Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Хahar 🤔]

Are they even trying to run a full slate?

No. They are selectively holding back from running candidates in ridings where the NDP has a chance of beating PC/Wildrose. This also held for the Alberta Party, at least until they decided to run a candidate in Calgary-Elbow where their leader is running. The Liberal ranks in rural Alberta are also rather empty right now.

If they don't want to be a real party, why are they running any candidates at all?

[Хahar 🤔]

I didn't want to consider the possibility at the beginning of the campaign because I figured I'd just end up disappointed, but now it looks like the NDP has a real chance of winning and may even be favored. How would an NDP victory affect the coming federal campaign? Would the NDP see a boost after toppling a longstanding government in the most conservative province? Would it have any affect on Trudeau?

In general, the NDP holding government at the provincial level tends to hurt the party in that province at the federal level. In 2011, the two provinces where the NDP did not improve on their 2008 vote share were Manitoba and Nova Scotia, the two provinces with NDP governments. That said, the federal election may be too close to this election for people to vote against the federal NDP.

[Хahar 🤔]

In a scenario where the Liberals are polling 8%, it seems likelier that the Liberal share of the vote will actually be 4% than it is that Liberal candidates will poll 16% in the ridings that they contest.

[Хahar 🤔]

Coalition governments are not something that is done in Canada, with almost no exceptions. If a party has a plurality in the legislature, that party will form government. Furthermore, allying with the PCs would destroy whatever credibility Wildrose might have, given their anti-establishment message.

[Хahar 🤔]

Coalition governments are not something that is done in Canada, with almost no exceptions. If a party has a plurality in the legislature, that party will form government. Furthermore, allying with the PCs would destroy whatever credibility Wildrose might have, given their anti-establishment message.

Not true in 1999 the Saskatchewan NDP formed a coalition with the Saskatchewan Liberals - it lasted a full four years and no one seemed to mind.

I said almost no exceptions, not no exceptions whatsoever. Saskatchewan in 1999 was obviously an anomalous case. It is also not really relevant to the question asked, since the NDP was the largest party, and merely formed a coalition government rather than forming a minority government. In any case, the Saskatchewan Liberal Party hasn't won a seat since 1999, so I would imagine that that is not an example that either the PCs or Wildrose are jumping to emulate.

A better example would be Ontario in 1985, but that was also highly anomalous, and its purpose was to dislodge a long-serving government, not to keep it in office.

[Хahar 🤔]

The fact is "hung parliaments "are relatively rare in Canada to begin with - so to say that coalition government is rare is kind of beside the point

This is...not true at all? I can't think of another Western country that uses single-member districts where it is more common for legislatures not to have a majority party than Canada. It was very recently that three consecutive federal elections resulted in no party winning a majority. Lester Pearson never had a majority in the Commons during his tenure as Prime Minister. Minority governments aren't quite as common in provincial legislatures, but they have happened in almost every province. If you say that they're "relatively rare", I really have to question what you're talking about. Canada has plenty of precedent for elections in which no party wins a majority. I can't understand why you're acting like it would be something novel.

[Хahar 🤔]

Because I assume other people are interested, a review of what's happened in the ridings Wildrose won in 2012:

Airdrie: Rob Anderson won (after defecting from PCs in 2010), defected to PCs in 2014, did not seek PC nomination, Wildrose hold with new candidate
Calgary-Fish Creek: Heather Forsyth won (after defecting from PCs in 2010), did not seek Wildrose nomination, PC gain with new candidate
Calgary-Shaw: Jeff Wilson won, defected to PCs in 2014, won PC nomination, defeated in general election, NDP gain
Cardston-Taber-Warner: Gary Bikman won, defected to PCs in 2014, failed to receive PC nomination, Wildrose hold with new candidate
Chestermere-Rocky View: Bruce McAllister won, defected to PCs in 2014, won PC nomination, defeated in general election, Wildrose hold with new candidate
Cypress-Medicine Hat: Drew Barnes won, received Wildrose nomination, won in general election, Wildrose hold with same candidate
Drumheller-Stettler: Rick Strankman won, received Wildrose nomination, won in general election, Wildrose hold with same candidate
Highwood: Danielle Smith won, defected to PCs in 2014, failed to receive PC nomination, Wildrose hold with new candidate
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake: Kerry Towle won, defected to PCs in 2014, won PC nomination, defeated in general election, Wildrose hold with new candidate
Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills: Shayne Saskiw won, did not seek reelection, Wildrose hold with new candidate
Lacombe-Ponoka: Rod Fox won, defected to PCs in 2014, failed to receive PC nomination, Wildrose hold with new candidate
Little Bow: Ian Donovan won, defected to PCs in 2014, won PC nomination, defeated in general election, Wildrose hold with new candidate
Livingstone-Macleod: Pat Stier won, received Wildrose nomination, won in general election, Wildrose hold with same candidate
Medicine Hat: Blake Pedersen won, defected to PCs in 2014, won PC nomination, defeated in general election, NDP gain
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills: Bruce Rowe won, defected to PCs in 2014, did not seek PC nomination, Wildrose hold with new candidate
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre: Joe Anglin won, left Wildrose in 2014, failed to receive PC nomination, defeated in general election as independent, Wildrose hold with new candidate
Strathmore-Brooks: Jason Hale won, defected to PCs in 2014, did not seek PC nomination, Wildrose hold with new candidate

Total:
Wildrose hold: 14 (11 with new candidate, 3 with same candidate)
NDP gain: 2
PC gain: 1 (1 with new candidate, 0 with same candidate)

[Хahar 🤔]

I put together an Excel spreadsheet of IRV results using the preferences here: http://mainstreetzone.mainstreettechno.netdna-cdn.com/mainstreet/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Mainstreet-Alberta-Final-April-29.pdf

I'll post the results and explain the model when I have some time.