Canada 2011 Official Thread

[cinyc]

And the remarkable thing is, it seems to be working, at least for now. At least, my, admittedly far from thorough, but more than perfunctory search hasn't uncovered any violators. The most that I've seen is people saying "I will be discussing this on Twitter".  Can't believe it - 30 million law-abiding citizens and no freedom fighters among them Smiley

What can I say: Canadians.

Yeah, in 2006 it took an American blogger, Ed Morrissey from Captain's Quarters, to publicly and explicitly do the job most Canadians were unwilling to do.  He's not sitting in any Canadian prison.

This time, there could be a tweet-in.

[Linus Van Pelt]

And the remarkable thing is, it seems to be working, at least for now. At least, my, admittedly far from thorough, but more than perfunctory search hasn't uncovered any violators. The most that I've seen is people saying "I will be discussing this on Twitter".  Can't believe it - 30 million law-abiding citizens and no freedom fighters among them Smiley

What can I say: Canadians.

Yeah, in 2006 it took an American blogger, Ed Morrissey from Captain's Quarters, to publicly and explicitly do the job most Canadians were unwilling to do.  He's not sitting in any Canadian prison.

This time, there could be a tweet-in.

Look, no-one's saying anyone's going to prison, but what public policy reason is there to possibly violate the law? Is it a good thing for the election in one time zone to be slightly skewed by the election in another?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

2008: Some newfoundland radio station forgot to cut their online feed for about 35-40 mins after the polls closed. By that time some radical-right-wingers on a western separatist forum decided to call up some people down easy and posted very patchy results until things went live on TV here.

[cinyc]

Look, no-one's saying anyone's going to prison, but what public policy reason is there to possibly violate the law? Is it a good thing for the election in one time zone to be slightly skewed by the election in another?

Where I come from, there has to be a really, really, really compelling public policy reason to restrain free speech.  I don't need a public policy reason to speak. 

There is no public policy reason to stop foreigners from discussing results from an election they can't vote in on a forum not directed toward Canadians.  Anyone who comes here does so by choice.

[Lief 🗽]

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Jesus, that's frighteningly creepy.

[Meeker]

I lol'd

[homelycooking]

Jesus, that's frighteningly creepy.

Here, let me help you out with that.

[Meeker]

Layton has a big rally in Gatineau tomorrow.

[Hatman 🍁]

Layton has a big rally in Gatineau tomorrow.

I am considering going, but it is a bit of a bike ride, and it'll mostly be in French :/

[Hatman 🍁]

Present prediction

[Meeker]

What is that numerically?

[Hatman 🍁]

Tories: 150 (+7)
Libs: 74 (-3)
BQ: 41 (-8)
NDP: 41 (+5)
Ind: 1 (-1)

Liberal losses in the ROC are negated by some random Quebec pickups caused by vote splitting. BQ hit hard. NDP does really well in Quebec, but is unable to translate that into very many seats.

[Хahar 🤔]

Two seats for the NDP in Saskatchewan is a bit optimistic, no?

[Smid]

I'm surprised you haven't included Ahuntsic, Papineau or Westmount-Ville-Marie in the NDP gains. Possibly also the Laval seats? Is your Nunavut call an actual expectation or simply a no-polls-so-predicting-no-changes prediction? Also surprised by your position on Saulte Ste Marie - I'd think strategic voting would benefit the NDP there, although I can understand you not wanting to jinx the result. I also thought Kenora might be a pickup for you. I think Tory gains in Vancouver South and Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca (I'm typing from memory on my phone so names could very easily be mis-spelt, I hope you understand which seats I mean) would probably lead to an improved NDP vote in the long-run because the strategic voting is also quite clear along the boundaries of Victoria, Saanich-Gulf Islands and E-JdF - can clearly see the change from Liberal to NDP along the boundaries of Victoria - I am sure there is no drastic change in demographics there.

