Canada 2011 Official Thread

[bullmoose88]

But with the NDP and Libs presumably splitting the non-tory vote outside Quebec (perhaps in it too), isn't it virtually impossible for the tories not to have the most seats?

How can the NDP and Libs possibly make the case that (if the worst the Tories can do is form a minority gov't)...that they should be offered the chance to hold government...would the BQ really be a suitable ally either in coalition or for supply?

[bullmoose88]

Why are you having an election again...is there a serious chance that tories wouldn't be the largest party (out right majority or plurality) in the commons?

How would it work where they wouldn't be asked to form the government...and how stable/viable would that situation be?

[bullmoose88]

...[omitted because my text box is acting weird with this many lines...

I understand that the GG could, ask another party/coalition to form the government even if they don't have the most seats.  Its hard seeing the tories finishing 2nd or worse in overall seat numbers.

I just mean, either with a tory minority government for another period, or some sort of Liberal government with NDP/Bloc support on supply/confidence motions or even in coalition...how stable is that going to be?  As long as the bloc takes enough seats to make it virutally impossible for the tories or the libs (or libs/NDP) from having a majority...and there isn't a major shift in voting patterns (realignment/scandal) whats an election going to solve?  How is it going to usher in a government that can serve out its full term?

[bullmoose88]

low BQ numbers means it'll be easier for the Tories to get a majority. They're already in majority territory.

It wouldn't be the Liberals getting the boost in seats first (how quickly do the Tories begin to win seats on a swing away from BQ)? Or is that irrelevant as both parties would gain seats to some degree by a swing away from BQ...and with the Tories closer to the post...bam.

[bullmoose88]

I say this in response (that potentially could make me look very foolish) to looking at Vorlon's estimated seat totals a couple posts above showing the Grits and Dippers both with 52 seats.

Is it at all possible to see a situation where the NDP, akin to UK Labour, completely over takes the Liberals as the natural alternative to the Tories...rendering Libs sort of a rump in future parliaments?  Is that how people see this eventually playing out, or are things (as I'm guessing someone or some people will say) so fundamentally different that such a thing cannot, in all likelihood, happen.

[bullmoose88]

I say this in response (that potentially could make me look very foolish) to looking at Vorlon's estimated seat totals a couple posts above showing the Grits and Dippers both with 52 seats.

Is it at all possible to see a situation where the NDP, akin to UK Labour, completely over takes the Liberals as the natural alternative to the Tories...rendering Libs sort of a rump in future parliaments?  Is that how people see this eventually playing out, or are things (as I'm guessing someone or some people will say) so fundamentally different that such a thing cannot, in all likelihood, happen.

Look again. It's the Grits and the Bloc both with 52 seats.

That's also an extremely poor outcome for the Liberals that isn't being reflected in any other poll.

Ah....better catch than I was able to make. The question still stands...any chance the NDP supplants the libs as the anti-tory party?  Not necessarily now...but in the foreseeable future.

[bullmoose88]

Yeah, my mistake...but what about the substantive question...can the more social-democratic party push the more centrist liberal party into a permanent rump position and be the natural opposition to the Tories...ala the UK?  Why or why not?  Likely or unlikely?

[bullmoose88]

Yeah, my mistake...but what about the substantive question...can the more social-democratic party push the more centrist liberal party into a permanent rump position and be the natural opposition to the Tories...ala the UK?  Why or why not?  Likely or unlikely?

Fairly unlikely, although it would be nice. I think a Green-NDP-BQ merger is more likely in the distant future.

So like a when pigs fly type deal?

[bullmoose88]

Yeah, my mistake...but what about the substantive question...can the more social-democratic party push the more centrist liberal party into a permanent rump position and be the natural opposition to the Tories...ala the UK?  Why or why not?  Likely or unlikely?

Fairly unlikely, although it would be nice. I think a Green-NDP-BQ merger is more likely in the distant future.

So like a when pigs fly type deal?

I wouldn't go that far.  I mean, the NDP formed the government of Ontario from 1990 to 1995. I mean, who saw that coming? The federal party could do the same, or maybe even opposition, but things would fall back into order after a few cycles, depending on a number of external factors.

