Canada 2011 Official Thread

[2952-0-0]

Voted today in an advanced poll, and was surprised to see an actual lineup.

Then I took a walk around town, in this riding where the CPC candidate defeated the Liberal by just 17 votes in the 2008 election.

I can say there are definitely more Liberal signs, followed by NDP signs. The CPC was barely more visible than the Green Party. If signs are any indication, the Conservative Party is in for a nasty surprise.

[tpfkaw]

If signs were any indication, then Barney Frank would've lost reelection in an epic landslide.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Signs are a much bigger part of local campaigns in Canada than in the US - one of the first things that a campaign will always ask a voter who indicates support for them either over the phone or at a door-to-door canvas is to take a free lawn sign. It surprised me a lot when I first came down here how few houses had signs even during major elections.

I suppose the basic reason is that the small size of the ridings combined with the campaign spending laws mean that there's no TV advertising for individual candidates, so signs are the only way to get name recognition for your local candidate.

Not that this changes the fact that prediction of elections by sign counting is on the dubious side.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not that this changes the fact that prediction of elections by sign counting is on the dubious side.

Yeah. Though if you know what sort of patterns to look for, it can still be useful; last year I worked out that the Labour vote in North Wales was holding up a lot better than universally assumed from signs and window posters, so the happily low swings in my part of the world didn't cause a surprise.

In Britain it used to be the case that party labels were never printed on ballots (that changed in the 1960s) which meant that candidate signs and posters had an important practical purpose (it's also why there aren't nearly as many as there used to be). Was that the case in Canada as well?

[Hatman 🍁]

Not that this changes the fact that prediction of elections by sign counting is on the dubious side.

Yeah. Though if you know what sort of patterns to look for, it can still be useful; last year I worked out that the Labour vote in North Wales was holding up a lot better than universally assumed from signs and window posters, so the happily low swings in my part of the world didn't cause a surprise.

In Britain it used to be the case that party labels were never printed on ballots (that changed in the 1960s) which meant that candidate signs and posters had an important practical purpose (it's also why there aren't nearly as many as there used to be). Was that the case in Canada as well?

Yes, I believe so. Parties on the ballot is a recent phenomena.

It usually takes them 3 years to re-adjust the boundaries from the date of the start of the Census.

2004, 1994, 1984, 1974, 1964 IIRC are the most recent dates.

Redistribution was in 2003, actually.

[Hatman 🍁]

CROP poll Quebec regions

Montreal: NDP 40%, BQ 28%, Lib 17%, Cons 12%
Quebec City: BQ: 31%, Cons 31%, NDP 28%, Lib 11%
Rest of the province: BQ 35%, NDP: 34%, Cons 19%, Lib 10%

Francos: BQ: 38%, NDP 34%, Cons 15%, Lib 11%
Anglos: NDP 45%, Cons 26%, Lib 20%, BQ 4%

[MaxQue]

Anglos: NDP 45%, Cons 26%, Lib 20%, BQ 4%

Sample is probably very small, but, if that true, Liberals would lose some safe seats in the west half of Montreal, the ridings "whose would elect a red post box".

Which riding Notre-Dame-de-Grâce is in? It is a poor very English area, I suppose it would fail.
Would also mean than Jeanne-Le-Ber is a NDP-BQ race, then, I think.

Teddy, I know than there was very long lines for early voting in Quebec City and the parking of the early voting in Val-d'Or was full, today.

[cinyc]

Will Canada's weird laws on election coverage affect us at all?

Us?  No.  This isn't a Canadian website and those of us who aren't in Canada cannot be bound by the weird, anachronistic Canadian laws on election night coverage.  We can repeat whatever we hear from tweets and elsewhere.  Early results from Atlantic Canada and that one Quebec riding whose polls close an hour early always manage to get posted on the Internet somewhere.  It's just a question of finding it.

[Smid]

Max, I think there is a Notre-Dame Riding (if you look at the Montreal map, I think it's the Southern one on the island, with a northern boundary that looks a bit like a flattened W).

[MaxQue]

Will Canada's weird laws on election coverage affect us at all?

Us?  No.  This isn't a Canadian website and those of us who aren't in Canada cannot be bound by the weird, anachronistic Canadian laws on election night coverage.  We can repeat whatever we hear from tweets and elsewhere.  Early results from Atlantic Canada and that one Quebec riding whose polls close an hour early always manage to get posted on the Internet somewhere.  It's just a question of finding it.

