California by city

[mileslunn]

I've noticed there have been threads for various counties posting California results by city, so thought until state combines them, best to put them in one election. 

Alameda County has following so using municipal and maps if anyone is willing to number crunch would be great.  I can work on it but kind of tough with spreadsheet.

https://www.acvote.org/election-information/elections?id=241#

[mileslunn]

Yeah, I've been fascinated by the SoCal results but I don't know whether to continue posting IE results in the OC thread, create a seperate one ala Ventura or in this megathread

  A megathread for all counties would be great as easy location.  At first made sense separately but as more come in best to consolidate.

[mileslunn]

Tried doing Monterey County and could get the precincts matched for all those with mayoral elections, but not those without (matched mayoral to presidential) so wondering if that one can be done.  I could also work on Alameda County as that one not too hard to do.

[mileslunn]

Anyone have results for Tulare County?

Give me less than a half hour and I'll have them for you.

Tulare County, CA results (by city)

   Biden   Trump           (Swing to or from Democratic compared to 2016)
Dinuba   58.32%   38.31%   -5.91%
Exeter   33.60%   63.44%   1.62%
Farmersville   62.31%   33.84%   -9.15%
Lindsay   65.00%   31.95%   -12.72%
Porterville   48.19%   48.51%   -1.91%
Tulare   42.98%   53.69%   0.35%
Visalia   43.26%   53.07%   5.31%
Woodlake   65.97%   30.41%   -8.58%
Unincorporated   40.89%   56.17%   1.54%

Looks like Biden won the most heavily Hispanic communities but at same time as we are seeing nationally Trump saw favorable swing in all those whereas the whiter ones swung towards Biden, but Trump still won.  When I say whiter I mean more mixed as pretty much all communities have sizeable Hispanic population here, but some are over 80% Hispanic.

[mileslunn]

Monterey County, CA results (by city)
                               Biden     Trump         (Swing to or from Democratic compared to 2016)
Carmel-By-The-Sea   68.64%   29.65%   5.78%
Del Rey Oaks   66.45%   31.26%   -1.30%
Gonzales   74.61%   23.23%   -12.06%
Greenfield   78.98%   18.55%   -5.63%
King   66.81%   30.51%   -8.50%
Marina   69.94%   27.28%   1.50%
Monterey   72.84%   24.79%   3.23%
Pacific Grove   76.39%   21.63%   5.38%
Salinas   72.53%   25.39%   -3.35%
Sand City   62.50%   33.50%   -2.41%
Seaside   73.21%   24.10%   -1.50%
Soledad   75.69%   21.97%   -12.07%

I know its unincorporated but curious what Carmel Valley Village was as well as Del Monte Forest (where Pebble Beach is located) if you know.

[mileslunn]

Sacramento County would be interesting.  I gather Trump won Citrus Heights and unincorporated while Biden everything else so interesting to see that one.  Marin and Santa Cruz counties I am assuming are all Biden blowouts.

[mileslunn]

Sacramento County would be interesting.  I gather Trump won Citrus Heights and unincorporated while Biden everything else so interesting to see that one.  Marin and Santa Cruz counties I am assuming are all Biden blowouts.

Here are the official results for Sacramento County. I didn't include the swings since write-in votes were not made available by city in 2016 (and there were a lot here; write-ins made up 1.72% of the final countywide vote in 2016), so take the 2016 results with a grain of salt. Write-ins ARE, however, included in the 2020 final percentages.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY
Citrus Heights
2016: Trump 50.56% — Clinton 42.12% = R+ 08.44
2020: Trump 50.89% — Biden 46.19% = R+ 04.70

Elk Grove
2016: Clinton 60.69% — Trump 33.49% = D+ 27.20
2020: Biden 62.50% — Trump 35.42% = D+ 27.08

Folsom
2016: Clinton 46.59% — Trump 46.09% = D+ 00.50
2020: Biden 52.17% — Trump 45.25% = D+ 06.92

Galt
2016: Trump 50.44% — Clinton 42.76% = R+ 07.68
2020: Trump 53.17% — Biden 44.02% = R+ 09.15

Isleton
2016: Clinton 55.29% — Trump 37.25% = D+ 18.04
2020: Biden 49.53% — Trump 47.04% = D+ 02.49

Rancho Cordova
2016: Clinton 53.98% — Trump 38.31% = D+ 15.67
2020: Biden 56.17% — Trump 41.12% = D+ 15.05

Sacramento
2016: Clinton 73.82% — Trump 20.01% = D+ 53.81
2020: Biden 75.09% — Trump 22.44% = D+ 52.65

To calculate for another thread what was Sacramento county excluding Sacramento?

[mileslunn]

It seems like Biden gained the most ground in the southern beach cities and Palos Verdes peninsula, saw some gain in the San Gabriel area and by the Ventura border, but seems to have actually lost ground in Beverly Hills, Santa Monica, and the Valley out of the affluent parts of LA County. Is there any explanation for these swings?

As far as I can tell, BH is full of Persian Jews who swung to Trump like most Jews nationally. I think this pattern will probably also be seen in Great Neck where many of this demographic reside. As for Santa Monica, Calabasas, and Hidden Hills, I feel as though the wealthy in these areas generally work in entertainment (along with those in BH), and the stay-at-home orders motivated their vote against Democrats. It seems this theory somewhat holds in Malibu as well, which is another spot for people like this, but less so given its distant location from the entertainment centers of LA County.

