Iowa predictions
- Carson collapse completes itself; most of his voters go to Cruz.
- Insignificant drop in Trump support, but ultimately Cruz's pickup of Carson and undecided voters costs Trump the state.
- Paul and Rubio both overperform the polls
- O'Malley supporters largely defect the Sanders, putting him over the top.
- Des Moines Register once again comes closest to nailing the final outcome.
- Guess as to what that may look like:
Cruz 35%
Trump 27%
Rubio 14%
Paul 7%
Everyone Else <4%
Sanders 51%
Clinton 48%
O'Malley 1%
New Hampshire predictions
- Clinton once again beats expectations in New Hampshire, although it is still insufficient to obtain an outright win.
- Kasich beats the polls substantially
- Cruz surges in the polls, although his ultimate primary performance falls short of his polling surge
- Trump dips a little due to his disappointing Iowa performance, Christie is main beneficiary.
- Rubio gets hype, but fails to deliver.
- Bush sinks like a lead balloon.
- Guess as to what that may look like:
Trump 29%
Kasich 19%
Cruz 14%
Rubio 12%
Christie 12%
Paul 8%
Bush 5%
Sanders 53%
Clinton 45%
