Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Meeker]

The Liberals and Bloc are probably very concerned about the fact that their poll numbers are dropping... just as any party would be. It's not really clear from your question what you're getting at.

[Lincoln Republican]

The Liberals and Bloc are probably very concerned about the fact that they're poll numbers are dropping... just as any party would be. It's not really clear from your question what you're getting at.

With the NDP outpacing the Bloc in Quebec and pulling ahead of the Liberals nationally and running second to the Conservatives, I would think that would cause some panic in Bloc and Liberal ranks this late in the game.

This late in the election, what can they really do to reverse this development?  My view is there's really not much they can do.

[Hatman 🍁]

Are Liberals really considering Bob Rae to replace Ignatieff? They've already shot both their feet, what's left...

I hope so. It would continue them down the road to irrelevance.

[Meeker]

The Liberals and Bloc are probably very concerned about the fact that they're poll numbers are dropping... just as any party would be. It's not really clear from your question what you're getting at.

With the NDP outpacing the Bloc in Quebec and pulling ahead of the Liberals nationally and running second to the Conservatives, I would think that would cause some panic in Bloc and Liberal ranks this late in the game.

This late in the election, what can they really do to reverse this development?  My view is there's really not much they can do.

Of course there's panic. But your original question was whether there was any panic... which seemed like an obvious and silly question... which is why no one responded to it.

[Lincoln Republican]

The Liberals and Bloc are probably very concerned about the fact that they're poll numbers are dropping... just as any party would be. It's not really clear from your question what you're getting at.

With the NDP outpacing the Bloc in Quebec and pulling ahead of the Liberals nationally and running second to the Conservatives, I would think that would cause some panic in Bloc and Liberal ranks this late in the game.

This late in the election, what can they really do to reverse this development?  My view is there's really not much they can do.

Of course there's panic. But your original question was whether there was any panic... which seemed like an obvious and silly question... which is why no one responded to it.

Well, thank you so much for pointing this out.  Much appreciated.

[redcommander]

Wouldn't the NDP surge be good for Harper? They do hold less seats than the Liberals, and compete for a similar bloc of voters as them which could lead to the possibility of several marginals going the Tories way because of vote splitting. It seems kind of similar to how the PC and Reform parties divided the right throughout the 90's.

[Хahar 🤔]

Bob Rae is a dirty traitor like Ujjal Dosanjh, and an incompetent at that. It would please me greatly to see him made leader.

Wouldn't the NDP surge be good for Harper? They do hold less seats than the Liberals, and compete for a similar bloc of voters as them which could lead to the possibility of several marginals going the Tories way because of vote splitting. It seems kind of similar to how the PC and Reform parties divided the right throughout the 90's.

Canada has a long and proud tradition of strategic voting, so vote-splitting is less of a boon to the Tories than it might be. Moreover, the rising NDP tide will certainly engulf a number of Conservative seats; Conservative-NDP marginals aren't that uncommon.

[bullmoose88]

Bob Rae is a dirty traitor like Ujjal Dosanjh, and an incompetent at that. It would please me greatly to see him made leader.

Wouldn't the NDP surge be good for Harper? They do hold less seats than the Liberals, and compete for a similar bloc of voters as them which could lead to the possibility of several marginals going the Tories way because of vote splitting. It seems kind of similar to how the PC and Reform parties divided the right throughout the 90's.

Canada has a long and proud tradition of strategic voting, so vote-splitting is less of a boon to the Tories than it might be. Moreover, the rising NDP tide will certainly engulf a number of Conservative seats; Conservative-NDP marginals aren't that uncommon.

Aren't we close to the point where the NDP has reached a critical mass whereby its high poll numbers wouldn't mean a small tory plurality in unusual seats is going to happen, but that the NDP is likely to win those ridings?

*fixed for double negative....stupid Bullmoose.

[Lief 🗽]

Bob Rae is a dirty traitor like Ujjal Dosanjh, and an incompetent at that. It would please me greatly to see him made leader.

They both suck a lot. Incompetent leaders who oversaw crushing landslide defeats for their provincial NDP parties and bolted to the Liberals afterward. I don't want to jinx things, but just knowing that there's a distinct possibility that Rae will be the leader of a rump Liberal caucus supporting an NDP minority is kind of awesome.

[2952-0-0]

If the election results follow the current polls, we'll see some losses for Conservatives, more losses for the Liberals, bad losses for the Bloc, and NDP pushed to second place. Elizabeth May might also win. In such a scenario the Conservatives will hold a reduced plurality while the Liberals and NDP combined hold a clear majority.

It's a safe bet that Ignatieff and Duceppe will step down as party leaders. Harper will continue as Prime Minister and will introduce a budget which grants no concessions to the opposition parties, and continue to scaremonger about coalitions.

