Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually, would the May Day have the potential to help the NDP? As in, boosting morale and turnout among their core voters? Then again, they won't need much encouragement.

No, May Day isn't much associated with the labour movement in North America. Labour Day is in early September here, but even that has a kind of different role.

Don't forget Loyalty Day!

[Phony Moderate]

How many more polls can we expect? 

[Hatman 🍁]

How many more polls can we expect? 

At least one (Nanos)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Decima, Ipsos, Angus Reid, Environics. They all may, or may not, come out with last minute polls.

[UpcomingYouthvoter]

The liberals are toast if the NDP get any minority government. This could turn the Liberals into splitting parties like the progressive-conservative and reform did in the 90's or try to find someone that could bring back the party together.  Justin Trudeau  should become the leader of the Libs if they want to hold on their power in Canada politics.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm a bit confused about some of the predictions.  More or less everyone is predicting that in terms of seat totals (and popular vote), it'll be:

1st place: Cons
2nd place: NDP
3rd place: Libs
4th place: BQ

but with no party getting a majority.  But some are predicting an NDP minority government?  How will that work?  If, say, NDP+Libs has more seats than the Conservatives, but still not a majority, will the NDP really form a minority government propped up by both the Libs and BQ?  What is the likely threshold beyond which we'd expect to see an NDP minority government rather than a Conservative one?

[2952-0-0]

If the NDP wins outright and can be attributed to the Sun News massage story, then perhaps the "It's The Sun Wot Won It" headline from Britain in 1992 can ironically apply here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Harris-Decima they do say... Con 36, NDP 30, Lib 19, BQ 6, Greenies 6

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If the NDP forms the official opposition (or a minority government) are there any Liberal MPs (assuming they survive the onslaught) who might decide to decline the Liberal whip and either bolt to the NDP outright or simply go independent?

It's party policy not to accept turncoats.

I wonder whether that policy would survive if enough ex-Liberals are willing to switch to make a Conservative plurality into an NDP plurality.

[Phony Moderate]

Harris-Decima they do say... Con 36, NDP 30, Lib 19, BQ 6, Greenies 6

Changes from previous poll:

+ 1
NC
- 3
+ 1
- 1

[You kip if you want to...]

Just searched "Jack Layton" on youtube and this was the most recently uploaded video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycTJUkk1C2g

LOL, as bad as "Red Ed".

[Verily]

I'm a bit confused about some of the predictions.  More or less everyone is predicting that in terms of seat totals (and popular vote), it'll be:

1st place: Cons
2nd place: NDP
3rd place: Libs
4th place: BQ

but with no party getting a majority.  But some are predicting an NDP minority government?  How will that work?  If, say, NDP+Libs has more seats than the Conservatives, but still not a majority, will the NDP really form a minority government propped up by both the Libs and BQ?  What is the likely threshold beyond which we'd expect to see an NDP minority government rather than a Conservative one?

I would say that the Conservatives will form a minority unless they lose more than about ten seats, net, in which case that would be interpreted as a loss of a mandate and the NDP would govern for maybe eight months until another election. It would also be enough to ensure that Con+Bloc would not have a majority, so only the Liberals could prop up the Conservatives, and that would be political suicide for the Liberals. If either the Bloc or Liberals could prop up the Conservatives, they can shift blame between each other and not get pilloried for supporting the Conservatives. Also, the Bloc is likely to be reduced to its most conservative MPs in its most Conservative-favorable areas, so propping up the Conservatives will not be so weird for the rump Bloc caucus.

[Holmes]

Any sort of coalition or propping up with the help of the BQ would be toxic and unpopular. It would probably reverse any gains the NDP makes in the west. Plus, the Bloc is going to lose a lot tomorrow, they're probably not gonna have strong leadership or much sense of direction.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On eve of vote, Duceppe fighting for own riding

Back in March, who'd have thought a headline like that possible?

[You kip if you want to...]

To think, people were mentioning the possibility of Duceppe being the LotO not long ago...

[Verily]

Any sort of coalition or propping up with the help of the BQ would be toxic and unpopular. It would probably reverse any gains the NDP makes in the west. Plus, the Bloc is going to lose a lot tomorrow, they're probably not gonna have strong leadership or much sense of direction.

NDP+Libs having more seats than the Conservatives is enough to not need to "rely" on the Bloc. It's not like any government is likely to last more than a year in that scenario anyway; they may never even need to pass a budget.

[2952-0-0]

The evil side of me is hoping that Harper makes a half-assed attempt to get the Bloc to support his next budget by nakedly sweetening it up with goodies for Quebec and faces an open revolt from within the party.

[You kip if you want to...]

A possibility of 5 elections in 7 years, good lord.

[Meeker]

Final Nanos:

Cons: 37.1% (+0.1)
NDP: 31.6% (+1.0)
Libs: 20.5% (-2.2)
BQ: 5.7% (+0.2)
Greens: 3.8% (+0.6)

[Verily]

Final Nanos:

CON: 37.1 (+0.1)
NDP: 31.6 (+1.0)
LIB: 20.5 (-2.2)
BQ: 5.7 (+0.2)
Grn: 3.8 (+0.6)

Looks like the massage non-dal failed.

Edit: Meeker beat me

[Meeker]

You can post the regional breakdown there instead if you want

[Holmes]

I don't see a regional breakdown on the site.

[cinyc]

You can post the regional breakdown there instead if you want

I don't think Nanos provided one - yet.  Instead, he gave polling numbers for the last three days.  Today, Nanos polled more decided voters than usual: 702 - about double.  

Today's sample was:
Conservatives 38.7%
NDP 30.5%
Liberals 20.9%
Bloc 5.0%
Greens 3.7%
Other 1.3%
(MoE +/- 3.7%)

Yesterday was better for the NDP:
Conservatives 33.8%
NDP 33.8%
Liberal 19.9%
Bloc 7.1%
Greens 4.0%
Other 1.4%
(MoE +/- 5.3%)

While Friday was better for the Liberals:
Conservatives 36.5%
NDP 31.7%
Liberal 23.5%
Bloc 3.7%
Greens 3.7%
Other 0.8%
(MoE +/- 5.3%)

Caveat emptor on daily sample weighting, etc.

Undecideds were about 12% of the called sample every day, increasing from 11.7% on Friday to 12.2% on both Saturday and Sunday.

[2952-0-0]

Nanos regionals are now up. Atlantic now a three way race with NDP marginally in front. NDP still trouncing in Quebec and Liberals now in 4th place. Slight CPC uptick in Ontario with Liberals slightly falling. Liberals now embarrassingly close to Greens in Prairies. Slight NDP to Liberal shift in BC.

[Holmes]

Don't let the BC trend be real.