Does anybody here really think Jeb will be the nominee anymore?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'm a loyal Republican and will be supporting the nominee unless it's Trump.

The problem with the Republican Party today can be summed up in two words. Tea Party. What I'm about to say does not apply to everyone in the tea party, but it does apply to the majority. The Republican Party was redefined in a sense in the 1980 election with Ronald Reagan. The party became the party that is pro-military, for free markets and limited government, and a party that was socially conservative. However, conservatives like myself recognized that there is always a give and a take. For example, conservatives like me believe that taxes should be low, regulations should be at a minimal, and the federal government should spend only on those things it is designated to be responsible for in the constitution, plus the safety net which is social security, medicare, and medicaid. My point being, we believe in limited government, but not no government. In response to Barack Obama and to a lesser extent, George W. Bush, the tea party was formed. In the beginning, the tea party was about opposing government over reach and out of control spending.

The tea party has become a joke. It's now not folks opposing big government, it's old white folks who buy into conspiracy theories, who believe that immigrants are taking over the country, and who oppose Common Core. They have these ridiculous litmus tests that if you disagree with them on one issue, you are automatically a "RINO." The tea party has recently become a parody of it's former self. They now are opposed to free trade and yet, they claim to be for free markets. The reality is, the majority of those in the tea party do not understand the world they live in. They don't understand trade policy or economic policy in general. They fear anyone who looks different than them.

In 2010, the GOP won control of congress because of Obamacare. The tea party prevented us from winning the U.S. Senate, and we lost ground in 2012 because of the tea party. By 2014, Republican leaders confronted the tea party and we did very well. In this election, you basically have four tea party candidates. The first is Donald Trump. He's old, angry, white, and stupid. He's everything the tea party is made up of. You then have Ben Carson. There are some in the tea party who want to prove that their dislike of Obama isn't based on race, so they support Ben and besides, they hate all politicians. Ted Cruz has sought tea party backing more than anyone else, and because he comes up with great talking points, he has been successful in gaining their support. Rand Paul has tea party support, probably less so than the other three, because his father's supporters who are libertarian are in the tea party.

So, here comes Jeb Bush. He's definitely a free market supporter, he reduced taxes and the size and scope of state government. He's pro-military, pro-life, and for traditional marriage. He wants the federal government to be limited and yet, he's for the safety net. Moderates like him, some conservatives don't completely trust him, and the tea party hates him. Why? Well, for many conservatives, his position on immigration is just not where they stand. For the tea party, his position means he wants more brown people in America and is for amnesty, despite him opposing amnesty consistently. Finally, he believes in Common Core. Look, I disagree with him on this, but to go crazy over one differing position? That's silly.

My point is not to rant here, it's to prove a point. Jeb's opposition does come from some mainstream conservatives, but it mainly comes from the crazies. The same can be said about multiple candidates. With the crazy vote divided, Trump, Cruz, and Carson have no chance at this nomination. Santorum, Pataki, Fiorina, Graham, Gilmore, Perry, and Jindal either aren't connecting with voters and or have no money. That leaves us with Bush, Christie, Walker, Rubio, Huckabee, Kasich, and Paul. Paul's base of support is very limited, most mainstream conservatives and moderates won't back him. Huckabee has the loyalty of many social conservatives, but that isn't as large a part of the party as it once was. Mainstream conservatives who are distrustful of Bush are likely to either go with Walker, Kasich, or Rubio. Ideologically, Kasich and Rubio are most similar to Bush. Therefore, Bush being in the race essentially hurts Kasich and Rubio the most, but the fact that moderates are backing him over Chris Christie hurts Christie as well. That is why I believe Scott Walker is Jeb Bush's biggest challenger for the nomination. If it comes down to a choice between them, I can tell you anyone who wants to win should support Bush because Walker is Romney 2.0

tl;dr you hate Trump, tea partiers and libertarians you drool over Jebbo, we all know this...

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'm a loyal Republican and will be supporting the nominee unless it's Trump.

The problem with the Republican Party today can be summed up in two words. Tea Party. What I'm about to say does not apply to everyone in the tea party, but it does apply to the majority. The Republican Party was redefined in a sense in the 1980 election with Ronald Reagan. The party became the party that is pro-military, for free markets and limited government, and a party that was socially conservative. However, conservatives like myself recognized that there is always a give and a take. For example, conservatives like me believe that taxes should be low, regulations should be at a minimal, and the federal government should spend only on those things it is designated to be responsible for in the constitution, plus the safety net which is social security, medicare, and medicaid. My point being, we believe in limited government, but not no government. In response to Barack Obama and to a lesser extent, George W. Bush, the tea party was formed. In the beginning, the tea party was about opposing government over reach and out of control spending.