Here's a question: if that budget is voted down and the Governor General goes to Layton (as leader of the second party) to form a government, how will Harper react? Will he resort to childish antics? If (as seems possible) party infighting erupts, will Harper try to fight a two front war to cling to government AND party leader?

He's not someone who can reason with those who challenge him, so I'll have popcorn ready.

[Dan the Roman]

I am going to go out and make a prediction, that the Tories will massively outperform polls on Monday.

Why? The NDP is peaking several days too soon. The narrative at the end of this week will shift from Jack Layton as leader of the opposition to Jack Layton as a potential PM, and despite what some NDP supporters may think, that is a prospect that terrifies 60% of Canadians. When Newspapers start to run with it later this week, you are going to see two things:

1. Centrist Liberal voters voting strategically for the Tories
2. Soft-NDP supporters deserting as they learn more about the platform, and read the slew of stories about lunatic NDP paper candidates that are going to dominate media coverage for the rest of the week.

This is what happened to the Liberal Democrats to an extent, but here it will be far worse. NDP government has a disastrous record in the key swing areas(BC, Ontario), and a large portion of the likely NDP MPs are paper candidates, separatists, crazies, or all three.

People may be ready for an NDP opposition. They clearly are ready to dump the Liberals. But I doubt they really want an NDP government, and if polls in the next few days show them close to the Tories, its the worst thing that could happen to the NDP.

[bullmoose88]

I am going to go out and make a prediction, that the Tories will massively outperform polls on Monday.

Why? The NDP is peaking several days too soon. The narrative at the end of this week will shift from Jack Layton as leader of the opposition to Jack Layton as a potential PM, and despite what some NDP supporters may think, that is a prospect that terrifies 60% of Canadians. When Newspapers start to run with it later this week, you are going to see two things:

...

People may be ready for an NDP opposition. They clearly are ready to dump the Liberals. But I doubt they really want an NDP government, and if polls in the next few days show them close to the Tories, its the worst thing that could happen to the NDP.

But will the NDP be the other major party...i.e. will the liberals be a rump from hence forth...some liberals surely will join the CPC...as opposed to the NDP?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

"peak" means the top. The NDP has room to grow.

[You kip if you want to...]

The difference between the NDP and the LibDems is that this surge had been (relatively) steady, as opposed to the (literal) overnight surge and emergence of Cleggmania. As people have said, the NDP has room to grow, the LibDems peaked about the time of the last debate which was a week before the election.

[Verily]

I am going to go out and make a prediction, that the Tories will massively outperform polls on Monday.

Why? The NDP is peaking several days too soon. The narrative at the end of this week will shift from Jack Layton as leader of the opposition to Jack Layton as a potential PM, and despite what some NDP supporters may think, that is a prospect that terrifies 60% of Canadians. When Newspapers start to run with it later this week, you are going to see two things:

...

People may be ready for an NDP opposition. They clearly are ready to dump the Liberals. But I doubt they really want an NDP government, and if polls in the next few days show them close to the Tories, its the worst thing that could happen to the NDP.

But will the NDP be the other major party...i.e. will the liberals be a rump from hence forth...some liberals surely will join the CPC...as opposed to the NDP?

FWIW, EKOS polls on second preferences. They found, in the most recent poll I looked at, that 51% of Liberal voters had the NDP as a second preference while only 9% had the Conservatives as a second preference. Most of the rest were undecided. This was in the early stages of the NDP surge, when the two parties were about tied nationally. (I suspect most of the "blue Liberals" have already switched to supporting the Conservatives, in 2006 or 2008 or since 2008.)

Anyway, today's Nanos...

CON: 36.6 (-1.2)
NDP: 30.4 (+2.6)
LIB: 21.9 (-1.0)
BQ: 6.0 (+0.2)
GRN: 4.1 (-0.6)

[minionofmidas]

If the election results follow the current polls, we'll see some losses for Conservatives, more losses for the Liberals, bad losses for the Bloc, and NDP pushed to second place. Elizabeth May might also win. In such a scenario the Conservatives will hold a reduced plurality while the Liberals and NDP combined hold a clear majority.

It's a safe bet that Ignatieff and Duceppe will step down as party leaders. Harper will continue as Prime Minister and will introduce a budget which grants no concessions to the opposition parties, and continue to scaremonger about coalitions.

Here's a question: if that budget is voted down and the Governor General goes to Layton (as leader of the second party) to form a government, how will Harper react? Will he resort to childish antics?

I think he made that very very clear in 2008. He'll prorogue parliament, indefinitely if need be.

[Hatman 🍁]

I am going to go out and make a prediction, that the Tories will massively outperform polls on Monday.

Why? The NDP is peaking several days too soon. The narrative at the end of this week will shift from Jack Layton as leader of the opposition to Jack Layton as a potential PM, and despite what some NDP supporters may think, that is a prospect that terrifies 60% of Canadians. When Newspapers start to run with it later this week, you are going to see two things:

60%? um, no. 54% of Canadians either have the NDP as their #1 preference or #2 preference. That means at the most 46% are scared of Layton as being PM, the lowest of all the parties.

