Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

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Why is that not an ad for the YES-AV campaign in Britain? 

[tpfkaw]

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Why is that not an ad for the YES-AV campaign in Britain? 

Because the Brits are rather bigger fans of their two parties than their third party right now (unfortunately).

[minionofmidas]

If the NDP allows for some reason a Tory majority I'll be pissed. And if the NDP allows my retard MP to be reelected they can all go DIAF.

Oh come on. If through any circumstance there ends up being a Conservative majority there is only one party to blame and it's the Liberals for

existing past their due date.

Which was the day the ti gars bowed out.

[Lief 🗽]

Forum Research Poll also shows the NDP surging, ahead of the Liberals nationally:

Conservative: 36%
NDP: 25%
Liberal: 23%
BQ: 6%
Greens: 6%

And ahead of the Bloc in Quebec (though presumably the MoE is high):

NDP: 34%
BQ: 25%
Liberals: 18%
Conservatives: 16%
Greens: 4%

http://www.thehilltimes.ca/dailyupdate/view/jack_finds_his_groove_ndp_in_reach_of_official_opposition_says_new_forum_research_poll_04-21-2011

[Meeker]

Riding polls. MoE on these is between 4-5% according to the local news sources that conducted them.

Sherbrooke
BQ: 59%
NDP: 15%
Cons: 9%
Libs: 9%
Greens: 7%

Gatineau
NDP: 33%
BQ: 29%
Libs: 24%
Cons: 11%
Greens: 3%

Avalon
Libs: 48%
Cons: 44%
NDP: 8%

St. John's East
NDP: 69%
Cons: 25%
Libs: 4%

St. John's South - Mount Pearl
Libs: 39%
NDP: 35%
Cons: 26%

[Хahar 🤔]

Duceppe just sounded like a lunatic to me half the time, but that may just be because I'm not used to hearing separatists.

Duceppe's always struck me as a decent fellow, but he doesn't really have a reason to care about the English debate.

[You kip if you want to...]

Does the Bloc differ much from its British counterparts, Plaid and the SNP?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does the Bloc differ much from its British counterparts, Plaid and the SNP?

Well the SNP and Plaid are very different, so what do you think?

The Bloc is very different though; remember that separatist politics in Quebec started at provincial level through the PQ and that the BQ and PQ remain separate parties (though with extremely close informal ties, of course). While both the SNP and Plaid now view elections to devolved bodies as being more important, it doesn't change the fact that they were shaped by their parliamentary representatives and by political activism outside electoral politics. So you have that massive difference in terms of political culture.

[Verily]

Does the Bloc differ much from its British counterparts, Plaid and the SNP?

Well the SNP and Plaid are very different, so what do you think?

The Bloc is very different though; remember that separatist politics in Quebec started at provincial level through the PQ and that the BQ and PQ remain separate parties (though with extremely close informal ties, of course). While both the SNP and Plaid now view elections to devolved bodies as being more important, it doesn't change the fact that they were shaped by their parliamentary representatives and by political activism outside electoral politics. So you have that massive difference in terms of political culture.

Language is the elephant in the room...

[You kip if you want to...]

Does the Bloc differ much from its British counterparts, Plaid and the SNP?

Well the SNP and Plaid are very different, so what do you think?

The Bloc is very different though; remember that separatist politics in Quebec started at provincial level through the PQ and that the BQ and PQ remain separate parties (though with extremely close informal ties, of course). While both the SNP and Plaid now view elections to devolved bodies as being more important, it doesn't change the fact that they were shaped by their parliamentary representatives and by political activism outside electoral politics. So you have that massive difference in terms of political culture.

Language is the elephant in the room...

Well, yeah. I still find it so alien seeing footage of the Canadian HoC and they just use French and English interchangeably.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Language is the elephant in the room...

Absolutely, yeah. Even when compared to Plaid.

[You kip if you want to...]

Language is the elephant in the room...

Absolutely, yeah. Even when compared to Plaid.

The Welsh language in Wales isn't really the same as French in Quebec, obviously.

[MaxQue]

Does the Bloc differ much from its British counterparts, Plaid and the SNP?

Well the SNP and Plaid are very different, so what do you think?

The Bloc is very different though; remember that separatist politics in Quebec started at provincial level through the PQ and that the BQ and PQ remain separate parties (though with extremely close informal ties, of course). While both the SNP and Plaid now view elections to devolved bodies as being more important, it doesn't change the fact that they were shaped by their parliamentary representatives and by political activism outside electoral politics. So you have that massive difference in terms of political culture.

Language is the elephant in the room...

Well, yeah. I still find it so alien seeing footage of the Canadian HoC and they just use French and English interchangeably.

MPs have earplugs, hearing all in the language they choose.
Same thing, on the Commons website, when listening in direct, you have 3 sound tracks (French, English and Floor).