The tea party has become a joke. It's now not folks opposing big government, it's old white folks who buy into conspiracy theories, who believe that immigrants are taking over the country, and who oppose Common Core. They have these ridiculous litmus tests that if you disagree with them on one issue, you are automatically a "RINO." The tea party has recently become a parody of it's former self. They now are opposed to free trade and yet, they claim to be for free markets. The reality is, the majority of those in the tea party do not understand the world they live in. They don't understand trade policy or economic policy in general. They fear anyone who looks different than them.

In 2010, the GOP won control of congress because of Obamacare. The tea party prevented us from winning the U.S. Senate, and we lost ground in 2012 because of the tea party. By 2014, Republican leaders confronted the tea party and we did very well. In this election, you basically have four tea party candidates. The first is Donald Trump. He's old, angry, white, and stupid. He's everything the tea party is made up of. You then have Ben Carson. There are some in the tea party who want to prove that their dislike of Obama isn't based on race, so they support Ben and besides, they hate all politicians. Ted Cruz has sought tea party backing more than anyone else, and because he comes up with great talking points, he has been successful in gaining their support. Rand Paul has tea party support, probably less so than the other three, because his father's supporters who are libertarian are in the tea party.

So, here comes Jeb Bush. He's definitely a free market supporter, he reduced taxes and the size and scope of state government. He's pro-military, pro-life, and for traditional marriage. He wants the federal government to be limited and yet, he's for the safety net. Moderates like him, some conservatives don't completely trust him, and the tea party hates him. Why? Well, for many conservatives, his position on immigration is just not where they stand. For the tea party, his position means he wants more brown people in America and is for amnesty, despite him opposing amnesty consistently. Finally, he believes in Common Core. Look, I disagree with him on this, but to go crazy over one differing position? That's silly.

My point is not to rant here, it's to prove a point. Jeb's opposition does come from some mainstream conservatives, but it mainly comes from the crazies. The same can be said about multiple candidates. With the crazy vote divided, Trump, Cruz, and Carson have no chance at this nomination. Santorum, Pataki, Fiorina, Graham, Gilmore, Perry, and Jindal either aren't connecting with voters and or have no money. That leaves us with Bush, Christie, Walker, Rubio, Huckabee, Kasich, and Paul. Paul's base of support is very limited, most mainstream conservatives and moderates won't back him. Huckabee has the loyalty of many social conservatives, but that isn't as large a part of the party as it once was. Mainstream conservatives who are distrustful of Bush are likely to either go with Walker, Kasich, or Rubio. Ideologically, Kasich and Rubio are most similar to Bush. Therefore, Bush being in the race essentially hurts Kasich and Rubio the most, but the fact that moderates are backing him over Chris Christie hurts Christie as well. That is why I believe Scott Walker is Jeb Bush's biggest challenger for the nomination. If it comes down to a choice between them, I can tell you anyone who wants to win should support Bush because Walker is Romney 2.0

tl;dr you hate Trump, tea partiers and libertarians you drool over Jebbo, we all know this...

I had so much fun watching Chris Christie mop the floor with Rand Paul last night. I'm not even for Christie, but it was classic.

Cause we all know you're an elitist and a statist who'd rather just endlessly search people's records without due process, we get it.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'm a loyal Republican and will be supporting the nominee unless it's Trump.

The problem with the Republican Party today can be summed up in two words. Tea Party. What I'm about to say does not apply to everyone in the tea party, but it does apply to the majority. The Republican Party was redefined in a sense in the 1980 election with Ronald Reagan. The party became the party that is pro-military, for free markets and limited government, and a party that was socially conservative. However, conservatives like myself recognized that there is always a give and a take. For example, conservatives like me believe that taxes should be low, regulations should be at a minimal, and the federal government should spend only on those things it is designated to be responsible for in the constitution, plus the safety net which is social security, medicare, and medicaid. My point being, we believe in limited government, but not no government. In response to Barack Obama and to a lesser extent, George W. Bush, the tea party was formed. In the beginning, the tea party was about opposing government over reach and out of control spending.

