Canada 2011 Official Thread

[bgwah]

I would love to see a U.S. vote with Canada's parties. In Washington, our state legislative districts are about the size of Canadian electoral districts. I think the 37th district in SE Seattle might be similar to East Vancouver. Lots of immigrants, used to be European immigrants like Italians, but now a lot of Asian and African immigrants, and its the least white district in Seattle. Been working class Democrat since the 1930s.

[Holmes]

I'm sure you're all aware, but Timmins-James Bay should be rather boring. Turnout may be up, there were some lines in the early voting areas but not that much. There are a few pockets of houses in my neighbourhood that have Charlie Angus signs, then maybe one Liberal, then more NDP. It's kinda funny.

[useful idiot]

This is very interesting: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/features/votecompass/map/

For as much BS that Canada Votes thing was, I think these maps are quite accurate. Interesting to see how Libertarian parts of Quebec are.

I find the results for "Canada should seek closer economic relations with the USA" to be extremely interesting, even bizarre from my uninformed standpoint. What am I missing?

[Linus Van Pelt]

This is very interesting: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/features/votecompass/map/

For as much BS that Canada Votes thing was, I think these maps are quite accurate. Interesting to see how Libertarian parts of Quebec are.

I find the results for "Canada should seek closer economic relations with the USA" to be extremely interesting, even bizarre from my uninformed standpoint. What am I missing?

There's always been a kind of odd pro-Americanism among the eastern Quebec conservative/ADQ vote that I don't pretend to completely understand, but it has something to do with this group being hostile to Quebec independence yet also being unattached to Canadian national identity. Quebec was always one of the most pro-NAFTA provinces during the 80's free-trade debates.

B.C. lumber areas, meanwhile, are economically anti-American, due to the trade dispute with the US in this area.

[Linus Van Pelt]

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Uh, that'll be a no. Who'd have expected that 75-year-old Azoreans don't fill out surveys on cbc.ca?

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm sure you're all aware, but Timmins-James Bay should be rather boring. Turnout may be up, there were some lines in the early voting areas but not that much. There are a few pockets of houses in my neighbourhood that have Charlie Angus signs, then maybe one Liberal, then more NDP. It's kinda funny.

Reminds me of my neighbourhood. Mostly Paul Dewar signs.

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Uh, that'll be a no. Who'd have expected that 75-year-old Azoreans don't filled out surveys on cbc.ca?

Well, I don't think they weighted this by demographic, but for the most part I haven't disagreed with these lists. I mean guess what riding was most pro-tar sands? Fort Mac. The riding where they're in.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

This is very interesting: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/features/votecompass/map/

For as much BS that Canada Votes thing was, I think these maps are quite accurate. Interesting to see how Libertarian parts of Quebec are.

I find the results for "Canada should seek closer economic relations with the USA" to be extremely interesting, even bizarre from my uninformed standpoint. What am I missing?

Fear.

[cinyc]

Canadian law considers Internet forums to be publications, and hence the publisher (Dave) would get in trouble if anyone does. Keep that in mind.

Twitter will have results.

Dave is an American living in the U.S.  The U.S. isn't going to extradite Dave to Canada for prosecution under a law that doesn't even have a remotely similar analogue in the U.S.  Discussing early U.S. results on election night is legal in the U.S., as is discussing early election results from a foreign country.  Nor would Canada even try to arrest an American for discussing their early election results while physically present in the U.S. on a U.S. forum - if anything, they'd be flattered that we care.  Heck, they don't even prosecute their own media organizations that in the past have mistakenly broadcast early results nationwide, let alone bloggers.  

That Canadian election results reporting law is anachronistic and unenforceable in the digital age.  It worked when CBC, CTV, Global and radio stations were the only way to get information.  Not so much now.

And even if there were a law, the First Amendment protects Americans having a political discussion about early Canadian election results in the US, anyway.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The U.S. isn't going to extradite Dave to Canada for prosecution under a law that doesn't even have a remotely similar analogue in the U.S.  

Nor would Canada even try to arrest an American for discussing their early election results while physically present in the U.S. on a U.S. forum - if anything, they'd be flattered that we care.  Heck, they don't even prosecute their own media organizations that in the past have mistakenly broadcast early results nationwide, let alone bloggers.  

That Canadian election results reporting law is anachronistic

And even if there were a law, the First Amendment protects Americans having a political discussion about early Canadian election results in the US, anyway.

These are not for you to decide.

[cinyc]

These are not for you to decide.

We discussed Canadian early results on this website in 2004, 2006 and 2008.  The world did not come to an end.  And nobody ended up in a Canadian prison.

The only way Elections Canada can get people to stop discussing results from provinces that close early is to lock up the vote-counters in those ridings without telephones or Internet access until all the polls close.  Even then, the news would get out somehow.

[Хahar 🤔]

It's also the place where prostitutes were turned into sausages, don't forget. Adding a degree of gothic to the more run-of-the-mill urban blight and inner city depression.

The area has been held by the CCF/NDP since 1930 with just two breaks.

I remember seeing a prostitute there. Come to think of it, it probably wasn't the best idea to wander around there at night without any adults present.

[Smid]

I was worried, I misread "seeing" as "seeking"...

[Hatman 🍁]

ha! I've walked through the area at night, before, but we stayed clear of Hastings and Main (came one block from though). Pretty crazy place.

[Verily]

Nanos has a new poll today that shows the NDP support leveling off, dropping marginally. They inched up further in Quebec (and Ontario), though.

[Verily]

Which actually brings me to what I think the NDP leadership should be considering... What if they really do win 15+ seats in Quebec?

