Canada 2011 Official Thread

[DL]

Actually, Forum has the NDP at 33% national not 32% - just a two point gap. Also, I think there is a mistake in that Quebec number its virtually impossible fpr the NDP to be at 49% in Montreal and at 33% in Quebec as a whol since Montreal is almost half the province and most polls have the NDP in the low 40s provincewide. I think there is a typo and that in fact its that the NDP is at 33% in "the rest of Quebec" and probably at about 41% in the whole province.

[Meeker]

Actually, Forum has the NDP at 33% national not 32% - just a two point gap. Also, I think there is a mistake in that Quebec number its virtually impossible fpr the NDP to be at 49% in Montreal and at 33% in Quebec as a whol since Montreal is almost half the province and most polls have the NDP in the low 40s provincewide. I think there is a typo and that in fact its that the NDP is at 33% in "the rest of Quebec" and probably at about 41% in the whole province.

Here's the article I got the number from: click

[Хahar 🤔]

Western Conservatives might conclude that their grip is slipping and decide to ditch him for a more western leader.

It's hard to think of a more Western leader than Harper, unless by the very act of forming government he has ceased to be Western (and the Reform Alte Kämpfer might see it that way).

[Insula Dei]

Western Conservatives might conclude that their grip is slipping and decide to ditch him for a more western leader.

It's hard to think of a more Western leader than Harper, unless by the very act of forming government he has ceased to be Western (and the Reform Alte Kämpfer might see it that way).

Didn't Harper grow up in Ontario?

[minionofmidas]

Western Conservatives might conclude that their grip is slipping and decide to ditch him for a more western leader.

It's hard to think of a more Western leader than Harper

Preston Manning.

[2952-0-0]

At this stage if the NDP forms government, the Liberals will have to lend their finance/economics experience since governing alone with an NDP finance minister would not be good either for the NDP or the country as a whole. It could be their final gift before the Liberals die.

[Lief 🗽]

Had a dream last night that the Tories won a 200+ seat majority and the NDP came in third. Sorry guys.

[Nichlemn]

Had a dream last night that the Tories won a 200+ seat majority and the NDP came in third. Sorry guys.

Do you often have political dreams? (I'm no better - I've dreamed about forum posting before).

[Hatman 🍁]

I think every night since the NDP got the lead in Quebec I have had dreams about the election.

[Meeker]

According to Nanos, Layton's "trust" ratings have actually increased since the massage story broke.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Had a dream last night that the Tories won a 200+ seat majority and the NDP came in third. Sorry guys.

The night between the 28th and the 29th I had a dream I was invited to Kate and William's wedding. I'm pretty sure you can relax Lief.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

At this stage if the NDP forms government, the Liberals will have to lend their finance/economics experience since governing alone with an NDP finance minister would not be good either for the NDP or the country as a whole. It could be their final gift before the Liberals die.

If the NDP forms the official opposition (or a minority government) are there any Liberal MPs (assuming they survive the onslaught) who might decide to decline the Liberal whip and either bolt to the NDP outright or simply go independent?

[redcommander]

God help Canada if the NDP somehow gets a minority government.

[Insula Dei]

God help Canada if the NDP somehow gets a minority government.

In that case, he already has.

[Hatman 🍁]

At this stage if the NDP forms government, the Liberals will have to lend their finance/economics experience since governing alone with an NDP finance minister would not be good either for the NDP or the country as a whole. It could be their final gift before the Liberals die.

If the NDP forms the official opposition (or a minority government) are there any Liberal MPs (assuming they survive the onslaught) who might decide to decline the Liberal whip and either bolt to the NDP outright or simply go independent?

It's party policy not to accept turncoats.

[Хahar 🤔]

Western Conservatives might conclude that their grip is slipping and decide to ditch him for a more western leader.

It's hard to think of a more Western leader than Harper

Preston Manning.

Fine, a more Western Prime Minister. Manning and Day would never have been able to win pluralities.

Had a dream last night that the Tories won a 200+ seat majority and the NDP came in third. Sorry guys.

The night between the 28th and the 29th I had a dream I was invited to Kate and William's wedding. I'm pretty sure you can relax Lief.

If we're discussing bad dreams we had, I dreamed that Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum were traded for Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson.