[Holmes]

As for the news channels (CTV, CBC) and local media, I haven't seen them talk about Layton being PM much. Local media doesn't follow the election that much, but our local race will be a blowout anyway, so they mostly talk about national stuff a bit. But as for CTV and CBC, I've literally seen them (mostly CTV) air 10+ minute segments about Layton and the NDP, then show short clips of the other parties.

I think he made that very very clear in 2008. He'll prorogue parliament, indefinitely if need be.

And a lot of Canadians will see him as a "do no wrong" Prime Minister.

[Dan the Roman]

I am going to go out and make a prediction, that the Tories will massively outperform polls on Monday.

Why? The NDP is peaking several days too soon. The narrative at the end of this week will shift from Jack Layton as leader of the opposition to Jack Layton as a potential PM, and despite what some NDP supporters may think, that is a prospect that terrifies 60% of Canadians. When Newspapers start to run with it later this week, you are going to see two things:

60%? um, no. 54% of Canadians either have the NDP as their #1 preference or #2 preference. That means at the most 46% are scared of Layton as being PM, the lowest of all the parties.

Thats because they are thinking of them as a nice party they want to see more of. Their preferences for whether or not they want them as a government may well be different. There are plenty of people who may want to take a chance on Layton being LO, but will get terrified of the extent of NDP inexperience.

---quoting fixed by boardbashi---

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I am going to go out and make a prediction, that the Tories will massively outperform polls on Monday.

That's certainly a possibility, yes. If the Liberals start to look irrelevant and if PM Layton seems like a serious possibility, then what happened to Kinnock might happen to Layton; it isn't as though Red Scares are alien to Canadian political history. Sometimes they've even worked.

However...

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That's a very high number, especially given the tendency of the federal NDP to be dominated by moderates and the fact that most Canadian provinces have elected social democratic governments (including the Lévesque-era PQ in that, btw) at some point. I doubt that the percentage - if you can put a percentage on such things - is higher than 50%. Layton himself is simply not scary; he might once have had an image as a scary fire-breathing lefty (and was the victim of a very effective Red Scare in the 1991 Mayoral election in Toronto) but he's mellowed over the years into an utterly respectable Douglas/Lewis/Broadbent social democrat. Some of which might be the result of a conscious attempt at image-shifting; Of the three national party leaders, which one almost always wears a tie?

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Centre-right you mean, but, yes. That's certainly possible.

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The NDP platform isn't greatly different to the Liberal one and contains little that is especially scary to anyone likely to vote NDP. No, that sort of thing is more likely to motivate right-wing voters than frighten possible NDP ones.

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Is it? I don't remember anyone being frightened of the LibDems. They basically just proposed the status quo in new clothes (i.e. what they've always done). The issue with the LibDems was that their polling bump was at least two thirds artificial and the result of incompetence on the part of Britain's serially incompetent polling industry (pet hate, sorry), and the fact that they are (and have always been) an organisational shambles. That, and the relative stability of the British electorate, certainly when compared to Canada.

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There's also a record of competent (sometimes too competent for their own good, actually) governments in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Nova Scotia (seemingly), and the fact that various policies advocated by Douglas and Lewis were adopted by Pearson and Trudeau, and then became utterly uncontroversial and mainstream.

But if the issue of NDP government's past is an issue, then it's a bigger problem in Ontario than BC. In BC people are used to laughably incompetent government (at all levels) and vented enough in 2000 and 2002; basically the NDP there are part of the furniture and are manifestly non-scary to the sort of people who might be tempted to actually vote NDP. That they're regarded as Communists by most right-wingers there is irrelevant. The Rae government is a different matter, yeah, but it was a while ago.

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How many likely NDP MPs are any of those three things? If they do as well as the polls say they might, perhaps a few, yeah. Plenty of insane Tory MPs, though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Worth a read: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/981471--hebert-a-liberal-campaign-of-self-destruction?bn=1

[Hatman 🍁]

All good points raised by Al.  The NDP has an excellent track record in Saskatchewan, and has had since the first time they were elected in 1944.

There is already evidence of a red (orange) scare, right now, with markets afraid of a strong NDP. But, that is to be expected.

[Holmes]

Wait, I know it's not a federal question, but how can BC have a premier that's not even an MPP? That's possible?

[Hash]

Wait, I know it's not a federal question, but how can BC have a premier that's not even an MPP? That's possible?

She's running in a byelection on May 11 in Campbell's seat.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Wait, I know it's not a federal question, but how can BC have a premier that's not even an MPP? That's possible?

There is no law requiring anyone from the government to be an MP/MLA. Only tradition. And tradition has, time and time again, allowed for Premiers and PM's to be such, so long as they run for an open seat at a reasonably soon opportunity.