PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[President Johnson]

What about Shapiro? I think he's the Democrats' best candidate. Since he just got reelected as attorney general, he has nothing to lose.

[President Johnson]

Tom Wolf will support Shapiro.
https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/tom-wolf-pennsylvania-2022-senate-race-endorsement-20210715.html

As expected. This can only help as Wolf seems to be popular governor.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/houseofbuddy/status/1447628687986286595

Finally.

[President Johnson]

Tilt D with Mastriano being the Republican nominee.

Probably Tilt Democratic with either of the Republican clowncar. Shapiro is a strong candidate who has proven his electoral strengths.

[President Johnson]

If Shapiro wins this, I think there's a decent chance he'll end up on a Democratic presidential ticket at some point. He'd be a strong running mate for Kamala Harris or candidate for president himself in 2028 if reelected. He's not even 50 yet.

Would Shapiro appoint his successor for Attorney General then and this placeholder remains in office until the next regular election in 2024? Pennsylvania is the only state I know of that doesn't elect its governor and attorney general simultaneously.

[President Johnson]

A general thought on this: It's actually interesting that Republicans still tend to nominate extreme candidates in usual battleground states. The Democrats are more cautious in that regard for most of the time. Tom Wolf is admittedly a pretty liberal governor, but he's not an AOC-style progressive and still a millionaire businessman.

Sometimes I feel the media is playing a double standard here and extreme Republican candidates are much more normalized. It's certainly also a sign of how extreme the party has become.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1538890560328679426

This is hilarious for a nationalized governor race in a swing state. Seriously, the fact that Mastriano doesn’t even have $500,000 at this point signifies his campaign is not getting better and that he’s heading for a loss.

Yeah, I certainly hope this continues that way. Mastriano and Oz may be huge blunders for Republicans, blowing perhaps winnable races.

However, I won't get too excited until Shapiro and Fetterman are declared winners.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/letsgomathias/status/1540084673707220993

I dunno, is it just me or does the dude actually look like a neo nazi?

Lmao, thought about this as well. He certainly doesn't look like the guy I'd like to care of my kids.

[President Johnson]

I've noticed that Shapiro is still up with positive personal ads, and the DGA is up with an anti-Mastriano abortion spot.

That's the smart move at this point. No need for Shapiro to go negative right now. Define himself positively and let Mastriano's insanity speak for itself.

Based on the polls I'm seeing I disagree. He needs to make it clear this guy is a lunatic, the voters don't seem to know that yet

Why not try to chew gum and walk at the same time?

[President Johnson]

Q2 fundraising here will certainly be interesting.

For Q1, Shapiro raised $4.5M and had $16M COH. Mastriano raised $373K and had $1.1M COH

373k? Lmao.

[President Johnson]

official-

https://twitter.com/chwolfson/status/1556733915217502209

Not surprising, he's really aiming hard to become the God Emperor's replacement. Didn't DeSantis also fail to condemn Neo-Nazi rallies in Florida? Trump-critical Republicans that are left really shouldn't fall for his scam.

[President Johnson]

The guy literally has zero charisma, lmao. He just comes off like someone who was forced to give a scripted speech a throw a bunch of lame punches.

[President Johnson]

Yeah, you can definitely tell that the campaign apparatus for Mastriano is severely lacking in numerous departments. Not surprising though. Their campaign imagery also looks like something from the 90s, but that's also a very GOP thing

What would it take for Mastriano to win in spite of said deficiencies?

Probably a severe lack of Democratic turnout, especially in Philly and the suburbs, while Republicans turn out in full force. He would also have to make some inroads in the suburbs by focussing on actual bread and butter issues such as jobs and crime.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1570760664318099461

PAGOP candidates and being registered to vote in New Jersey--name a better duo.

New Jersey should keep their clowns.

[President Johnson]

Mastriano is a literal white supremacist and anti-Semite.

The funny thing is that he doesn't even bother to hide the slightest bit. The Republican Party anno 2022.

[President Johnson]

LOSER Mastriano, who will take away for freedoms and democracy, had a TINY CROWD in latest rally. ZERO ENTHUSIASM. Sad!

[President Johnson]

What keeps coming out about Mastriano keeps getting worse. What an absolute trainwreck this guy is.

[President Johnson]

Semi-related question to this race: What's the outlook for the Pennsylvania General Assembly after redistricting? Are Republicans expected to keep both chambers even if Shapiro pulls off a clear victory? Republicans controlled the legislative entirely since the 2010 election and many of Tom Wolf's proposed policies like a minimum wage increase or higher taxes for corporations/wealthy people were stonewalled by lawmakers. I guess nothing will change here?

[President Johnson]

Semi-related question to this race: What's the outlook for the Pennsylvania General Assembly after redistricting? Are Republicans expected to keep both chambers even if Shapiro pulls off a clear victory? Republicans controlled the legislative entirely since the 2010 election and many of Tom Wolf's proposed policies like a minimum wage increase or higher taxes for corporations/wealthy people were stonewalled by lawmakers. I guess nothing will change here?

For the state house, CNalysis has Republicans favored in 103 seats and Democrats favored in 98, with two tossups (one in Pittsburgh's North Hills and one in DelCo) - the former is open and the latter is held by an incumbent Republican.

I think the state house became considerably more favorable to Democrats in redistricting. For instance, there are now three safe D seats around Harrisburg and two around Lancaster, while the previous maps only had one each. 

Cervas drew the State House map and seemed to make small D friendly decisions to overcome Dems generally poor geography, and I also think population shifts generally favored Ds.

It's insane how large Rs majority was pre-2018

That was largely due extreme gerrymandering. I mean, Republicans lost the popular vote by ten in 2018 and still maintained a majority. This is absolutely insane.

[President Johnson]

Mastriano's only advertiser pulled out, he himself seems to be giving up, and SaintStan still has him winning in his TL lol

So the remaining co-conspirators jump off the sinking ship? Glorious to see!

[President Johnson]

Rhetorical question: Has Mastriano yet conceded? Or any reaction at all from him?

[President Johnson]

Luzerne County BOE voted to not certify its results. Despite having a 3-2 D membership, Schramm voted to abstain, citing that "he wants to know what happens if the vote is not certified."

https://twitter.com/chelseastrub/status/1597265703761240064

This is so ridiculous. Trump really destroyed the credibility of elections with a significant junk of the public because his own little ego could not handle a loss.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1610987623996338176

Fine, I guess?

Yeah, I think it's a very good move. Secretary of state also serves at the governor's pleasure. But I don't think the guy will act as a partisan hack in his position.

[President Johnson]

Josh Shapiro is officially the Governor of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania now.

https://twitter.com/GovernorShapiro/status/1615417771352793088

[President Johnson]

LOL

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1614651994395779072

I can give them a summary a free, don't have to waste a dime on a post-mortem: Mastriano and many other candidates just sucked. Perhaps nominate sane conservatives with a platform to improve people's life instead of fascists that still whine about 2020.

The problem runs deeper than that. They can't just nominate sane conservatives with a platform to improve people's lives, because that's not what most registered Republicans want. Republicans have spent decades carefully cultivating a base that consists of the dumbest people in the country and now they're stuck with it. Unless the primary elections get abolished completely, they're going to have to figure out how to trick their voters into worshipping sane people instead of crazy and stupid ones, but that's going to be tough.

Yeah, and even if primaries were abolished and sane conservative candidates get appointed by a party aparatus, these people at the base wouldn't feel represented. However, still hardly to deny that a lesser crazy Republican candidate would have done better than Mastriano.