Will Barack Obama be remembered as the Democrats' Nixon? (user search)
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  Will Barack Obama be remembered as the Democrats' Nixon? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Will Barack Obama be remembered as the Democrats' Nixon?  (Read 15342 times)
osideguy92
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Posts: 57
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« on: January 26, 2013, 08:17:31 PM »

I have my own theory of 40-50 year cycles in American presidential politics. Here is my view of it:

Class 1 (Multi-taskers): Transformative party figure who oversaw a period of economic stagnation/slow growth as well as wound down increasingly unpopular wars and ushered in new eras of international cooperation (14 Points for Wilson, China for Nixon, and Mideast for Obama). These administrations are also defined by peaks of domestic discontent (Suffragette/anti-WWI movement for Wilson, anti-Vietnam/Feminist movements for Nixon, and LGBT Rights/Occupy Wall Street/Tea Party for Obama)

Class 2 (Bunglers): Those who mishandle a promising economy and lead to their party being shunned for generations (Roaring Twenties to Great Depression for Harding/Coolidge/Hoover and Growth to Stagflation for Carter)

Class 3 (Ushers): Transformative figures who usher in new eras of dominance for their party and are remembered fondly by history.

Class 4 (Inheritors): The beneficiaries of Ushers (typically VPs like Johnson, Truman and Bush 41). These figures usually face massive challenges at home and abroad. Will typically undertake massively unpopular initiatives (Reconstruction, Korea War, etc.). These figures are usually viewed more kindly by history than right when they leave office.

Class 5 (Trusted Stewards): Members of the party of Class 2 Presidents who successfully manage to convince Americans to give their party a second look. Typified by a "move to the middle" within their own party as well as economic prosperity during their time in office (Eisenhower Republicans and Third Way Democrats under Clinton).

Class 6 (Epic -Ups): Administrations almost entirely defined by a single tragedy (Kennedy Assassination and 9/11) who ride the wave of popular opinion in its wake, only to have a presidency with potential crash and burn as a result of war or economic collapse.

Class 1: Wilson = Nixon/Ford = Obama
Class 2: Pierce/Buchanan = Harding/Coolidge/Hoover = Carter = GOP 2016 winner
Class 3: Lincoln = FDR = Reagan = DEM 2020 winner
Class 4: Johnson/Grant/Hayes/Garfield/Arthur = Truman = Bush 41
Class 5: Cleveland = Ike = Clinton
Class 6: McKinley/Teddy/Taft = JFK/LBJ = Bush 43
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