Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[Hatman 🍁]

Actual percentages (for some reason Elections SK calculates %s as a pct of total votes cast rather than just valid votes)

NDP: 60.4% (+15.2)
SP: 31.2% (-17.1)
Lib: 4.4% (-0.7)
PC: 2.7%
Grn: 1.3% (-0.1)

Turnout: 35.7% (-14.4%)

Swing: 16.1% (NDP gain from SP) - bigger swing than in Meewasin! Also, this swing if applied province wide would result in a tie in the popular vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

We saw a big swing yesterday, but it wouldn't be enough to win the election for the NDP:



No rural ridings drop, and there are still a few urban holdouts for the Sask Party.

[Hatman 🍁]

We saw a big swing yesterday, but it wouldn't be enough to win the election for the NDP:



No rural ridings drop, and there are still a few urban holdouts for the Sask Party.

Was this a uniform swing? what numbers did you use?
Looking a lot more like 2003 though, your seeing the smaller cities start to swing NDP (The Battlefords, Moose Jaw. I was right in that Saskaton, Westview, Eastview and Churchill-Wildwoods go NDP. For the NDP to win low-hanging rural ridings, the swing is going to have to be closer to 20% then eh.

Yes, uniform swing.

Interestingly, the lowest hanging fruit rural riding for the NDP is Batoche, which hasn't gone NDP since 1995. It appears to have a high FN population, and less resource dependent as ridings in the NW like Meadow Lake which saw a huge swing to the SP in 2016.

[Hatman 🍁]

We saw a big swing yesterday, but it wouldn't be enough to win the election for the NDP:



No rural ridings drop, and there are still a few urban holdouts for the Sask Party.

Was this a uniform swing? what numbers did you use?
Looking a lot more like 2003 though, your seeing the smaller cities start to swing NDP (The Battlefords, Moose Jaw. I was right in that Saskaton, Westview, Eastview and Churchill-Wildwoods go NDP. For the NDP to win low-hanging rural ridings, the swing is going to have to be closer to 20% then eh.

Yes, uniform swing.

Interestingly, the lowest hanging fruit rural riding for the NDP is Batoche, which hasn't gone NDP since 1995. It appears to have a high FN population, and less resource dependent as ridings in the NW like Meadow Lake which saw a huge swing to the SP in 2016.

Another interesting one, going by the colour variants, is Last Mountain-Touchwood, north of Regina. Looks surprisingly competitive.

That's more to do with the fact that the PC leader (and former MLA) ran there in 2016 and won 10% of the vote. Unless he runs again, you can just add that 10% to the SP, making the riding uncompetative.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm, we did see a 6 point swing in the Markham-Thornhill by-election, and it is only about 1/3 Chinese. Agincourt is nearly half Chinese, and the same swing would put the Tories within 3 points of the Liberals there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Polls will not pick up on swings among ethnic communities, though. They don't respond to polls as much as the general public, and even if they did, you wouldn't see a big shift in province-wide polling.

[Hatman 🍁]

Running in Agincourt would be a bad idea; wrong part of Scarborough for him to win in.  Do you think one of the Windsor MPs will step down for him? I'm worried that might not go over so well.

[Hatman 🍁]

Outremont was more a Mulcair seat than NDP so I actually think there is a real risk it would flip to the Liberals.

Actually, Outremont, thanks to its "urban progressive" base, was the NDP's strongest QC seat over the Alexa/Layton years; and that was prime reasoning behind Mulcair's running there in the first place.  If it now seems "more Mulcair than NDP", it's thanks to the Justin Liberals repatriating the urban progressives--Mulcair "saved" Outremont in 2015 in much the same way that Justin "saved" Papineau in 2011.

This is correct. There really are no "NDP seats" in Quebec. Outremont is as close as you're going to get to one. As evidenced by the last two elections though, it definitely has a lower ceiling than other ridings in the province, due to being home to more habitual Liberal voting populations...

[Hatman 🍁]

My rundown of the by-election in Kamloops: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/09/kamloops-mayoral-and-council-by.html

For progressives, we should be hoping Nancy Bepple is elected to city council, but I am fairly certain Ken Christian (endorsed by two high profile Liberals) will win the mayoral race.