Well, honestly, I think it will be the last election with that law. I don't see that law staying in the books for long. Harper promised to repeal it, too.

Thanks, Smid, I'll check.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Canadian law considers Internet forums to be publications, and hence the publisher (Dave) would get in trouble if anyone does. Keep that in mind.

Twitter will have results.

[Joe Republic]

It's a shame that that law is no longer enforceable.

One of the reasons cited for the depressed GOP turnout on the west coast in US '08 was media reports of Obama's impending victory.  And of course we all remember what happened in the Florida panhandle in 2000.

[MaxQue]

Well, looking a map shows me than Notre-Dame-de-Grâce has been slipt in the halves.

One is Westmount--Ville-Marie and one with Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine.

In English Canada, those would called gerrymanderers! Putting poor areas in ridings where there are outvoted by the wealthy communities.

They did the same thing to Côte-des-Neiges (multicultural poor riding). 2/3 in Outremont (but with trendy Mile End, they are able to outvote wealthy Outremont Borough, and 1/3 in Mount Royal (which is a very wealthy English city).

Joe: The solution would be universal voting hours. But West voters wouldn't like and Eastern media, neither.

[minionofmidas]

Apparently the Tories are scared of the NDP now: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PYTd52pT28&feature=youtu.be

"He'll do it again"? Certainly they mean "He's probably doing it again right now"?

[minionofmidas]

Anglos: NDP 45%, Cons 26%, Lib 20%, BQ 4%

Sample is probably very small, but, if that true, Liberals would lose some safe seats in the west half of Montreal, the ridings "whose would elect a red post box".

Yeah, looks like the post boxes might conceivably be repainted orange.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Us?  No.  This isn't a Canadian website and those of us who aren't in Canada cannot be bound by the weird, anachronistic Canadian laws on election night coverage.  We can repeat whatever we hear from tweets and elsewhere.  Early results from Atlantic Canada and that one Quebec riding whose polls close an hour early always manage to get posted on the Internet somewhere.  It's just a question of finding it.

I didn't think so, but I always like to make sure. So, yay. Excellent.

[Linus Van Pelt]

It's a shame that that law is no longer enforceable.

One of the reasons cited for the depressed GOP turnout on the west coast in US '08 was media reports of Obama's impending victory.  And of course we all remember what happened in the Florida panhandle in 2000.

Yeah, I support the law, for this reason.

NDG is getting pretty middle class nowadays, by the way, though I agree that it is oddly split between Westmount-Ville Marie and NDG-Lachine.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, looking a map shows me than Notre-Dame-de-Grâce has been slipt in the halves.

One is Westmount--Ville-Marie and one with Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine.

In English Canada, those would called gerrymanderers! Putting poor areas in ridings where there are outvoted by the wealthy communities.

They did the same thing to Côte-des-Neiges (multicultural poor riding). 2/3 in Outremont (but with trendy Mile End, they are able to outvote wealthy Outremont Borough, and 1/3 in Mount Royal (which is a very wealthy English city).

Have a look at the boundaries of the Jeanne-Le Ber riding as well. Of course that follows borough/ex-municipal boundaries, making it slightly different.

[MaxQue]

No Nanos polling on Good Friday, so no new numbers today.
Polling resume today, new numbers on Easter.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ive been to NDG, and I can tell you it's the kind of trendy area that would vote NDP. It reminds me of the Glebe here in Ottawa, which is an NDP bastion.

[Hash]

Not sure I'd call NDG a poor area. Wealthy it is not, but poor it is not either. It's a middle-income trendy area (in general) with young professionals. It is the PVQ's best provincial riding, and its councillor is Peter McQueen, a Greenie.

[Insula Dei]

If the NDP does better, does that also mean the bar for the conservatives to win a majority winds up being lower (say 37-38%) ?

[Verily]

If the NDP does better, does that also mean the bar for the conservatives to win a majority winds up being lower (say 37-38%) ?

No. The only real difference in the polling at the moment from 2008 is in Quebec (where it is radically different). There aren't more than a handful of seats in Quebec where NDP "spoilers" could make any difference, but the Conservatives are polling down in Quebec on 2008, so gains there seem unlikely or limited.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There have been some indications that there might be changes elsewhere, but regional subsamples are highly unreliable for reasons outlined upthread. It would be nice if there were a few - just a few would do - proper polls of each province. They're done for provincial elections after all, so...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why doesn't Elections Canada simply not release any results until all the polls have closed?  The idea of we'll release results, but you'd better not blab about them was always silly.