Conservatives' advantage in midterm election years

[eric82oslo]

Gallup releases annual data on the US electorate's ideological leanings every year and asks voters on two different subgroups; economic and social ideology.

Here are Gallup's stats on the last three midterm election year + their just released 2014 stats, based on net conservative (or liberal) leanings on the two issues:

2002:
Economic issues: Conservatives +26%
Social issues: Conservatives +14%

2006:
Economic issues: Conservatives +32%
Social issues: Conservatives +11%

2010:
Economic issues: Conservatives +36%
Social issues: Conservatives +17%

2014:
Economic issues: Conservatives +21%
Social issues: Conservatives +4%

Both percentages this year do in fact mark a record low since the turn of the millenium. Even vastly improving on the ideological leanings of the electorate in the Democratic wave election of 2006.

That gives us this chart:



Read more in Washington Post here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/05/28/conservatives-are-losing-their-edge-quickly/

[Person Man]

It seems that there is even less conservatism now than there was in the 2008 campaign but this may or not mean anything and in fact, some still thought that McCain could win until the run on the banks in September.

[IceSpear]

I wonder how many moderates are actually liberals, but won't say it because "liberal" is a dirty word.

[GaussLaw]

I wonder how many moderates are actually liberals, but won't say it because "liberal" is a dirty word.

It's much more socially acceptable to call oneself a conservative than a liberal in most parts of the country.  Heck, most of my friends probably think I'm a Republican(this is central Missouri, not exactly liberal country).

[eric82oslo]

I wonder how many moderates are actually liberals, but won't say it because "liberal" is a dirty word.

Good point indeed.

[Person Man]

Conservative versus Progressive then?

[Never]

Thanks to OP for the data.

It would seem that the nation has become more polarized since the turn of the millennium, which possibly explains why the conservative advantage is shrinking. If we see even fewer people identifying as  moderates 10 years from now, the conservative advantage on economic issues might be only ten points or so, and a conservative advantage on social issues could be nonexistent.

[IceSpear]

I wonder how many moderates are actually liberals, but won't say it because "liberal" is a dirty word.

Apparently a lot.