Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[Hatman 🍁]

Some questions:
I thought there were talks of an ON-QS merger? And yet they're in third?
I also thought the CAQ was polling in first place in province wide polling? I know Gouin isn't their best area, but they're in danger of finishing fifth.

[Hatman 🍁]

QS voted to have talks of merge with QS yes. The PQ riding president chose to vote ON since the QS agreement is not happening so PQ voters might not vote QS or stay home or do as he is doing and vote ON.

CAQ is weak in Montreal and especially in a leftist area so I don't think it's a surprise if they do badly.

I know, but they are lower than what they got in the last election. Though this is very common in by-elections for "third parties" to do poorly.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final results
QS: 69.2% (+18.2%)
PLQ: 8.9% (-8.9%)
ON: 7.9% (+6.7%)
CAQ: 6.7% (-2.0%)
PVQ: 4.6%
Others: 2.7%

Turnout 32.7%

2 Party Swing: 13.6% (PLQ to QS)

[Hatman 🍁]

Ontarians, will Dippers or Tories win the Soo tomorrow? I assume Dippers.

I haven't heard any rumblings from NDP circles, so I suspect silence means they don't think they'll win it.

Not sure if the Liberal rebounding is true or not, but they're making a bunch of left wing promises; not sure if any of it has to do with the by-election, but perhaps they think they have an outside shot of winning it?

Sault Ste. Marie is one of those ridings where individual candidacy matters a lot, so you can't just extrapolate from past election results.

[Hatman 🍁]

Rebounding in Kouvalis' poll or the riding? Forum still shows the usual Tory lead.

The province-wide poll by Campaign Research.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sault Ste Marie, federally, was one of the only ridings (if not the only?) where an NDP incumbent lost during the big orange wave of Jack Layton that put them into opposition.  Trends, like was mentioned previously, don't really matter here.  I do hear that the NDP candidate is the most well liked.

It was not the only one, the NDP also lost Elmwood-Transcona in 2011.

[Hatman 🍁]

Honesty I have no clue what'll happen there.  The Soo often defies the general trend.

Yup, even provincially... back in 95, when the ONDP got crushed, SSM saw an increase in vote for the ONDP.
Fingers crossed on an ONDP win!

And yet, in 1990 when the ONDP formed government, they had a large decrease in vote share!

[Hatman 🍁]

Handy chart:

[Hatman 🍁]

Sad! The NDP has a fairly low ceiling, clearly. Would've needed the Liberals to do a bit better to bring the Tories down.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sad! The NDP has a fairly low ceiling, clearly. Would've needed the Liberals to do a bit better to bring the Tories down.

Not really.  More that voters chose to "back a winner" (i.e. the presumption that the PCs will win the next election.

Right, but the NDP has rarely ever hit 40% in this riding. There is definitely a ceiling.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sure, the NDP has cracked 40% before, but that was with Tony Martin on the ballot, and his popularity began to wane in the 2000s. I don't think the NDP can get to those numbers any more in the Soo.

One thing to keep in mind about Northern Ontario is that the cities are actually far more right wing than the rural areas (at least economically), so while the NDP can win in areas like Kenora, Algoma, Nickel Belt, Timiskaming and Cochrane, it will have trouble in Sudbury, the Soo and Thunder Bay. There is a base in those cities, but they can only win with the right vote splits.

One of the key issues the NDP will have to deal with is bridging the populist North with the bobo ridings in southern Ontario, something they are now having trouble with. Jack Layton was able to do it, but Horwath and Mulcair could not.

[Hatman 🍁]

Speaking of candidate strengths, I'm not sure how much this was discussed,  but Krmpotich and Romano both represented the same ward on city council, so they have "run against" each other in the past, even though it was a 2 person seat. The 2014 result was:

Krmpotich: 2085
Romano: 1643
Losing candidates: 2681

Krmpotich was one of the incumbents, while Romano wasn't, which may have helped him.

It will be interesting to see who won their ward last night. Looking at the 2008 and 2011 federal poll maps, it looks like the ward (which covers the west part of the city) is pretty evenly split between NDP supporters and Tories.

[Hatman 🍁]

Let's not lose sight of the elephant in the room. In 2014 Sault Ste. Marie was the second safest Ontario Liberal seat in the entire province! They took 59% of the vote there. Their vote crashed by 36 points to just 23% - if that swing were replicated across the province the Liberals would be reduced to just one seat!