One musn't forget that the CCF/NDP has led the federal polls twice in its history. Once in 1987 and once in 1943 I believe.

I just mean, it seems like a NDP-BQ-Green merger is one of the signs of the apocalypse type deals.  So the liberals being the 3rd party rump must be virtually impossible...it would appear.

[bullmoose88]

Yeah, my mistake...but what about the substantive question...can the more social-democratic party push the more centrist liberal party into a permanent rump position and be the natural opposition to the Tories...ala the UK?  Why or why not?  Likely or unlikely?

Fairly unlikely, although it would be nice. I think a Green-NDP-BQ merger is more likely in the distant future.

So like a when pigs fly type deal?

I wouldn't go that far.  I mean, the NDP formed the government of Ontario from 1990 to 1995. I mean, who saw that coming? The federal party could do the same, or maybe even opposition, but things would fall back into order after a few cycles, depending on a number of external factors.

One musn't forget that the CCF/NDP has led the federal polls twice in its history. Once in 1987 and once in 1943 I believe.

I just mean, it seems like a NDP-BQ-Green merger is one of the signs of the apocalypse type deals.  So the liberals being the 3rd party rump must be virtually impossible...it would appear.

It's happened in some provinces (SK and Manitoba), but it's unlikely to happen nationwide. Just wait until Justin Trudeau is leader. Then the Liberals will get a boost in the polls and the NDP will be in the low teens for a while. Well, maybe not. The NDP will likely choose Thomas Mulcair as their next leader, and that would be very interesting.

A shame, from what little I've seen...I actually like Layton the most of the four.

[bullmoose88]

Bob Rae is a dirty traitor like Ujjal Dosanjh, and an incompetent at that. It would please me greatly to see him made leader.

Wouldn't the NDP surge be good for Harper? They do hold less seats than the Liberals, and compete for a similar bloc of voters as them which could lead to the possibility of several marginals going the Tories way because of vote splitting. It seems kind of similar to how the PC and Reform parties divided the right throughout the 90's.

Canada has a long and proud tradition of strategic voting, so vote-splitting is less of a boon to the Tories than it might be. Moreover, the rising NDP tide will certainly engulf a number of Conservative seats; Conservative-NDP marginals aren't that uncommon.

Aren't we close to the point where the NDP has reached a critical mass whereby its high poll numbers wouldn't mean a small tory plurality in unusual seats is going to happen, but that the NDP is likely to win those ridings?

*fixed for double negative....stupid Bullmoose.

[bullmoose88]

I am going to go out and make a prediction, that the Tories will massively outperform polls on Monday.

Why? The NDP is peaking several days too soon. The narrative at the end of this week will shift from Jack Layton as leader of the opposition to Jack Layton as a potential PM, and despite what some NDP supporters may think, that is a prospect that terrifies 60% of Canadians. When Newspapers start to run with it later this week, you are going to see two things:

...

People may be ready for an NDP opposition. They clearly are ready to dump the Liberals. But I doubt they really want an NDP government, and if polls in the next few days show them close to the Tories, its the worst thing that could happen to the NDP.

But will the NDP be the other major party...i.e. will the liberals be a rump from hence forth...some liberals surely will join the CPC...as opposed to the NDP?

[bullmoose88]

My Tory friend is in NDP-mass-panic mode and doesn't find the Liberals as evil as before.

Save the fact he wore a Habs jersey for votes, Layton seems like a good, competent leader...unlike the others.  It won't be soooo bad.  If at all.

[bullmoose88]

So, supposing the Tories come out of this election with another minority government (reduced or not)...which also supposes no NDP-Liberal coalition...

How long does this government last?  I mean...wouldn't the liberals be hesitant to give the NDP another opportunity so soon to cement themselves as the natural tory alternative?

[bullmoose88]

If Lib and NDP merge, it opens interesting naming possibilities ) Could be a Liberal Democratic Party ) Or, even better, a Liberal Labor Party ) And, after a hiatus, Canada would be back to the two-party FPTP norm )

Vive le Duverger!

How about the New Liberals?