[Hatman 🍁]

Kamloops, mayor:

Ken Christian: 9274 (64%) - elected
Bill McQuarrie: 2661 (18%)
Stu Holland: 806 (6%)
Todd McLeod: 773 (5%)
Mike McKenzie: 518 (4%)
Glenn Hilke: 480 (3%)

Council

Kathy Sinclair: 3421 (12%) - elected
Ray Dhaliwal: 3292 (12%) - elected
Kevin Krueger: 3042 (11%)
Gerald Kenyon Watson: 2424 (9%)
Bill Sarai: 2182 (8%)
Leslie Lax: 2112 (8%)
Stephen Karpuk:1678 (6%)
Nancy Bepple: 1481 (5%)
13 others: 8194 (29%)

Turnout: 21% (down from 33% in 2014)

[Hatman 🍁]

Didn't write much, but here is my blog post about today's by-election: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/10/louis-hebert-by-election-today.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Not surprising, as the CAQ and the PLQ are essentially the same ideologically these days.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow the NDP got 1.35%?  This experiment was a bad idea.  Only way it will work is if Tom Mulcair himself is leader. But I guess the Quebec Conservatives are also fringe...

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow the NDP got 1.35%?  This experiment was a bad idea.  Only way it will work is if Tom Mulcair himself is leader. But I guess the Quebec Conservatives are also fringe...

 Surprised the Conservatives though did better than the NDP as the CAQ is largely a conservative party philosophically.  It seems kind of like the PCs in Saskatchewan as opposed to the Saskatchewan Party.  By contrast while the PQ and QS are both social democratic parties, the NDP is a federalist social democratic one whereas those two are both separatists.  What is though lacking although not sure there is a market for it is a right wing separatist party.

The PQ is both a right-wing and a left-wing separatist party.

Anyway, this is not the riding in which to find left-wing federalists.

(On a related note, it is really confusing that the federal and provincial Louis-Hebert ridings are in totally different parts of Quebec. If you're going to name ridings after people, at least try to make them be in the same place!)

They are both in Quebec City, and overlap.. though I loathe ridings named for people. Maybe you're thinking of Papineau?

[Hatman 🍁]

FWIW Louis Hebert was once the PQ's strongest seat in the Quebec City area. The almost won it in 1973 and the won it by massive majorities in 1976 and 1981 when it was represented by Claude Morin - one of Levesque's closest confidantes.

Then Louis-Hébert was much more to the east, too.

Yeah, not the same riding at all. Jean-Talon covers what was then Louis-Hebert. Though, Jean-Talon is a fairly safe Liberal seat right now. Weird.

[Hatman 🍁]

FWIW Louis Hebert was once the PQ's strongest seat in the Quebec City area. The almost won it in 1973 and the won it by massive majorities in 1976 and 1981 when it was represented by Claude Morin - one of Levesque's closest confidantes.

Then Louis-Hébert was much more to the east, too.

Yeah, not the same riding at all. Jean-Talon covers what was then Louis-Hebert. Though, Jean-Talon is a fairly safe Liberal seat right now. Weird.

Jean-Talon also includes very wealthy Sillery.

That must be the difference, because Louis-Hebert didn't include Sillery back then (still doesn't, of course).

[Hatman 🍁]

FWIW Louis Hebert was once the PQ's strongest seat in the Quebec City area. The almost won it in 1973 and the won it by massive majorities in 1976 and 1981 when it was represented by Claude Morin - one of Levesque's closest confidantes.

Then Louis-Hébert was much more to the east, too.

Yeah, not the same riding at all. Jean-Talon covers what was then Louis-Hebert. Though, Jean-Talon is a fairly safe Liberal seat right now. Weird.

I'm not so sure about that. Jean Talon provincial riding has existed since 1970 and Louis-Hebert has always been largely the suburb of Ste. Foy

Different parts of Ste-Foy. Louis-Hebert of 1976 only shares a small part of territory as today's Louis-Hebert:

[Hatman 🍁]

Steve Kent (MHA for Mount Pearl North) has resigned. One of the few PC held seats in the province, so should be an easy hold for the Tories.

[Hatman 🍁]

Talk about a massive vote split. NPA candidate wins with 28% of the vote. All the other major candidates are on the left, if you count the Greens as being on the left.

[Hatman 🍁]

Bad night for both the main parties.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, I expect the Liberals will win too. Probably won't be that close either.

I suspect the Tories will win Roberval, but most of the Lac-Saint-Jean Ouest (former county & Couillard's riding) will go Liberal, while Lac-Saint-Jean Est will go BQ. How well the BQ does depends on how well they can GOTV in Alma.

[Hatman 🍁]

Campbellton went PC in 2010, so I wouldn't rule out a PC win. Northern New Brunswick can be quite schizophrenic in its voting patterns.

[Hatman 🍁]

Melfort MLA Kevin Phillips has died.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also ask Theresa May.

If there's an election next year, the NDP will win.

[Hatman 🍁]

Calgary-Lougheed by-election set for December 14.