: DEFIANCE-PUTNAM-HENRY-PAULDING.  O 38.7%, D 40.5%.  I guess Defiance is the largest town here.  Safe R.
District 29: FULTON-WILLIAMS-WATERVILLE.  O 45.6%, D 45.4%.  Includes the western edge of Lucas.  Lean R.



The Toledo area; there are three all-Lucas districts and one all-Wood district; Lucas is split on both ends, as seen in 29 above and a Lucas-Wood district (since Wood is too large).
District 30: SYLVANIA-SPRINGFIELD-MAUMEE.  O 49.7%, D 55.5%.  The suburbs east of Toledo.  Tossup.
District 31: TOLEDO WEST.  O 64.4%, D 68.8%.  80W/13B.  The odd shape allows for 32 to be black-plurality.  Safe D.
District 32: TOLEDO CENTER.  O 84.0%, D 83.7%.  Black-plurality.  Safe D.
District 33: TOLEDO EAST-OREGON.  O 66.6%, D 70.7%.  The Lucas-Wood district.  Safe D.
District 34: BOWLING GREEN.  O 51.9%, D 50.1%.  Wood could make one overpopulated district by itself, but 33 needs more people (and the Lucas districts are underpopulated as it is).  Tossup.



North-central Ohio.  Two county splits in this area: Richland (Mansfield) is too large for one district; and district 35 was hemmed in, requiring a split of Crawford (Bucyrus) with 40.
District 35: HANCOCK-WYANDOT-BUCYRUS.  O 37.7%, D 38.3%.  Findlay is the largest town here; splits Crawford with 40.  Safe R.
District 36: ERIE-OTTAWA.  O 54.7%, D 62.2%.  The lake shore; Sandusky is the largest town.  Lean D I think.
District 37: SANDUSKY-SENECA.  O 49.6%, D 48.7%.  Fremont and Tiffin are the main towns.  Tossup (Obama did win this).
District 38: HURON-ASHLAND.  O 41.9%, D 45.6%.  Includes a small portion of Richland, but no sizable towns, so I just left it out of the name.  Safe R.
District 39: MANSFIELD.  O 42.4%, D 49.3%.  The vast majority of Richland County.  Why is this Dem average near even?  An artifact of Zach Space's brief tenure in Congress?  I'm guessing it should be Safe R anyway.
District 40: KNOX-MORROW-GALION.  O 39.2%, D 44.9%.  Mount Vernon is the largest town here, which starts to encroach onto the Columbus MSA.  Knox and Morrow could be an underpopulated district by themselves, but 35 needs the split.  Safe R.
District 41: MARION-UNION.  O 40.1%, D 43.0%.  Another northern Columbus outskirts district; Marion and Marysville (out of view) are the main towns.  Safe R.

More in Part II.

[traininthedistance]

Columbus area.  Delaware (to the north) and Licking (to the northwest) share three districts between them.  Franklin County then has ten districts.  I drew them with the aim of not splitting any non-Columbus townships, minimizing weird exclaves (can't eliminate them all though), and making two black-majority districts (Franklin is over 20% black, and the AA population is reasonably compact).

District 42: DELAWARE-ORANGE.  O 41.4%, D 39.4%.  The all-Delaware district.  Safe R.
District 43: GENOA-PATASKALA.  O 37.2%, D 37.4%.  The Delaware-Licking district.  Safe R.
District 44: NEWARK.  O 43.0%, D 47.1%.  The all-Licking district.  Safe R.
District 45: WESTERVILLE-COLUMBUS NORTHEAST.  O 57.1%, D 53.1%.  68W/23B.  Lean D.
District 46: GAHANNA-REYNOLDSBURG-NEW ALBANY.  O 52.5%, D 49.7%.  75W/17B. Tries to mostly stay out of Columbus proper, which is of course a fool's errand here.  Tossup.
District 47: WORTHINGTON-COLUMBUS NORTHWEST.  O 54.5%, D 52.0%.  Lean D.
District 48: WHITEHALL-COLUMBUS LINDEN-AIRPORT.  O 81.0%, D 77.0%.  40W/51B.  The "near northeast".  Black-majority, Safe D.
District 49: UPPER ARLINGTON- COLUMBUS UNIVERSITY-CLINTONVILLE.  O 61.2%, D 60.2%.  The "near northwest".  The hook over 48 is trying to get all those islands of Clinton Twp. in one district. Safe D.
District 50: BEXLEY-COLUMBUS EAST.  O 82.6%, D 78.1%.  38B/54B.  The "near southeast".  Black-majority, Safe D.
District 51: COLUMBUS HILLTOP-SOUTHWEST-GRANDVIEW.  O 59.9%, D 61.4%.  76W/14B.  Safe D.
District 52: DUBLIN-HILLIARD.  O 46.0%, D 43.9%.  Erm… Safe R, though perhaps not forever.
District 53: GROVE CITY-COLUMBUS WESTLAND.  O 44.9%, D 47.4%  The southwest.  Eh, Lean R though maybe safe would be better.
District 54: COLUMBUS CENTER-FAR SOUTH.  O 61.9%, D 62.7%.  76W/17B.  The border between this district and 50 creates an odd shape here for this downtown-cum-far southeastern district, it was done this way to get the second black district.  Safe D. 



