Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[This account no longer in use.]

http://overtimepolitics.com/changes-to-overtime-politics-for-2016/ Overtime Politics just announced they will be asking and including demographic info now.

We did it Atlas!

131 emails, so it probably was't just Atlas, unless one of you e-mailed him 100 times.

Anybody else willing to bet that r/sandersforpresident had something to do with this?

[Holmes]

http://overtimepolitics.com/changes-to-overtime-politics-for-2016/ Overtime Politics just announced they will be asking and including demographic info now.

We did it Atlas!

131 emails, so it probably was't just Atlas, unless one of you e-mailed him 100 times.

Anybody else willing to bet that r/sandersforpresident had something to do with this?

Why would they? These polls have their boy doing so well, why would they want anything to change?

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

http://overtimepolitics.com/changes-to-overtime-politics-for-2016/ Overtime Politics just announced they will be asking and including demographic info now.

We did it Atlas!

131 emails, so it probably was't just Atlas, unless one of you e-mailed him 100 times.

Anybody else willing to bet that r/sandersforpresident had something to do with this?

Why would they? These polls have their boy doing so well, why would they want anything to change?

There's still a few reasonable folks. Out of 137,000ish, I'm sure that you could find at least 1/1000 that like him, but aren't Berniebots. They do call out some blatant BS polls (I saw a post about an Overtime poll on there and it was doing decently).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

http://overtimepolitics.com/changes-to-overtime-politics-for-2016/ Overtime Politics just announced they will be asking and including demographic info now.

We did it Atlas!

131 emails, so it probably was't just Atlas, unless one of you e-mailed him 100 times.

Anybody else willing to bet that r/sandersforpresident had something to do with this?

Why would they? These polls have their boy doing so well, why would they want anything to change?

There's still a few reasonable folks. Out of 137,000ish, I'm sure that you could find at least 1/1000 that like him, but aren't Berniebots. They do call out some blatant BS polls (I saw a post about an Overtime poll on there and it was doing decently).

I think most Bernie supporters realize that Overtime doesn't have much of a reputation. But it wouldn't take much for them to be better than Gravis and ARG, which seem to be about the only 2 other pollsters doing state polls recently.

[Mr. Morden]

But it wouldn't take much for them to be better than Gravis and ARG, which seem to be about the only 2 other pollsters doing state polls recently.

Probably because good pollsters aren't going to mess around trying to do polls around Christmas.  The other pollsters will presumably be back next week.

[Why]

But it wouldn't take much for them to be better than Gravis and ARG, which seem to be about the only 2 other pollsters doing state polls recently.

Probably because good pollsters aren't going to mess around trying to do polls around Christmas.  The other pollsters will presumably be back next week.

They are just lazy. They have an important job, they should not let a pesky thing like Christmas get in their way.

[Averroës Nix]

I wonder if that's why they're called "Overtime" Politics?

[Senator Cris]

I really don't think that Christie and Kasich are getting just 1% in a state like Vermont...

[This account no longer in use.]

I wonder if that's why they're called "Overtime" Politics?

ayy lmao

[mds32]

At least we can see what the demographics are of the polls.

[Likely Voter]

Some good reading from the National Council on Public Polls before even considering paying attention to these anonymous blog posts purported to be 'polls'...

Principles of Disclosure

20 Questions A Journalist Should Ask About Poll Results

[mds32]

They are set to release Oklahoma polls tonight. Which is odd, considering it is NYE they would put them out earlier in the day. Either way we might see a Cruz lead in the GOP poll if they are not controlling for anything.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^They aren't starting demographic questions until their Michigan poll on the 4th.

[mds32]

^They aren't starting demographic questions until their Michigan poll on the 4th.

I know, which means that this poll and their other poll that will come out later are not trustworthy. However, I think the Oklahoma poll has a chance of Cruz leading just because it is the neighboring state and anything can happen when you aren't measuring the demographics of the respondents.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

http://overtimepolitics.com/clinton-leads-sanders-by-10-points-in-oklahoma-51-41/

Hillary Clinton- 190 – 51%
Bernie Sanders – 150 – 41%
Martin O’Malley – 3 – 1%
Undecided – 27 – 7%

[Terry the Fat Shark]

http://overtimepolitics.com/donald-trump-holds-slight-lead-in-oklahoma-over-ted-cruz-32-28/

Donald Trump – 127 – 32%
Ted Cruz – 111 – 28%
Marco Rubio – 56 – 14%
Ben Carson – 24 – 6%
Jeb Bush – 15 – 4%
Rand Paul – 8 – 2%
Chris Christie – 7 – 2%
Carly Fiorina – 5 – 1%
John Kasich – 3 – <1%
Other – 17 – 4%
Undecided – 25 – 6%

[A Perez]

Overtime is the only polling firm that doesnt disclose phone number, address or owner name.

For comparison, PPP's "contact us" information has a physical address and phone number. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/contact/contact-us.html

CNN's ORC International is located at 315 Park Ave S, New York, NY 10010

Yougov is owned by Stephan Shakespeare and their phone # is. 650-319-0702

Overtime has something to hide. Who are they?