For the NDP, that would be a sea-change in their caucus, and one that might not be easy for the party membership to deal with. After all, the party is traditionally small, and most MPs for the NDP get a fair amount of responsibility and power after a short time in office. I can see tensions arising between a new Quebec branch of the NDP (most of whom did not seriously expect to win office before this past week) and the rest of the party over internal matters as current MPs are reluctant to surrender power within the party to give the Quebec caucus a say in matters. Additionally, the NDP is mostly a monolingual party (with a couple of exceptions, but fewer than in the other parties)--the transition to having a large Francophone caucus, some of whom may not speak English well, will be another point of tension.

This isn't such a big deal in the other parties because they have larger caucuses outside of Quebec, but the NDP could be looking at having a third or even half of its MPs from Quebec, which creates the potential for real tensions.

Something to think about, anyway. The NDP leadership ought to be preparing not only for a larger caucus but for how to deal with tensions that will inevitably arise between the NDP old guard and Quebec MPs.

[minionofmidas]

I was worried, I misread "seeing" as "seeking"...

Well, "seeing" has some interesting meanings too, in this context.

These are not for you to decide.

We discussed Canadian early results on this website in 2004, 2006 and 2008.  The world did not come to an end.  And nobody ended up in a Canadian prison.

Have a look at the 2008 figures. The only thing we had was seat totals for the Maritimes. People wondered aloud if the ABC strategy had backfired, cause apparently no one was online to tell them there were reasonable Tory targets in New Brunswick.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[cinyc]

I was worried, I misread "seeing" as "seeking"...

Well, "seeing" has some interesting meanings too, in this context.

These are not for you to decide.

We discussed Canadian early results on this website in 2004, 2006 and 2008.  The world did not come to an end.  And nobody ended up in a Canadian prison.

Have a look at the 2008 figures. The only thing we had was seat totals for the Maritimes. People wondered aloud if the ABC strategy had backfired, cause apparently no one was online to tell them there were reasonable Tory targets in New Brunswick.

Traditionally, the Maritimes and that one Quebec riding are the only thing that's released before most if not all of the polls close.  Recently, most of Ontario's polls have closed an hour or so before the polls closed out west, so the votes are just getting counted or starting to trickle in around 10PM Eastern, when B.C. closes.  This year, polls in the Eastern time zone will close at 9:30 and those in the Pacific time zone will close at 10:00.  We're only going to get some early Newfoundland (close at 7PM Eastern) and Atlantic (7:30PM Eastern) results before the polls close in most of the rest of the country.

[minionofmidas]

I think you missed the point entirely.

[cinyc]

I think you missed the point entirely.

That the quality of the aggregate info available wasn't good enough to split Newfoundland from the other Maritime results?  Or our analysis sucked?

Hopefully, we'll get better early riding- or provincial-level data this cycle, thanks to Twitter and other tools that weren't available in 2008. 

Reading the tea leaves from the Maritimes is useful, but always an inexact science.

[minionofmidas]

I think you missed the point entirely.

That the quality of the aggregate info available wasn't good enough to split Newfoundland from the other Maritime results?  Or our analysis sucked?

That the results we (well, some posters who were posting on the forum at the time, whose identity I would have to look up. Though I do seem to recall Meeker was among them, might be wrong though) were very, very incomplete ones, just a headline seats leading tally. Nothing to satisfy an election junkie in any way. The dam on real results coverage broadly held.
Now, that doesn't mean the same thing will be true in 2011 - Twitter wasn't around then - but don't get your hopes up.

[cinyc]

That the results we (well, some posters who were posting on the forum at the time, whose identity I would have to look up. Though I do seem to recall Meeker was among them, might be wrong though) were very, very incomplete ones, just a headline seats leading tally. Nothing to satisfy an election junkie in any way. The dam on real results coverage broadly held.
Now, that doesn't mean the same thing will be true in 2011 - Twitter wasn't around then - but don't get your hopes up.

That's somewhat a function of how the Canadian TV networks have tended to report results - by aggregate seat count, not focusing on riding-level results.  I suspect many of the early reports in the past were based on election night TV or radio coverage from Atlantic Canada or the CBC's international radio affiliate, which has no restrictions on coverage.

Even the change in the Atlantic Canada seat count tells us something, though.

[minionofmidas]

I was worried, I misread "seeing" as "seeking"...

Well, "seeing" has some interesting meanings too, in this context.

These are not for you to decide.

We discussed Canadian early results on this website in 2004, 2006 and 2008.  The world did not come to an end.  And nobody ended up in a Canadian prison.

Have a look at the 2008 figures. The only thing we had was seat totals for the Maritimes. People wondered aloud if the ABC strategy had backfired, cause apparently no one was online to tell them there were reasonable Tory targets in New Brunswick.

I notice a wtfworthy error of mine. No idea why I wrote "figures". I meant to write "thread".

Yeah. Go figure that one out.

[Meeker]

I also seem to recall Dave yelling at us in 2008 not to post results before Canadian law allowed, but I may be imagining that.

[minionofmidas]

Haven't found Dave yet but found this gem from ag...


Re: Canada 2008: Official Thread
« Reply #800 on: October 14, 2008, 06:20:10 pm »    

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Your understanding is correct. They can't monitor everything perfectly, but they do prosecute anyone who they catch spreading results into provinces where voting is still open.[/quote]

And the remarkable thing is, it seems to be working, at least for now. At least, my, admittedly far from thorough, but more than perfunctory search hasn't uncovered any violators. The most that I've seen is people saying "I will be discussing this on Twitter".  Can't believe it - 30 million law-abiding citizens and no freedom fighters among them Smiley

What can I say: Canadians.