Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[Hatman 🍁]

Point Douglas - Votes by Voting Area:

http://www.electionsmanitoba.ca/en/Results/ResultsByVA/131

CBC Story:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winnipeg-point-douglas-byelection-map-1.4164541

Looks like the Filipino areas voted Liberal, while the Aboriginal areas voted NDP. No surprise, really.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, it looks like there is more of a correlation with the 2015 federal election result than the 2016 provincial election. The NDP's best areas were North Point Douglas and Lord Selkirk Park, just like in the federal election. Meanwhile, their best poll from 2016 went Liberal!

[Hatman 🍁]

The Conservative federal MP, Denis Lebel, will retire this summer.  By-election to come in Lac-Saint-Jean.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201706/18/01-5108772-denis-lebel-tire-sa-reverence.php

With the NDP way down in Quebec, liberals may have a chance for a pickup.

Tough call at this point. It's very pro-sovereignty area of the province, but it is also a riding that is not that committed to voting for pro-sovereignty parties.

- The Liberals have not won it since 1980, but a lot of ridings in Quebec had the distinction before 2015. Provincially, they hold the western half of the riding (Roberval), but that's only because it's the Premier's seat.
- This isn't exactly a traditional Conservative seat. They did do well in 2006, which helped them pick the seat up in a by-election in 2007. Provincially though, the CAQ/ADQ has no history in this part of Quebec.
- This could've been an NDP target once upon a time. The 2015 redistribution added Alma to the district, which was swept by the NDP in 2011 (and again in 2015!).
- The eastern half of this riding has been represented by the PQ since 1976.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hébert: Couillard wants Lebel to run for him, status TBD. By-election will be a 4-way race, presumably around the time Dippers choose a new leader.

Lebel would have a hard time winning for the PLQ in Lac-Saint-Jean, and he can't run in Roberval, as that's Couillard's seat. He'd be given a safe seat somewhere.

[Hatman 🍁]

I did a post mortem analysis of the Point Douglas by-election, if anyone is interested: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/06/point-doulgas-by-election-post-mortem.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Campeau won the seat by just 3 points last time, it is an easy NDP pick up.

[Hatman 🍁]

Outremont: Mulcair might resign after his successor is elected. Easy Grit gain, needless to say.

While I don't doubt the Liberals would be heavily favoured, the NDP will really try to target the seat. Don't forget, even before Mulcair was elected it was the NDP's best riding in Quebec. I'd wait to see where the polls are when the time comes before making any brash predictions.

[Hatman 🍁]

Toronto: Pam McConnell has died.

I think we're beyond the point where they will hold a by-election, they will just appoint someone.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm, I wonder how much of that 2007 by-election win was a result of the Conservatives having just come to power? Could bode well for the Liberals, if the area does truly want to go for whoever is in the government.

[Hatman 🍁]

Because I know you guys care very much, here are the results of the Nanaimo by-election

Sheryl Armstrong: 3,611 (48.9%)
Sacia Burton: 858 (11.6%)
All others: 2,921 (39.5%)

Turnout: 11.0%

Armstrong is a former RCMP officer.

[Hatman 🍁]

Geoff Meggs, VV councillor in Vancouver was appointed as Horgan's Chief of Staff on Tuesday. There will be a by-election in October. Because there are no wards, it will be a city-wide race, so it might be seen as a referendum on the current administration.

[Hatman 🍁]

If Ralph Goodale was nominated as the next Lieutenant Governor of Saskatchewan, which party would win the by-election? Would the Liberals lose their only seat in the province or would they manage to hold on? A lot of provincial NDP voters in the riding would probably revert back to voting for the federal party once Goodale is gone.

Is there speculation of this?

Back before Trudeau, I think the conventional wisdom was that it would become an NDP seat, but I think right now the Liberals would probably win it.

[Hatman 🍁]

By-Election of Note:

Ritchot (RM South of Winnipeg) By-Election was held tonight. The by-elections were held after Mayor Jackie Hunt and two councillors, Jeannot Robert and Ron Mamchuk, resigned. This after allegations two other councillors, Ernie Dumaine and Corrine Webb, verbally attacked the mayor at a meeting over an outdoor hockey rink. All 5 members ran to reclaim their seat:

Results:
Mayor: Chris Ewen, turnout 39%
Ward 1: Shane Pelletier, turnout 49%
Ward 2: Ron Mamchuk (re-elected), turnout 51%
Ward 3: Jeannot Robert (acclaimed)
Ward 4: Janine Boulanger, turnout 31%

http://www.ritchot.com/main.aspx?CategoryCode=BE0B3259-5572-4DEA-9D08-6072C1F49D90&pageCode=BB92AA54-78AB-4621-B245-727A03D7237F

The municipality has a fairly large Francophone population, but interestingly none of the wards appear to have a Francophone majority.

Also interestingly, Ewen only won one ward and didn't even with the advance vote! But his margins were so high is Ward 1, that he was able to win the election.  Jackie Hunt the incumbent mayor won 2 wards (2 & 3) which appear to be more Francophone than most of the RM, while 3rd place candidate Gene Whitney won ward 4.

Also interestingly for rural Manitoba, the RM voted for the Liberals back in 2015, but provincially went PC last year.

[Hatman 🍁]

In addition to resigning as BC Liberal leader, Christy Clark will also be resigning her seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

Few if any safer Grit seats.

Why do you always make these wild proclamations? Your first prediction for the Soo by-election was that it would be a Liberal-NDP race for pete's sake.

Toronto Centre used to vote for the Tories, and with Kathleen Wynne being so unpopular, in a by-election scenario I could see a lot of the voters switching to them, and if the NDP targets, we could see a 3 way race. There have been two by-elections in recent history, in 2010 the NDP won 33% (provincial) and in 2013 the NDP won 36% (federal).

If there is no by-election, then the new Toronto Centre riding will be a pure toss up. The redistributed federal results from 2011 had the Liberals win the riding by just three points. Safe seat indeed!  

[Hatman 🍁]

Mea culpa, Hatman. Didn't know about redistribution. In related news, Tories polling at 50% (!!!) in 416?

No worries; I can be cranky in the morning.

Speaking of the new Toronto Centre riding, I don't think the Tories can win it without Rosedale, so it will be a two-way fight.

[Hatman 🍁]

Saskatoon Fairview by-election set for Sept 7.

[Hatman 🍁]

Judy Foote resigning by end of year.

I think it's safe to say the Liberals will hold on to this one. I think it was their best seat in 2015.

[Hatman 🍁]

Louis-Hebert provincial by-election called for October 2.

Apparently the NPDQ will be contesting it! Will be interesting to see how well they do. For comparison, the federal NDP got about ~10% in 2008, ~40% in 2011 and ~20% in 2015.

[Hatman 🍁]

Louis-Hebert provincial by-election called for October 2.

Apparently the NPDQ will be contesting it! Will be interesting to see how well they do. For comparison, the federal NDP got about ~10% in 2008, ~40% in 2011 and ~20% in 2015.

They will be running former MP Denis Blanchette, who is the current president of the NPDQ.

[Hatman 🍁]

My profile of today's by-election: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/09/saskatoon-fairview-by-election-preview.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, the NDP will win it.  The question is, by how much? My guess is 53-42.

[Hatman 🍁]

One thing I neglected to mention in my blog post was how good the SP and the Tories are in the advance vote. I think the NDP actually won the election day vote in 2016.

[Hatman 🍁]

CBC says there are 1888 advance ballots to count.

[Hatman 🍁]

I may be from Ontario, but I do not think Kindersley will even be close. The NDP finished third in 2016.