[Holmes]

Overtime is the only polling firm that doesnt disclose phone number, address or owner name.

For comparison, PPP's "contact us" information has a physical address and phone number. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/contact/contact-us.html

CNN's ORC International is located at 315 Park Ave S, New York, NY 10010

Yougov is owned by Stephan Shakespeare and their phone # is. 650-319-0702

Overtime has something to hide. Who are they?

Sandernistas.

[Tender Branson]

Who are they?

People who are afraid they will end up like Vince Foster if they disclose their names and residence.

[A Perez]

Who are they?

People who are afraid they will end up like Vince Foster if they disclose their names and residence.

Rush Limbaugh? It is an honor to have you here. Go Overtime!

[A Perez]

why do they do more dem primary than the GOP primary?  

RCP and HuffPo seem to not be taking them seriously.

HuffPo tend to update new data from new pollster really late.  Sometimes a month later. 

RCP is the picky one.  But they take almost all state polls.  Though, this pollster being new, may not be on their radar.

Atlas is the only place that update the fastest because multiple people using google and all.

How in the world have you keep track of how long those organizations take to include new posters? are you making that up

[weixiaobao]

why do they do more dem primary than the GOP primary?  

RCP and HuffPo seem to not be taking them seriously.

HuffPo tend to update new data from new pollster really late.  Sometimes a month later.  

RCP is the picky one.  But they take almost all state polls.  Though, this pollster being new, may not be on their radar.

Atlas is the only place that update the fastest because multiple people using google and all.

How in the world have you keep track of how long those organizations take to include new posters? are you making that up

I made them up.  Geez, what kind of loaded question is "are you making them up."

[weixiaobao]

12/16-12/17   2016 National Republican Primary   Trump   34%   Cruz   18%   PPP
12/16-12/17   2016 National Republican Primary   Trump   36%   Carson   12%   Morning Consult
12/10-12/13   2016 National Democratic Primary   Clinton   59%   Sanders   28%   ABC News/Washington Post
12/13-12/17   2016 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary   Sanders   48%   Clinton   46%   Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald
12/13-12/17   2016 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary   Trump   26%   Rubio   12%   Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald
11/4-11/8   Party Identification   independent   39%   Democrat   30%   Gallup
10/7-10/11   Party Identification   independent   42%   Democrat   29%   Gallup
9/9-9/13   Party Identification   independent   43%   Republican   27%   Gallup
8/5-8/9   Party Identification   independent   41%   Democrat   31%   Gallup
7/8-7/12   Party Identification   independent   46%   Democrat   28%   Gallup
6/2-6/7   Party Identification   independent   41%   Democrat   31%   Gallup
12/16   2016 Florida Republican Presidential Primary   Trump   30%   Cruz   20%   Opinion Savvy/Fox 13/ Florida Times-Union
12/16   2016 Georgia Republican Presidential Primary   Trump   35%   Cruz   16%   Opinion Savvy/Fox 5 Atlanta

Do you not see June and July data entered in December?  Usually meant, they are now tracking of something that they didn't track before.  This being party identification.

