Comprehensive NPR Poll

[12th Doctor]

What i find most interesting about that NPR poll is that when NPR gave the positioning statements for Kerry and Bush to the people, Kerry gained more support than Bush did.  I think once Kerry articulates what he is all about, that'll give him those few percent that can make the difference.

Okay, that makes me distrust the poll right there.  I was waiting for something to jump on.  NPR given the issue statements of the candidates, why not let NOW do it?  Or how about the AFL/CIO chairman?  I don't trust NPR to accuratly dipict the stances of the candidates anymore than I trust a Neo-Nazi to tell me why both sides went to war in WWII.

[12th Doctor]

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I'll predict Minnesota will go Republican before New Mexico does.  I think Bill Richardson's enormous popularity as Governor will give Kerry a narrow in NM.  I feel the same about Tom Vilsack in Iowa.

I think Minnesota has trended right more than any other state Al Gore won in 2000.

 

 

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The slimness of the win for Gore in 2000 was because of a really strong showing for the greens (La Duke), which wont be replicated this time around, in 2002 in both in the race for Governor and the Senate liberal third party candidates effectivley cost the Dems both races (as well as Tom Harkin but don’t get me started) I doubt that Mn will go to Bush but I'd say that would be more likely that WI going to Bush... however less likely than NM or IA (both of which might well go to W)....

Not true at all.  You clearly don't understand Minnesotans.  One of the main reasons Minnesota has such high turn-out is becuase of the number of independent voters that have a habit of voting niether Republican nor Democrat in local elections.  True the Dems used to dominate Minnesota's politics, but the colapse of the DFL has caused all sorts of wierd results in the state.  One could arrguee that Ventura cost Coleman the election in 1998.  Minnesota has changed drastically.  Just think, in 2002 they rejected one of their most favorite sons, Walter Mondale, a man who one by HUGE margins in the state in all of his Senate bids, back in the 60's and 70's and even managed to carry the state in the face of the mega-land-slide of Reagan in 84.  They rejected there old war horse in favor of an up-start who represent almost everything Mondale was against.  That singnals a change.  Minnesota has been slowly drifting to the GOP and this election will prove it conclusivly for once and for all time.

[12th Doctor]

Interesting statistic, with the exception of Mark Dayton's 6% win in the Senate elections and Betty McCollum's win in a heavily Democrat district, both in 2000, the DFL has not won a single election state or national seat in an open election in Minnesota since 1998 and haven't had state wide control since 1996.  Before that, DFL lock on Minnesota was something you could set you could always be certain of.