South of Columbus and the Ohio River area, some outer Columbus metro but mostly rural and small-town.  Fairfield County is split on account of being too large, all the other districts here are whole county.
District 55: PICKAWAY-MADISON.  O 37.2%, D 42.6%.   Also includes a small portion of Fairfield, but no large towns there worth putting in the district name.  Both 55 and 56 are quite overpopulated.  Safe R.
District 56: LANCASTER-PICKERINGTON.  O 41.7%, D 43.8%.  The all-Fairfield district.  And the colors roll over for the last district in the Columbus MSA proper.  Safe R.
District 57: ROSS-FAYETTE.  O 43.3%, D 50.5%.  Chillicothe and Washington Court House, both micropolitan areas appended to the Columbus CSA.  Lean R.
District 58: HIGHLAND-JACKSON-PIKE.  O 40.0%, D 49.2%  Towns include Hillsboro, Waverly, Jackson.  Incredibly, this is the one and only district in Ohio to not have any metro or micropolitan areas in it (of course, micro areas are often quite rural in character).  The D average is close… but eh, Safe R anyway; the D average in this region is goosed on account of Ted Strickland being from the area.
District 59: SCIOTO-ADAMS. O 43.4%, D 55.7%.  The Portsmouth district.  Lean R, which is what I'm going to give most of these "bad Obama, good Dem average" districts.
District 60: LAWRENCE-GALLIA-MEIGS.  O 39.6%, D 56.9%.  Ironton is the largest town in this Ohio River district. but it's out of view to the south.  Lean R.
District 61: ATHENS-HOCKING-VINTON.  O 59.2%, D 66.8%.  Safe D.
District 62: WASHINGTON-MORGAN-NOBLE-MONROE.  O 43.3%, D 58.7%.  Marietta is the largest town.  Lean R.
District 63: MUSKINGUM-PERRY.  O 45.9%, D 52.8%.  The Zanesville district.  Lean R.



Moving north up the Ohio River/Appalachians, plus Stark (Canton) and Wayne (Wooster).  Stark has three whole districts and one it splits with Tuscarawas, everything else is whole county.
District 64: BELMONT-GUERNSEY.  O 48.1%,  D 62.9%.  Cambridge, St. Clairsville, Wheeling WV suburbs.  Erm… Lean D; local Dems should do better than Obama here.
District 65: JEFFERSON-CARROLL-HARRISON.  O 48.1%, D 62.9%.  The Steubenville district.  Yep, exact same partisan numbers as the last one.  Lean D.
District 66: HOLMES-COSHOCTON-NEWCOMERSTOWN.  O 40.2%, D 45.5%. Coshocton, Amish Country, the south and west of Tuscarawas.  Safe R.
District 67: COLUMBIANA.  O 45.1%, D 61.9%.  East Liverpool, Salem.  Tossup.
District 68: NEW PHILADELPHIA-CANAL FULTON-BREWSTER.  O 49.5%, D 55.9%.  The Tuscarawas-Stark district.  "Stark South and West" would be better than trying to list towns all of which are not too large.  The disconnected precinct of 68 next to Alliance is a DRA bug, I assume.  Tossup.
District 69: CANTON.  O 61.8%, D 61.3%.  81W/15B.  Plain Township, north of Canton, is split between this and 71.  It was the least bad option.  Brown, just like a football, fitting given the legacy of the Canton Bulldogs and its status as the birthplace of the NFL.  Safe D.
District 70: MASSILLON.  O 50.7%, D 52.5%.  Orange in honor of the Masillon Tigers, of course.  (No, actually, like the Canton district that was just a coincidence.  But one I like quite much.) Tossup.
District 71: ALLIANCE-LOUISVILLE.  O 45.7%, D 49.5%.  Northeast Stark.  Lean R.
District 72: WAYNE.  O 41.6%, D 44.1%.  The Wooster district. Safe R.



The northeast corner of the state: Mahoning Valley, Ashtabula, and eastern Cleveland burbs.  Mahoning, Trumbull, and Lake all neatly divide into two (though Mahoning is overpopulated and Trumbull underpopulated.)  Then there's a three-district chain between Ashtabula, Geauga, and Portage.
District 73: AUSTINTOWN-CANFIELD.  O 54.1%, D 69.8%.  Aka the outer Mahoning district.  Safe D.
District 74: YOUNGSTOWN-BOARDMAN.  O 71.7%, D 80.6%.  65W/26B. Safe D.
District 75: NILES-GIRARD.  O 59.4%, D 73.3%.  Eastern Trumbull.  Safe D.
District 76: WARREN.  O 60.8%, D 73.0%.  86W/12B.  Western Trumbull.  Safe D.
District 77: ASHTABULA.  O 53.8%, D 55.4%.  A little bit of Geauga as well, since Ashtabula is just a bit too small to be one district.  Lean D.
District 78: PAINESVILLE-MADISON.  O 48.3%, D 48.5%.  Lake County, east and south.  Lean R.
District 79: MENTOR-WILLOUGHBY. O 50.8%, D 52.2%.  The more urban bits of Lake.  Tossup.
District 80: GEAUGA-STREETSBORO.  O 43.8%, D 46.9%.  Not technically all of Geauga, but most of it and there aren't any notable placenames in that exurban/farms mix of a county.  Also a little bit of northwest Portage that doesn't fit in 81.  Safe R.
District 81: KENT-RAVENNA.  O 55.9%, D 66.0%.  The bulk of Portage.  Safe D.