[Leftbehind]

How about 5live?

[Hatman 🍁]

Gatineau
NDP: 33%
BQ: 29%
Libs: 24%
Cons: 11%
Greens: 3%

Is that it? That's rather discouraging. We should be at 50% in Gatineau if the provincial polls are to be believed.

[Хahar 🤔]

Presumably even the Outaouais is far more different from Anglo Canada than any part of Scotland or Wales is from England.

[Hatman 🍁]

Presumably even the Outaouais is far more different from Anglo Canada than any part of Scotland or Wales is from England.

Speaking of which, I'm going to try and bike into Hull this weekend to see what things are like there. I suspect based on the Gatineau poll, that the Liberals have a lead there.

[Hash]

Gatineau
NDP: 33%
BQ: 29%
Libs: 24%
Cons: 11%
Greens: 3%

Is that it? That's rather discouraging. We should be at 50% in Gatineau if the provincial polls are to be believed.

There was that Boivin scandal, or the NDP lead is media hype over polls which are potentially Zogby-likes or the NDP will be screwed by having high support spread out too wide.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ipsos Reid... Con 43, NDP 24, Lib 21, BQ 6

What's more significant? Dippers in second or the fact that the poll doth scream 'Tory Majority'?

[You kip if you want to...]

Ipsos Reid... Con 43, NDP 24, Lib 21, BQ 6

What's more significant? Dippers in second or the fact that the poll doth scream 'Tory Majority'?

I'd say Dippers. A majority for Harper's always been a possibility, NDP finishing second, not really.

What would the popular vote have to look like for the NDP to finish second in terms of seats? What is the reason for this surge btw?

[cinyc]

What would the popular vote have to look like for the NDP to finish second in terms of seats? What is the reason for this surge btw?

The NDP's ads are very well done and Iggy has been a real disappointment for the Liberals.  In particular, Iggy may have had a Howard Dean moment, repeatedly telling a crowd to "rise up, rise up, rise up!"  He's not coming across as Prime Ministerial.

Plus, Layton supposedly did well in the French-language debate, boosting the NDP's numbers in Quebec.  I didn't watch the French debate, but Iggy stunk in the English-language debate, in my opinion - he came across as entitled, impatient and surly.

[Verily]

Gatineau
NDP: 33%
BQ: 29%
Libs: 24%
Cons: 11%
Greens: 3%

Is that it? That's rather discouraging. We should be at 50% in Gatineau if the provincial polls are to be believed.

Well, the Sherbrooke poll way overstates the Bloc (has them on 59% when they barely passed 50% last time, and Liberals and Conservatives also way down without much gain for the NDP). The riding polls may systematically overestimate the Bloc (possible if they have trouble polling Anglophones, although there aren't many in Sherbrooke), or they may just suck, which is more likely.

Wouldn't take it seriously.

[Hash]

Ipsos Reid... Con 43, NDP 24, Lib 21, BQ 6

What's more significant? Dippers in second or the fact that the poll doth scream 'Tory Majority'?

Ipsos-Reid is always the most Tory of the major pollsters, so probably the former.

[Foucaulf]

What would the popular vote have to look like for the NDP to finish second in terms of seats? What is the reason for this surge btw?

The NDP's ads are very well done and Iggy has been a real disappointment for the Liberals.  In particular, Iggy may have had a Howard Dean moment, repeatedly telling a crowd to "rise up, rise up, rise up!"  He's not coming across as Prime Ministerial.

Plus, Layton supposedly did well in the French-language debate, boosting the NDP's numbers in Quebec.  I didn't watch the French debate, but Iggy stunk in the English-language debate, in my opinion - he came across as entitled, impatient and surly.

That Liberal ad is such a work of absurdity. Ignatieff's voice cracks a little bit when he tries to shout, and he's trying his damndest to rile up a group in which he's the youngest person. Then the audience golf-claps.
That's supposed to be inspiring?

But I watched the French debate, and not only does Ignatieff have an awkward accent, but he embodied the Bloc's "federalist Trudeau-loving Liberal" stereotype. Harper was a broken record and Duceppe was as usual. I would guess that the viewership was surprised by Layton's decent French and policy jabs, which is enough for left-wing voters hanging off the Bloc to jump ship. The Bloc piling on the NDP must keep the publicity going.

I'm seeing a media consensus that, as Liberal and NDP policies start blending together, the conception of the leader becomes all important. Layton has all the momentum in that aspect, which means he keeps siphoning Liberal voters who are far from the party's Toronto base.

I don't see a tipping point for the NDP until they can reach 27%+, though. What is encouraging is that their results have only improved in the past decade.

[2952-0-0]

Prime Minister Jack Layton, Deputy PM Bob Rae, Liberal Backbencher Michael Ignatieff, Opposition Leader Jim Prentice, Senator Stephen Harper?