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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 666117 times)
President Johnson
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« Reply #3950 on: October 14, 2018, 11:06:37 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 14, 2018, 11:03:57 AM
While the results for the CSU is bad, the SPD on the other hand ... LOL.

-23% for the so-called "Grand" Coalition in Berlin. Nice job. Well done.

Same was in Baden-Württemberg in 2016.

But a disaster the SPD is in FIFTH place.

I hope CSU+Free Voters won't have majority.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3951 on: October 14, 2018, 11:07:25 AM »
voter turnout: 72.5%
(2013: 63.9%)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3952 on: October 14, 2018, 11:08:51 AM »
If the FDP fails with the 5%, the CSU can choose any partner they want ...
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jaichind
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« Reply #3953 on: October 14, 2018, 11:10:58 AM »
SPD plus Greens plus Left is almost same as 2013
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3954 on: October 14, 2018, 11:11:36 AM »
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President Johnson
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« Reply #3955 on: October 14, 2018, 11:12:31 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 14, 2018, 11:08:51 AM
If the FDP fails with the 5%, the CSU can choose any partner they want ...

The ARD said that it's likely their numbers are going up a little. So, I think they'll be in.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #3956 on: October 14, 2018, 11:13:09 AM »
According to those seat projections, here are some of the discussed coalitions and how they stand as of now (obviously some of these, especially the first one, probably won't happen):

CSU + Grüne: 114/192
CSU + FW + FDP: 109/192
CSU + FW: 98/192
Grüne + FW + SPD + FDP: 95/192

So CSU + FW would work and is, from my understanding, the most likely outcome. However, the four-party coalition, if FW and FDP are still in the running there, is very close...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3957 on: October 14, 2018, 11:14:05 AM »

Should include the SPD as well ...
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DavidB.
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« Reply #3958 on: October 14, 2018, 11:15:45 AM »
CSU-FW would be a fine coalition for Bavaria, and a CSU that turned further rightwards + a super right-wing AfD received almost half of the statewide vote. The media are obviously going to spin about the Greens that they love so much (yet received only half the score of the CSU) but will conveniently ignore that almost all of these new Green voters simply voted for the SPD before.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3959 on: October 14, 2018, 11:16:29 AM »
Results page now online:

https://www.landtagswahl2018.bayern.de/index.html

Of course, no results so far.
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3960 on: October 14, 2018, 11:16:46 AM »
Is there any chart showing how voters voted in 2013 compared to today?
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jaichind
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« Reply #3961 on: October 14, 2018, 11:16:53 AM »
The media reports this as some earthquake and humiliation ofCSU. But these results seem reasonable for CSU given AfD is going to run and get their low double digit vote share.  
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3962 on: October 14, 2018, 11:19:06 AM »
Quote from: The Saint on October 14, 2018, 11:16:46 AM
Is there any chart showing how voters voted in 2013 compared to today?
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jaichind
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« Reply #3963 on: October 14, 2018, 11:19:39 AM »
If the center left voter wanted to stop CSU-FW they should have tactically voted Linke
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3964 on: October 14, 2018, 11:19:45 AM »
Quote from: The Saint on October 14, 2018, 11:16:46 AM
Is there any chart showing how voters voted in 2013 compared to today?

https://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2018-10-14-LT-DE-BY/index.shtml
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EPG
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« Reply #3965 on: October 14, 2018, 11:20:53 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 14, 2018, 11:03:57 AM
While the results for the CSU is bad, the SPD on the other hand ... LOL.

-23% for the so-called "Grand" Coalition in Berlin. Nice job. Well done.

Hard luck, you guys who sympathise with the neo-Nazi AfD party only got 11%. It suggests most people in real life do not actually agree with you or the neo-Nazis.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3966 on: October 14, 2018, 11:22:41 AM »
Governor Söder speaking.
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Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3967 on: October 14, 2018, 11:24:18 AM »

Do you happen to know if those are live results?
Or do I have to keep on refreshing that site?
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3968 on: October 14, 2018, 11:26:50 AM »

Where is it? Sorry, I couldn't find it.

EDIT: I realize I was unclear. I meant a graphic showing how, for example, SPD voters in 2013 voted this year.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3969 on: October 14, 2018, 11:28:09 AM »
Söder not stepping down it seems.
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Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3970 on: October 14, 2018, 11:28:24 AM »
First projection:
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3971 on: October 14, 2018, 11:30:03 AM »
First ZDF projection:
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Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3972 on: October 14, 2018, 11:32:34 AM »
Opinion of possible coalition partners:
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3973 on: October 14, 2018, 11:32:38 AM »
Quote from: The Saint on October 14, 2018, 11:26:50 AM

Where is it? Sorry, I couldn't find it.

EDIT: I realize I was unclear. I meant a graphic showing how, for example, SPD voters in 2013 voted this year.

There's no voter-stream analysis yet.
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Diouf
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« Reply #3974 on: October 14, 2018, 11:33:32 AM »
ARD just showed a voter movement analysis. Greens won 210.000 votes from SPD, 200.000 from CSU and 140.000 from new/nonvoters.
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