UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Wiswylfen]

It's an Amounderness thing.

[CumbrianLefty]

Surely Fylde has to be at least considered, after this evening’s Back to Basics carnival?

Unless the MPs for Fylde and/or Hazel Grove resign pretty imminently, it is now too late for any other process (eg recall) to force byelections in their seats even if the GE is delayed to the end of 2024.

Maybe worth noting that the Tory candidate in the Blackpool South byelection is a Fylde party official.

[YL]

The Tory candidate in Blackpool South just happens to be the chair of Fylde Conservatives.

[YL]

Blackpool South polls have opened. Andrew Teale's Parliamentary Special.

[Blair]

Briefings reform might come 2nd are surely an effort to expectations manage??

[TheTide]

Briefings reform might come 2nd are surely an effort to expectations manage??

Is it based upon anything substantial or just a hunch going by the national polls? I haven't really heard anything about Reform putting much of an effort in.

[YL]

A Tory collapse on the scale of North Shropshire or Wellingborough would put Reform UK into contention for second, especially as they'd presumably be one of the beneficiaries. But has the Tory campaign been as bad as in those two?

[Cassius]

The Reform candidate is a local businessman who has also been involved in charity work in the constituency (food banks et al), so he may get a little bit of an extra boost from that.

[Oryxslayer]

32.5% turnout in Blackpool South

[Philly D.]

Declaration imminent.

[Oryxslayer]

Result:

Labour: 10825
Conservative: 3219
Reform: 3101
Lib-Dem: 387
Green: 368
Indie Black: 163
ADF: 147
Monster: 121
Indie Sharp: 45

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lawd

[MillennialModerate]

Ahh damn. So close to a Reform 2nd.

Dominate win for Labour. I wonder what the swing is

[GoTfan]

Who's the idiot shaking his head every time the Labour MP speaks?

[TheTide]

26% swing or thereabouts.

[Philly D.]

Was that Laura Kuenssberg speaking on the phone to a friend or family member during the victory speech???

[YL]

Well that really is a terrible result for the Tories, with their vote share down by more than in North Shropshire in spite of a considerably lower starting point, and a very strong Labour result. Reform's vote share is OK, but if you'd told me the Tory vote share I'd have guessed Reform would have overtaken them.

I wonder whether the goings on in Fylde spilled over a bit, given the Tory candidate's role in the Fylde local party.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are any more by-elections possible in this Parliament?

[YL]

Are any more by-elections possible in this Parliament?

Possible, but increasingly unlikely. If an MP resigned or died in the next month or so there’d still just about be time for a by-election before the summer recess; after that I think a seat would most likely be left vacant.

One possibility is Fermanagh & South Tyrone, as Michelle Gildernew is standing in the Republic’s European election.