10/24-11/5   2016 Arizona Presidential GE   Clinton   47%   Sanders   19%   Behavior Research Center
11/15-11/17   2016 National Republican Primary   Trump   24%   Carson   20%   Bloomberg/Selzer
11/9-11/13   2016 Virginia Presidential GE   Clinton   50%   Trump   36%   Roanoke College
11/16-11/18   Obama Job Approval   Disapprove   54%   Approve   44%   Rasmussen Reports
11/15-11/17   2016 New Hampshire Presidential GE   Rubio   47%   Clinton   40%   FOX News
11/16-11/17   2016 General Election   Rubio   45%   Clinton   43%   PPP
11/16-11/17   2016 National Republican Primary   Trump   26%   Carson   19%   PPP
11/15-11/17   2016 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary   Trump   27%   Rubio   13%   FOX News
11/15-11/17   Obama Job Approval   Disapprove   51%   Approve   44%   Bloomberg/Selzer
11/15-11/17   Obama Job Approval   Disapprove   50%   Approve   45%   Gallup
11/15-11/17   Obama Job Approval   Disapprove   55%   Approve   44%   Rasmussen Reports
11/13-11/16   2016 Connecticut Presidential Republican Primary   Trump   25%   Rubio   14%   Emerson College Polling Society
11/11-11/15   2016 Colorado Presidential Republican Primary   Carson   25%   Rubio   19%   Quinnipiac University
11/14-11/15   2016 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary   Trump   23%   Carson   13%   MassINC/WBUR
11/7-11/11   2016 National Republican Primary   Trump   33%   Carson   17%   Ipsos/Reuters (Web)
11/4-11/9   2016 Virginia Presidential Republican Primary   Carson   29%   Trump   24%   University of Mary Washington/PSRAI
11/14-11/16   Obama Job Approval   Approve   49%   Disapprove   47%   Gallup
11/12-11/16   2015 Louisiana Governor   Edwards   48%   Vitter   42%   Red Racing Horses/PMI
11/7-11/12   North Carolina: Obama Job Approval   Disapprove   49%   Approve   43%   High Point University
11/14-11/16   2015 Louisiana Governor   Edwards   51%   Vitter   35%   JMC Analytics and Polling
11/7-11/8   2016 South Carolina Presidential GE   Carson   51%   Clinton   39%   PPP
11/12-11/16   Obama Job Approval   Disapprove   54%   Approve   44%   Rasmussen Reports
11/13-11/16   2016 National Republican Primary   Trump   38%   Carson   19%   Morning Consult
11/4-11/8   Obama Job Approval - Foreign Policy   Disapprove   59%   Approve   37%   Gallup
11/11-11/13   2015 Louisiana Governor   Edwards   53%   Vitter   38%   MRI
10/29-11/4   Obama Job Approval   Approve   48%   Disapprove   48%   McClatchy/Marist
11/8-11/12   US Right Direction Wrong Track   Wrong Track   67%   Right Direction   28%   Rasmussen Reports
11/13-11/15   Obama Job Approval   Approve   51%   Disapprove   44%   Gallup
11/4-11/8   New Jersey: Obama Job Approval   Disapprove   52%   Approve   45%   Quinnipiac University
11/11-11/15   Obama Job Approval   Disapprove   54%   Approve   44%   Rasmussen Reports
11/12-11/14   Obama Job Approval   Approve   50%   Disapprove   45%   Gallup
11/11-11/13   Obama Job Approval   Approve   48%   Disapprove   48%   Gallup
11/11   2015 Louisiana Governor   Edwards   48%   Vitter   42%   MarblePort Polling/Hayride
11/9-11/10   2015 Louisiana Governor   Edwards   52%   Vitter   38%   MRI
11/11   2016 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary   Trump   29%   Cruz   12%   Gravis Marketing
11/1-11/5   US Right Direction Wrong Track   Wrong Track   66%   Right Direction   27%   Rasmussen Reports
10/25-10/29   US Right Direction Wrong Track   Wrong Track   65%   Right Direction   27%   Rasmussen Reports
4/9-4/15   2016 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary   Undecided (Vol.)   23%   Walker   13%   Burning Glass /Partnership for a New American Economy
4/9-4/15   2016 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary   Undecided (Vol.)   19%   Bush   16%   Burning Glass /Partnership for a New American Economy
4/9-4/15   2016 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus   Walker   20%   Undecided (Vol.)   17%   Burning Glass /Partnership for a New American Economy
10/29-11/4   2016 National Democratic Primary   Clinton   57%   Sanders   35%   McClatchy/Marist
11/4-11/8   Obama Health Care Law: Favor/Oppose   Disapprove   52%   Approve   44%   Gallup
11/10-11/12   Obama Job Approval   Disapprove   49%   Approve   47%   Gallup
11/10-11/12   Obama Job Approval   Disapprove   53%   Approve   46%   Rasmussen Reports
11/11-11/12   2016 National Republican Primary

Here for example, they found out about this Burning Glass polls (in April) in November and just entered in November.

Anyway, I have negative perception of your posts before.  I don't remember exactly how you ticked me off.  But you did probably couple of months ago.  Chances are, I probably will not reply to you again.

But since I already did the leg work for your loaded question.  The people work at Huffpollster are very human.  They got data (I don't know how) probably via various meant but also googling like how the people in this forum get the data for the polling archive.  And as a person who google for polls almost everyday.  Some polls just doesn't quite show up like Dan Jones, or Silver Bullet before.  And or poll that I found out today but didn't realize they have been doing couple polls before that (hence I entered in my own excel archive).  It just simple logic.

Who know, Huffpollster may deemed overtime as completely fake and may not insert that into their data.  I don't know.  But Overtime doesn't appear in Google search in simple search phrases like "latest poll" or something like that before (maybe they do in the future).

Good?  Just basic common sense, really.

[A Perez]

why do they do more dem primary than the GOP primary?  

RCP and HuffPo seem to not be taking them seriously.

HuffPo tend to update new data from new pollster really late.  Sometimes a month later.  

RCP is the picky one.  But they take almost all state polls.  Though, this pollster being new, may not be on their radar.

Atlas is the only place that update the fastest because multiple people using google and all.

How in the world have you keep track of how long those organizations take to include new posters? are you making that up

I made them up.  Geez, what kind of loaded question is "are you making them up."

Tell us how many new pollsters were included in RCP or HuffPo in a month or so. If you don't, you just expect us to have blind faith in what you say. By the way, soon it will be the one month anniversary of overtime's first poll. do you predict they will be included in RCP or  Huffington Post?

[A Perez]

I emailed overtime asking for their physical address or phone number. I got this reply:

"After receiving the kinds of emails I have received, directed at me personally, I will not be sharing my address, since Overtime Politics is run out of my home. In the near future, I will be forming an LLC though, and would more than happy to give a physical address at that point".