[Holmes]

EKOS

Conservatives: 34.6%
NDP: 31.4%
Liberals: 20.4%
BQ: 5.2%
Green: 6.3%

http://ipolitics.ca/2011/05/01/conservative-ndp-gap-narrows-to-three-points-in-dwindling-hours-of-campaign/

[Dan the Roman]

Basically, whoever the next Liberal leader is, they shouldn't become a Canadian Nick Clegg.

No, they should let the NDP form a government, and trigger an election when the government hits its first term blues. Its true the Tories wills stomp, but all that is important is that Liberals retake the official opposition. So if they are smart they wait a few months before knifing Iggy, and force an election of opportunity in partnership with Harper and the Bloc if there is an NDP minority. Everyone would have something to gain.

I appreciate your constant assertion that the NDP would be complete and utter catastrophe and incompetence in every conceivable way from Day 1, but that sort of immediate short term partisan strategy doesn't solve the problem the Liberals have been dealing with for several election cycles now. The Liberals aren't very used to dealing with the NDP in the position it's in now, and the Liberals have been slowly bleeding support for several years. People don't seem to see any reason to vote for the Liberals anymore.

The Liberal campaign this cycle has boiled down to Ignatieff being incredibly snotty and entitled. Ask him why people should vote for the Liberals, and he'll just respond with "because we're the Liberal Party." Well that doesn't seem to be good enough at this point anymore, especially with a much more noticeable left-wing alternative in the mainstream at the moment.

With Conservatives, you know roughly what you're getting. Layton is the most explicitly issues-focused of all three of them. Layton is giving people reasons to vote for the NDP. The Liberals haven't been able to do that at all.

Your strategy is a good one, I guess, if we go along with your assertion that the NDP is hopelessly incompetent and doomed from the minute they take any sort of power on the federal level (which I think is an incredibly stupid and presumptuous thing to assume before the election has even taken place) but it still doesn't solve the larger problem aside from the Liberals saying "we're not the other guy, we should govern because we're Liberals!"

It may give them one more opportunity to differentiate themselves, but the Liberals have given basically no indication at all that they know how to do that or what they want to differentiate themselves as.

Love them or hate them, the NDP is actually explaining what they are and what they want to do, and giving people a reasonable idea of what you get for an NDP vote. And whaddya know? People seem to be receptive to that.

Of course the NDP could succeed, but if they do, in either a governmental or opposition capacity, the Liberals are doomed in any case. I was just positing that the current status of the NDP as a major party is only three weeks old, and that the Liberals have an incentive not allow the next Parliament to live out its natural life if they come third, especially if the polls are much more favorable to them than they are now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

EKOS

Conservatives: 34.6%
NDP: 31.4%
Liberals: 20.4%
BQ: 5.2%
Green: 6.3%

On May Day as well. Nice. I mean, even if this ends in some form of bitterness, this part - right now - is nice.

[Lief 🗽]

EKOS

Conservatives: 34.6%
NDP: 31.4%
Liberals: 20.4%
BQ: 5.2%
Green: 6.3%

http://ipolitics.ca/2011/05/01/conservative-ndp-gap-narrows-to-three-points-in-dwindling-hours-of-campaign/

NDP is only down 34.8-32.4 among those "absolutely certain" to vote. Interesting.

Tories are at 40% in Ontario though, which is bad.

[Insula Dei]

Actually, would the May Day have the potential to help the NDP? As in, boosting morale and turnout among their core voters? Then again, they won't need much encouragement.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

EKOS regional figures...

BC: NDP 36, Con 36, Lib 15, Greenies 9
Alberta: Con 59, NDP 18, Lib 14, Greenies 7
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: Con 46.5, NDP 30.1, Lib 13.5, Greenies 7.6
Ontario: Con 40, Lib 27, NDP 26, Greenies 6
Quebec: NDP 40, BQ 23, Lib 15, Con 14, Greenies 4
Atlantic: NDP 41, Lib 28, Con 24, Greenies 4

[Linus Van Pelt]

Actually, would the May Day have the potential to help the NDP? As in, boosting morale and turnout among their core voters? Then again, they won't need much encouragement.

No, May Day isn't much associated with the labour movement in North America. Labour Day is in early September here, but even that has a kind of different role.

[The Mikado]

Question for those following this more closely than a once-a-week glance at the polls: What the hell is with Quebec and the NDP, of all things, surging there?  I understand the Grits' disintegration, but why is the BQ following?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

May Day here is more associated with Soviet Tanks. Labour day is in September.