Why is the Trump campaign spending resources in Utah?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Mike Pence was in Salt Lake City today, but why? Clinton doesn't have a high enough ceiling, and if McMullin wins the worst it could do is send the election to the House, which will elect Trump in any circumstance. The 6 EVs are effectively locked in.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I can only assume they must be worried about this?  Any other way to make Utah matter requires something really esoteric.

But like I said, even in that scenario the House elects Trump as President. So what is the real downside of losing UT to a third party?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I wouldn't say that it's guaranteed that Trump would be elected if the election was thrown into the House.  You'd have enough Republicans who refuse to back him that things could get interesting, and McMullin could matter greatly.

Refusing to elect a GOP Presidential candidate would destroy the party. There's no way House Republicans would be that stupid.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I wouldn't say that it's guaranteed that Trump would be elected if the election was thrown into the House.  You'd have enough Republicans who refuse to back him that things could get interesting, and McMullin could matter greatly.

Refusing to elect a GOP Presidential candidate would destroy the party. There's no way House Republicans would be that stupid.

Not if they manage to hold the Senate, and can thus get President Pence instead.  And it's not like it would necessarily take that many defections to block Trump in the House anyway.  The House Republican caucus would mostly vote for Trump, but a few defections could sink him.

Couping the Trump faction wouldn't start a civil war because they would accept President Pence? There is no scenario where ~50% of the country would vote for a candidate as President and then his party would accept him being couped. The long-term irreparable damage done to the GOP would outweigh the costs of simply letting Trump into the White House and containing him institutionally.

- If the House simply lets the position of President go unfilled, the Vice President (so, Mike Pence) would then become Acting President. Note that the House must vote on the position of President "immediately"; this probably means that they can no longer elect a President after they go on their first recess after the election and the Presidency is recognized as vacant, so the Vice President accedes to the post by default. Pence would become President in this scenario even if he actively opposes it and lobbies House members to elect Trump.

In that scenario, couldn't Pence appoint Trump as VP and then resign, defeating any intransigent NeverTrumpers in the House? Even if there were enough of them in the House to suicide the party?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Thank you for your informative posts, Vosem.

I still doubt, when the chips are down, the real willingness of House Republicans to sabotage their own nominee's coronation. But I suppose this is one of those counterfactuals one will (probably) never be able to prove either way.