[Verily]

Today's Nanos has the NDP and Conservatives up a bit, Liberals down a bit nationally. They also have the NDP in first in Quebec for the first time in their polling, 30.2% to 27.4% Bloc, 22.0% Lib and 14.1% Con.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm surprised you haven't included Ahuntsic, Papineau or Westmount-Ville-Marie in the NDP gains. Possibly also the Laval seats? Is your Nunavut call an actual expectation or simply a no-polls-so-predicting-no-changes prediction? Also surprised by your position on Saulte Ste Marie - I'd think strategic voting would benefit the NDP there, although I can understand you not wanting to jinx the result. I also thought Kenora might be a pickup for you. I think Tory gains in Vancouver South and Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca (I'm typing from memory on my phone so names could very easily be mis-spelt, I hope you understand which seats I mean) would probably lead to an improved NDP vote in the long-run because the strategic voting is also quite clear along the boundaries of Victoria, Saanich-Gulf Islands and E-JdF - can clearly see the change from Liberal to NDP along the boundaries of Victoria - I am sure there is no drastic change in demographics there.

Papineau and Ahuntsic will be 3 way races, but will have less people voting NDP, due to the fact that they were so close last time. If the NDP makes a foothold in the province though, expect the NDP to pick up those seats in the future (Papineau is very left wing, apparently).  Westmount may be a pick up for the NDP, but I'm holding out for now. As for Laval, it is much too suburban to vote NDP.

As for the Sault and Welland, I see that many polls show the NDP down a bit in Ontario, so they may lose a couple of seats.

Two seats for the NDP in Saskatchewan is a bit optimistic, no?

Perhaps, but we'll see. The NDP is polling well in the prairies.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

[Holmes]

Fricking southern Ontario. Should be more like northern Ontario. Then we wouldn't be having this Tory problem.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I've been wondering about an NDP pickup in Pontiac also. The geography is a bit misleading; the population is substantially in the greater Ottawa region, and the splits there have to be just right for Cannon's huge margins in the rural Anglo areas across the river from Renfrew county to carry him over, which he did with only 33% last time.

What are people's opinions of the chances of IND>CON in Simcoe-Grey? (For the internationals: the Conservatives have a nomination fracas.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good Lord. The BQ have dragged out Parizeau. They are desperate then.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've been wondering about an NDP pickup in Pontiac also. The geography is a bit misleading; the population is substantially in the greater Ottawa region, and the splits there have to be just right for Cannon's huge margins in the rural Anglo areas across the river from Renfrew county to carry him over, which he did with only 33% last time.

What are people's opinions of the chances of IND>CON in Simcoe-Grey? (For the internationals: the Conservatives have a nomination fracas.)

I have a hard enough time convincing myself that Hull-Aylmer will go NDP, letalone the Pontiac. I told my work friend he should vote NDP, as he'll be voting in the Pontiac (he has voted NDP in the past, but was considering voting Bloc)

As for Simcoe-Grey, I can't really see Helena winning it...

[Hatman 🍁]

Two new riding polls from Quebec.

In Brome-Missisquoi, the former NDP candidate (2008) is leading for the Bloc 32-26% over the NDP and the Liberals who are tied for second. The NDP has no business doing that well in what was a close race between the Liberals and Bloc in 2008...  I really hope the BQ loses it to the NDP, that'll show her for switching parties! The other poll was from Chambly-Borduas, a riding that the NDP won a long time ago (first ever). The BQ leads there 37-24.

[Meeker]

So if this election results in another minority government, how long do you think it'd be until the next election? And at what point does the Conservative caucus start getting antsy and look for a new leader who can deliver a majority?

[Hatman 🍁]

Depends on the seat count of the opposition parties.

With the poll %s from B-M, and the stats showing that every night the poll was being conducted, the NDP#'s increased, I will call it for the NDP (certainly not the Libs), while I will call nearby Drummond for the NDP as well.