State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2 (user search)
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  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2  (Read 170166 times)
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« on: April 19, 2018, 09:08:57 AM »
« edited: April 19, 2018, 09:16:25 AM by Fmr. Pres. Griff »
I encourage anybody who is interested in past (or future) special elections to visit my stickied thread on the congressional board.

There, you'll find the margins for each district from the 2016 legislative race (or in a few cases, 2014/2015) and the 2016 presidential, along with the special election margin and swing. All data is available in the first two posts of the thread.


Related: it looks like we have quite a few potentially competitive special elections coming up over the next month:

Quote from: Fmr. Pres. Griff on April 19, 2018, 09:03:18 AM
Competitive Specials in the Next 30 Days:
Congr   AZ   8   -   4/24/18
House   NY   10   -   4/24/18
House   NY   107   -   4/24/18
House   NY   142   -   4/24/18
House   FL   114   -   5/1/18
House   PA   48   -   5/15/18
House   PA   178   -   5/15/18

Color denotes which party held seat prior to vacancy
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2018, 08:08:40 PM »
LOL
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #2 on: April 24, 2018, 08:16:39 PM »
http://www.westchestergov.com/boe99/linkcounty.aspx
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #3 on: April 24, 2018, 08:18:43 PM »

Link is right above the image.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #4 on: April 24, 2018, 08:20:37 PM »
Mayer's lead keeps expanding: now at more than 1500 votes

http://www.westchestergov.com/boe99/linkcounty.aspx
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #5 on: April 24, 2018, 08:22:16 PM »
Now at approximately 1650 votes:

http://www.westchestergov.com/boe99/linkcounty.aspx
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #6 on: April 24, 2018, 08:24:51 PM »
Now at 1828:
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #7 on: April 24, 2018, 08:26:10 PM »
Mayer up by 2024 votes now; if this doesn't start reversing very soon, I'm calling it:
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #8 on: April 24, 2018, 08:28:40 PM »
Over one-third of precincts reporting and Mayer's lead continues to grow: now at 2262 votes. If this 13-16 point margin is still holding once 40% are reporting, it's a done deal.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #9 on: April 24, 2018, 08:30:33 PM »
Mayer now up by 2887 votes; almost in the bag:
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #10 on: April 24, 2018, 08:32:33 PM »

Clinton won by 22, so she's not hitting presidential numbers...the Democratic incumbent won it by 11 in 2016. An average of those two (which is how I'm calculating swing in my special elections thread) would be around 17 points, which Mayer is at roughly at the moment.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #11 on: April 24, 2018, 08:34:25 PM »
Mayer up by 3343 votes now. This is over:
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #12 on: April 24, 2018, 08:37:19 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on April 24, 2018, 08:33:39 PM
Uh-oh. Stern (D) losing narrowly in early results from Suffolk County AD-10 where a flip was expected. It's an obama-clinton seat.

http://apps.suffolkcountyny.gov/boe/eleres/18s1/flashresults.html

Only about 350 votes thus far. We don't have a clear indicator of what's happening yet.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #13 on: April 24, 2018, 08:39:54 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on April 24, 2018, 08:36:22 PM
Yep. Republican leading 55-45 in Erie County AD-142 with 50% reporting. R Flip incoming here.

https://www.erieelectionresults.com/nys.aspx

Y'all didn't believe me when I made my writeup.

Margin is closing:
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #14 on: April 24, 2018, 08:42:25 PM »
Major dump in AD-10: Stern ahead by 12 with 57% reporting:
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #15 on: April 24, 2018, 08:44:14 PM »
AD142 is likely gone.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #16 on: April 24, 2018, 08:46:39 PM »
64% reporting in AD-10 and Stern still holds a 10-point lead:
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #17 on: April 24, 2018, 08:47:50 PM »
Burke's margin of loss narrowing a bit in 142 but he'd need basically two-thirds of the outstanding vote to win:
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #18 on: April 24, 2018, 08:51:04 PM »
It's long since over, but 65% of precincts reporting in SD37 and Mayer is maintaining a 57-43 margin closing in on 5000 votes.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #19 on: April 24, 2018, 08:53:01 PM »
Gonna need to keep an eye on 107...
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #20 on: April 24, 2018, 08:56:53 PM »
Looks like all of 107's totals are coming out of Rensselaer County. Washington doesn't have anything up yet and I can't even find where Columbia's is.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #21 on: April 24, 2018, 08:58:19 PM »
Found them (107):

Columbia: https://sites.google.com/a/columbiacountyny.com/elections/election_information/election-results/election-night-results
Washington: https://www.washingtoncountyny.gov/802/Current-Elections-Results
Rensselaer: http://www.rensco.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/SP_E_18_1_Summary-report.html
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #22 on: April 24, 2018, 09:00:56 PM »
Quote from: BundouYMB on April 24, 2018, 09:00:12 PM
AD102 where the Democrat is currently up 10 points is R+12...

Pretty impressive: Trump won by 23. Let's see if it holds.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #23 on: April 24, 2018, 09:07:30 PM »
102:
O'Connor: 51.61%
Tague: 46.49%
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
« Reply #24 on: April 24, 2018, 09:13:57 PM »

That would make the current result a 400-vote lead for Tague.

Why is that third guy getting almost 30% of the vote?
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