2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[King of Kensington]

Big swing to the Liberals among Chinese voters.  Did O'Toole's "get tough on China" talk hurt?

[King of Kensington]

Yes, looking at the results by riding the PPC vote was very "Trumpy" (rural and rust belt).

[King of Kensington]

The PPC might have made the difference in Sault Ste. Marie.

[King of Kensington]

The GTA-ization of the Lower Mainland of BC has been confirmed. 

[King of Kensington]

Saskatchewan has displaced Alberta as the most conservative province.

[King of Kensington]

Yes Jagmeet's NDP has become very much a party of millennials in gentrified or gentrifying areas.

The Toronto riding of Parkdale-High Park is a good example.  The NDP ran a super-"woke" candidate, Paul Taylor, who greatly improved the vote share and is in a very good position to take it next time.  

[King of Kensington]

Scarborough North (40%+ Chinese) actually ended up with the highest Liberal vote share in the GTA (66.5%).  The Conservative share plummeted from 30% to 19%.  The second largest ethnic community is the Tamil community which is already super-Liberal (after going NDP once in 2011).

In the last federal election (and also 2018 provincial) you could really see the difference in results between "Chinese Scarborough" (Agincourt and Scarborough North ridings, 30%+ Conservative in '19, 50% for the Ford PCs) and the rest (where federal Conservatives were in the 20s and the PCs below 40%), but this time much less evident.

[King of Kensington]

So Souris-Moose Mountain was the top Conservative riding.

[King of Kensington]

Looking at the Toronto results, the NDP held its ground and came close in Davenport and improved in Parkdale-High Park.  The west end is clearly the most left-wing part of the city.  The other big improvement was Spadina-Fort York (exceptional circumstances).

No change at all in Danforth.  Which kind of confirms my feeling that there isn't anything "special" about Danforth for the NDP, the Layton legacy and Riverdale canvassing model aside.

Also no change at all in the minority-majority working class inner suburbs (York South-Weston, Scarborough Southwest etc.)

[King of Kensington]

An example of "Americanization" of voting patterns:  York Centre (Russian/Orthodox Jewish) and Etobicoke Centre (white Catholic ethnic) were the top ridings for Conservative and combined CPC+PPC vote share in Toronto.

Meanwhile, the "uniquely Canadian" Chinese CPC vote evaporated.

[King of Kensington]

Etobicoke Centre & Etobicoke-Lakeshore are weird ones--a greater-than-usual 416 Lib share slide and CPC share rise in both.  And it couldn't just be a "Ford Nation" thing...or could it?  (Yet there wasn't such a dramatic swing in Doug Ford's Etobicoke North.)

Also, Maurice Cormier in Etobicoke Centre getting by far the best PPC result in the 416--what's up with that?  (Though I notice that *both* 416 ridings where PPC got over 5%--this, and Don Valley East--are ridings where the Greens weren't running.)

Establishmentarian Kingsway is in Lakeshore no?  Etobicoke Centre has some wealth too but it's newer and more "Catholic ethnic."  Doug Ford's home Census Tract is 23% Italian ancestry.

[King of Kensington]

I think a lot of the more pertinent "Catholic ethnic" in the case of those Etobicoke ridings might be Eastern European than Italian.  (But when it comes to Italo-Catholic, the fact that King-Vaughan flipped the other way from AORRH and Vaughan-Woodbridge turned out to be a tighter race than Richmond Hill or even Markham-Unionville is indicative.)

Stevo from EPP needs to retire the "Vaughan Italians are uniquely and especially Liberal" line.

[King of Kensington]

Re: condos, the NDP's Breen Ouellette just achieved the party's best result in Vancouver Centre since Hedy Fry was first elected.

[King of Kensington]

City of Toronto

Liberals  578,902  52.1%
Conservatives  263,237  23.7%
NDP  202,420  18.4%
PPC  38,153  3.4%
Greens  23,254  2.1%

[King of Kensington]

Given the growing metropolitan/nonmetropolitan polarization, it's not surprising to see Peterborough lose its "bellwether" status - it's just less and less representative of modern-day, diverse Canada. O'Toole also represents a nearby riding.

[King of Kensington]

Average HH income

Don Valley West  $216,158
Oakville  $177,283
University-Rosedale  $170,832
Eglinton-Lawrence  $162,674
St. Paul's  $155,470

Top Decile

Don Valley West  33.2%
Oakville  29.7%
Eglinton-Lawrence  27.2%
St. Paul's  24.9%
University-Rosedale  24.9%

[King of Kensington]

Some ridings where the NDP vote increased significantly:

Vancouver-Granville  +20.4
Edmonton-Griesbach  +14.9
Spadina-Fort York  +14.4
Halifax  +9.6
Guelph  +8.8
Edmonton Centre  +8.4
Parkdale-High Park  +7.7
Vancouver Centre  +6.8
Kingston and the Islands  +6.0

They did well in inner city districts and university towns

[King of Kensington]

The decline of the NDP in the industrial centers of Ontario is really quite striking.  Charlie Angus down to 35%.  Third place in Nickel Belt for the first time since the 1960s.  Third place in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. The old working class "labor party" constituency has eroded.

[King of Kensington]

Even with the Liberal trend in Metro Van, it's interesting to see there's a contiguous "orange corridor" running from East Van through the eastern suburbs

[King of Kensington]

Be interested in knowing how Avi Lewis did in the various municipalities of West Van-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country.  Maybe I'll tally it up.