NC-HPU/SurveyUSA: Obama & Romney tied

[Tender Branson]

43-43 Obama/Romney

http://www2.journalnow.com/news/2012/aug/27/obama-romney-deadlocked-nc-according-hpu-poll-ar-2552122/

[MorningInAmerica]

This one doesn't appear to have been posted yet at the SurveyUSA site, so no crosstabs yet.

I would like to note that the article states this is a REGISTERED voter poll.

[MorningInAmerica]

http://acme.highpoint.edu/~mkifer/src/15xtab.pdf

Here are some grainy crosstabs. Romney is only getting 77% of the GOP vote in this poll. Bush got 96% of GOP in 2004 in NC, McCain got 95% in 2008.

Obama is getting 80% of Democrats. He got 90% of Dems in 2008, while Kerry got 84% of Dems in NC in 2004.

37D/33R/27I% sample.

[Lief 🗽]

Good to know that North Carolina is still a tied race. As long as Romney is fighting over this state, he's in trouble.

[tmthforu94]

Good to know that North Carolina is still a tied race. As long as Romney is fighting over this state, he's in trouble.

Similar with Obama in Michigan, though I have my doubts on the polling. There's a lot of close states at this point in the campaign - it will be interesting to see which states someone pulls away in.

[Vosem]

SurveyUSA frequently has funky crosstabs but good overall numbers; the key thing here is that this is a poll of registered voters. Nate Silver thinks the registered/likely gap will be unusually large this year. That Obama and Romney are tied among registered voters is not merely plausible but is probably the 'right' answer; it's just that that means is Romney is 2-5 points ahead among likely voters.

[Adam Griffin]

RV and only 86% committed? Meh.

But on the other hand: Obama tied in North Carolina in a D+4 sample? Not bad.

But on the other foot: a similar LV poll would probably have Romney up by 4.

[timothyinMD]

http://acme.highpoint.edu/~mkifer/src/15xtab.pdf

Here are some grainy crosstabs. Romney is only getting 77% of the GOP vote in this poll. Bush got 96% of GOP in 2004 in NC, McCain got 95% in 2008.

Obama is getting 80% of Democrats. He got 90% of Dems in 2008, while Kerry got 84% of Dems in NC in 2004.

37D/33R/27I% sample.

Well when the candidates are tied at 43 of course they're not getting all of their party.  If they were tied at 49 each it would be different