The tea party has become a joke. It's now not folks opposing big government, it's old white folks who buy into conspiracy theories, who believe that immigrants are taking over the country, and who oppose Common Core. They have these ridiculous litmus tests that if you disagree with them on one issue, you are automatically a "RINO." The tea party has recently become a parody of it's former self. They now are opposed to free trade and yet, they claim to be for free markets. The reality is, the majority of those in the tea party do not understand the world they live in. They don't understand trade policy or economic policy in general. They fear anyone who looks different than them.

In 2010, the GOP won control of congress because of Obamacare. The tea party prevented us from winning the U.S. Senate, and we lost ground in 2012 because of the tea party. By 2014, Republican leaders confronted the tea party and we did very well. In this election, you basically have four tea party candidates. The first is Donald Trump. He's old, angry, white, and stupid. He's everything the tea party is made up of. You then have Ben Carson. There are some in the tea party who want to prove that their dislike of Obama isn't based on race, so they support Ben and besides, they hate all politicians. Ted Cruz has sought tea party backing more than anyone else, and because he comes up with great talking points, he has been successful in gaining their support. Rand Paul has tea party support, probably less so than the other three, because his father's supporters who are libertarian are in the tea party.

So, here comes Jeb Bush. He's definitely a free market supporter, he reduced taxes and the size and scope of state government. He's pro-military, pro-life, and for traditional marriage. He wants the federal government to be limited and yet, he's for the safety net. Moderates like him, some conservatives don't completely trust him, and the tea party hates him. Why? Well, for many conservatives, his position on immigration is just not where they stand. For the tea party, his position means he wants more brown people in America and is for amnesty, despite him opposing amnesty consistently. Finally, he believes in Common Core. Look, I disagree with him on this, but to go crazy over one differing position? That's silly.

My point is not to rant here, it's to prove a point. Jeb's opposition does come from some mainstream conservatives, but it mainly comes from the crazies. The same can be said about multiple candidates. With the crazy vote divided, Trump, Cruz, and Carson have no chance at this nomination. Santorum, Pataki, Fiorina, Graham, Gilmore, Perry, and Jindal either aren't connecting with voters and or have no money. That leaves us with Bush, Christie, Walker, Rubio, Huckabee, Kasich, and Paul. Paul's base of support is very limited, most mainstream conservatives and moderates won't back him. Huckabee has the loyalty of many social conservatives, but that isn't as large a part of the party as it once was. Mainstream conservatives who are distrustful of Bush are likely to either go with Walker, Kasich, or Rubio. Ideologically, Kasich and Rubio are most similar to Bush. Therefore, Bush being in the race essentially hurts Kasich and Rubio the most, but the fact that moderates are backing him over Chris Christie hurts Christie as well. That is why I believe Scott Walker is Jeb Bush's biggest challenger for the nomination. If it comes down to a choice between them, I can tell you anyone who wants to win should support Bush because Walker is Romney 2.0

tl;dr you hate Trump, tea partiers and libertarians you drool over Jebbo, we all know this...

I had so much fun watching Chris Christie mop the floor with Rand Paul last night. I'm not even for Christie, but it was classic.

Cause we all know you're an elitist and a statist who'd rather just endlessly search people's records without due process, we get it.

We all get that you care more about the civil liberties of terrorists than the security of American citizens.

American civil liberties come first, not the endless fear of being attacked.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

That is why I believe Scott Walker is Jeb Bush's biggest challenger for the nomination. If it comes down to a choice between them, I can tell you anyone who wants to win should support Bush because Walker is Romney 2.0

I don't know. After what happened with Todd Akin in 2012 the Republicans learned a lesson about avoiding candidates (particularly and perhaps unfairly, male candidates) from representing the Republican Party with extreme abortion positions. This, combined with the high likelihood of Clinton being the nominee, means that Scott Walker's abortion answer at the debate really dimmed his prospects for even being on the Republican ticket.

I'd say Rubio and Kasich are bigger threats to Bush than Walker is at this point.

I always thought Kasich would be the dark horse in this race, while yes he is behind in the polls I could see him rapidly rising to the top under the right circumstances.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Bush did terribly at the debate, the only way that I can see him winning the nomination is if the many other conservative candidates stay in the race post-NH and Jeb could use that to rally the more establishment Republicans around him while Cruz, Huckabee, Paul, Trump, etc., divides the conservative/not establishment vote.

Christie, Kasich and Rubio would have to perform poorly so that Jeb can shore up the moderate/establishment vote and support behind him.

He will also have to do moderately well in NH and SC at least.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Yeah, in some ways I could see Rubio being a major threat to Bush, but right now he is not polling too well, but he has his high favorables to work with.