Final results Sault Ste Marie

Ross Romano PC 10,391 40.30% (+27.91%)
Joe Krmpotich NDP 8535 33.10% (+7.63%)
Debbie Amarosa Liberal 5919 22.96% (-35.57)
Kara Flannigan Green 512 1.99% (-1.24%)
Above Znoneofthe None of the above party 310 1.20%
Gene Balfour Libertarian  71 0.28% (-0.10%)
John Turmel Pauper 47 0.18%

Turnout 43.93%
https://www3.elections.on.ca/RealTimeResults/ElectoralDistrict/en

Irrelevant spin. I've stated numerous times that Sault Ste. Marie is a very different riding from the rest of the province, and therefore that ~32% swing will not be replicated across the province.

[Hatman 🍁]

One thing to keep in mind about Northern Ontario is that the cities are actually far more right wing than the rural areas (at least economically), so while the NDP can win in areas like Kenora, Algoma, Nickel Belt, Timiskaming and Cochrane, it will have trouble in Sudbury, the Soo and Thunder Bay. There is a base in those cities, but they can only win with the right vote splits.

One of the key issues the NDP will have to deal with is bridging the populist North with the bobo ridings in southern Ontario, something they are now having trouble with. Jack Layton was able to do it, but Horwath and Mulcair could not.

Citywise, don't forget Timmins--though there, the "bourgeois tendencies" have tended to be counteracted by the rest of whatever riding it's in.

And speaking of Timmins, federal NDP leadership contender Charlie Angus practically personifies the populist North/bobo South bridge idea.

Timmins is another good example for sure. And good point about Angus, which is why he'd be a pretty good leader (if he improves his French).

Sault Ste. Marie is the kind of place that would have swung to Trump big time if it were in the US.

What??? If anything the more rural NDP ridings in the north would be more likely to swing to Trump.

[Hatman 🍁]

further evidence that most of the vote switching in the Soo is anti-NDP. Reliably NDP west end went NDP, while the normally Liberal east end went Tory. 

Interestingly, the far west end (Ward 6) went PC. That's the ward that both the NDP and PC candidate represented on council.

[Hatman 🍁]

further evidence that most of the vote switching in the Soo is anti-NDP. Reliably NDP west end went NDP, while the normally Liberal east end went Tory. 

Interestingly, the far west end (Ward 6) went PC. That's the ward that both the NDP and PC candidate represented on council.

Soo what?  (sorry)

Any thoughts aboot the Point Douglas by-election?

I may or may not do a write up on it tomorrow.  But, it should be an easy NDP hold. Potentially a future Liberal target in the distant future, but they're too much in disarray on the provincial level.

[Hatman 🍁]

further evidence that most of the vote switching in the Soo is anti-NDP. Reliably NDP west end went NDP, while the normally Liberal east end went Tory. 

Interestingly, the far west end (Ward 6) went PC. That's the ward that both the NDP and PC candidate represented on council.

Soo what?  (sorry)

Any thoughts aboot the Point Douglas by-election?

I may or may not do a write up on it tomorrow.  But, it should be an easy NDP hold. Potentially a future Liberal target in the distant future, but they're too much in disarray on the provincial level.

Thanks.

I liked my joke about the Soo. I'm sure nobody has ever come up with that before! 

oh wow, I hadn't even noticed!

[Hatman 🍁]

I have none.  What is the Poe Lock?

(hey, I have personal ethnic licence ;-) )

As for the Soo, the far west is rural-dominated, right?

You guys are dating yourselves with these All in the Family references!

Anyways, geographically the far west is 'dominated' by a lot of farms, but I'd imagine most of the population is urban.

[Hatman 🍁]

So I did get some time today to do a write up on my blog

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/06/point-douglas-by-election-preview.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Is this the kind of thing people would be interested in me doing more of in the future?

[Hatman 🍁]

Even with just a few polls in, it's obvious the NDP has won it. Looking at a worse result than in 2016 though, but still too early to determine.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like they probably won't break 50% Not a good result.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it will make for a more interesting map.

[Hatman 🍁]

With all polls reporting:

NDP: 44.3% (-13.5)
Lib: 29.1% (+9.6)
PC: 16.2% (-0.3)
MP: 5.2%
Grn: 4.2% (-0.8)
Comm: 0.8% (-0.3)

Turnout: 32.3% (-10.2)

2 party avg. swing: 11.5% NDP to Liberal

[Hatman 🍁]

What is the Nanaimo municipal council election for?  We're well more than half way through the 4 year mandate of councils, so I understand they don't have to hold a by-election.

City council. Cllr Wendy Pratt resigned in April in connection to some sort of scandal involving the city council.

We're more than a year away from the next municipal elections, so I fully support them having a by-election.

There are 13 candidates running.  Profiles: https://www.ournanaimo.com/index.php/candidate-bios/