This'll need a Part III.

[traininthedistance]

Last part.


Cuyahoga County.  Twelve districts, all underpopulated.  Eleven would fit better, but the rest of the state is one short, and trying to squeeze an eleventh district into Franklin (the other realistic option) would be even worse.  Cleveland is split out the wazoo, and Shaker Heights is split as well; doing this allows for five black-majority districts.

District 82: SOLON-MAPLE HEIGHTS.  O 79.7%, D 79.2%.  42W/52B.  The southeast corner of Cuyahoga.  Splits Shaker Heights with 84; the one black-majority district that doesn't need to dip into Cleveland.  Safe D.
District 83: EUCLID-CLEVELAND COLLINWOOD.  O 82.9%, D 83.1%.  36W/60B.  The northwest corner of Cuyahoga.  Black-majority, Safe D.
District 84: SHAKER HEIGHTS-MAYFIELD HEIGHTS.  O 61.7%, D 65.8%.  82W/11B.  The white East Side district; splits Shaker Heights with 82 but most is here.  Safe D.
District 85: CLEVELAND HEIGHTS-SOUTH EUCLID-EAST CLEVELAND.  O 86.6%, D 86.3%.  39W/54B.  Black-majority, includes a small portion of Cleveland.  Safe D.
District 86: CLEVELAND SOUTHEAST-GARFIELD HEIGHTS.  O 86.5%, D 86.7%.  32W/65B.  The east side of the Cuyahoga Valley.  Black-majority, Safe D.
District 87: CLEVELAND BROOKLYN/TREMONT-BROOK PARK.  O 57.8%, D 65.7%.  Kind of awkward how this district (the last one to split Cleveland and its burbs) wraps around Parma, but that's how the math worked out.  Includes the airport.  Safe D.
District 88: CLEVELAND CENTER.  O 91.6%, D 89.3%.  28W/61B.  Safe D.
District 89: CLEVELAND WEST SIDE.  O 72.6%, D 75.4%.  61W/16B/19H.  Safe D.
District 90: LAKEWOOD-ROCKY RIVER.  O 59.1%, D 60.4%.  Also includes Bay Village and Fairview Park; just those four towns.  Safe D.
District 91: NORTH OLMSTED-WESTLAKE.  O 52.7%, D 56.3%.  Berea and Olmsted Township fill out this district.  Tossup.
District 92: PARMA.  O 56.4%, D 64.4%.  Plus Parma Heights.  Lean D.
District 93: STRONGSVILLE-NORTH ROYALTON.  O 44.9%, D 51.9%.  Plus Broadview Heights and Brecksville, the southernmost tier of towns in Cuyahoga.  Lean R.

And the rest of the Cleveland metro, south and west of Cuyahoga.


Summit (Akron) has five districts.  Akron is split in the same way as Dayton (one full district, parts of two others).
District 94: HUDSON-TWINSBURG.  O 48.7%, D 50.6%.  North Summit.  Lean R.
District 95: CUYAHOGA FALLS-STOW-AKRON NORTH.  O 55.7%, D 59.8%.  Lean D.
District 96: AKRON CENTER.  O 82.8%, D 82.3%.  49W/45B.  Black-plurality by total population.  Safe D.
District 97: GREEN-BARBERTON.  O 50.9%, D 60.5%.  South Summit.  Tossup.
District 98: TALLMADGE-SPRINGFIELD-AKRON SOUTH.  O 56.6%, D 66.6%.  Lean D.

And finally, Lorain and Medina share four districts.  Two entirely in Lorain, one in Medina, one shared.
District 99: MEDINA-WADSWORTH.  O 43.6%, D 47.9%.  The all-Medina district.  Safe R.
District 100: BRUNSWICK-OBERLIN.  O 52.5%, D 60.0%.  The split district.  Lean D.
District 101: ELYRIA-NORTH RIDGEVILLE.  O 57.8%, D 64.1%.  Safe D.
District 102: LORAIN-AVON LAKE.  O 60.0%, D 64.4%.  76W/13H.  Safe D.

Assuming that my rankings are accurate (not always a correct assumption), we have:

32 Safe D
11 Lean D
11 Tossup
12 Lean R
36 Safe R

The DRA numbers are somewhat Dem-skewed, which I tried to mentally take into account, but perhaps not enough- this is a mostly reasonable spread as it stands, but if my rankings are too optimistic we could be seeing a Pub-favoring map.  Eight black-majority districts (five Cuyahoga, two Columbus, one Cincy) and several more black-plurality by VAP or just total.