Is this a full explanation, though? Or is there something else that explains these divided swings that aren't as uniform as those Hillary got?

Biden also did say that he would raise taxes on the wealthy which is really something that Clinton never really said so that could explain some of the difference along with quarantine orders. Malibu is affluent, but is more environmentally conscious that other wealthy areas.

Biden's tax plan might help rich in California as many Democrats want to scrap SALT cap of 10K as Trump's tax cuts actually cut taxes for rich in red states, but raised them in most blue states.

[mileslunn]

It's interesting how "compressed" the results are despite Biden getting over 70% in LA County, with very few cities being above the 80% mark for Biden and none above 90%.

That one really surprised me. At the very least, you'd expect Biden to crack 90% in West Hollywood. Must be the Russian community.

..there's a Russian community in WeHo? Interesting. Wonder how many of the gays there have TrumPutin fantasies, ha. Hillary only cracked >90% in Compton and Inglewood in LA County in 2016.

Speaking of Compton, I see where somebody has already updated their Wikipedia page:
"Compton is one of the most consistently Democratic cities in California's political history. From 1976-2016, no Democrat received less than 90% of the vote in a presidential election. In 2020, Joe Biden won Compton with 86.58% of the vote, the worst showing for a Democratic nominee since George McGovern."

That's upsetting but if winning with 86.58% of the vote is the worst showing, I'd say that's nothing to be ashamed of.

Compton's demographics have also changed.  Through most of its history, it was predominately African-American, now Hispanics are the majority.  Hispanics favor Democrats but not by same lopsided margin as African-Americans do so once African-Americans became a minority it was unlikely that level of support would hold for Democrats.

[mileslunn]

San Diego county is now up so wonder if anyone would do that one.  I can get the 2020 data and if someone has 2016 could use for comparison.

[mileslunn]

San Diego county is now up so wonder if anyone would do that one.  I can get the 2020 data and if someone has 2016 could use for comparison.

I have the data (with write-ins, of course) for 2016 (and 2012, and 2008) for San Diego County if and when you need it, I'd be happy to pass it along to you for comparisons.

No Problem I will in the next day post the 2020 results and you can supply the comparisons.

[mileslunn]

Here is San Diego County for 2020.  Biden My Time can provide the comparisons from 2016.

San Diego: Biden 68.5% - Trump 29.1% = D+39.4

Oceanside: Biden 55.86 - Trump 41.46 = D+14.4

Carlsbad: Biden 57.75 - Trump 40.19 = D+17.56

Encinitas: Biden 66.89 - Trump 30.89 = D+36

Solana Beach: Biden 65.19 - Trump 32.50 = D+32.69

Del Mar: Biden 63.51 - Trump 34.23 = D+29.28

Vista: Biden 57.29 - Trump 40.03 = D+17.26

San Marcos: Biden 57.25 - Trump 40.40 = D+16.85

Coronado: Biden 52.57 - Trump 45.31 = D+7.26

Imperial Beach: Biden 57.24 - Trump 39.53 = D+17.71

Escondido: Biden 55.26 - Trump 42.17 = D+13.09

Poway:  Biden 51 - Trump 46.41 = D+4.59

Santee: Trump 54.41 - Biden 43.04 = R+11.37

El Cajon: Trump 50.67 - Biden 46.99 = R+3.68

La Mesa: Biden 63.34 - Trump 34.01 = D+29.33

Lemon Grove: Biden 64.71 - Trump 32.78 = D+31.93

National City: Biden 66.78 - Trump 31.04 = D+35.74

Chula Vista:  Biden 64.6 - Trump 33.45 = D+31.15

So only Santee and El Cajon voted for Trump which is quite a change as San Diego County used to traditionally be a red county, even Bob Dole in 1996 won it.  That being said a lot of Trump's support was in the unincorporated parts so wonder if he won that overall?

[mileslunn]

Fascinating to see Coronado finally flip, although it was essentially a foregone conclusion between its 2016 results and Trump's relationship to the military. I would be curious to see results for the unincorporated areas of the county and a comparison between the presidential topline and the results in CA-50 (Issa won Congressional zombification by eight points even).

As someone who was born in San Diego, I never knew Coronado had been republican lol

It is right near military base and in past military generally went heavily GOP.  Still many do as generally GOP tends to be for more funding and they tend to lean conservative, but I suspect Trump's temperament as well him calling them suckers and losers probably led to him doing much worse with military than GOP normally does.

[mileslunn]

And when you have a chance no rush, Solano County.  Also Alpine, Mono, and Inyo counties which I suspect are pretty easy.

[mileslunn]

Emeryville I have following

Biden 90.12% - Trump 7.43% = D+82.69

[mileslunn]

Wondering which counties still have not given precinct breakdowns and also when will California post results by city/town as I was told in 2016 it was March so wonder if it will take that long or be up sooner.

[mileslunn]

Seem to be getting earlier so probably some time in late February if trend continues.

[mileslunn]

Here is Tehama County so if anybody can calculate or give which precincts are in which city, I can calculate this https://www.co.tehama.ca.us/images/images/Elections/StatementOfVotesCastNOV2020v2excel.pdf

Amador County same thing

https://www.amadorgov.org/home/showpublisheddocument?id=37869

Calaveras County

https://elections.calaverasgov.us/Results

[mileslunn]

Here is Shasta County:

Anderson: Trump 66.3% - Biden 30.2%

Redding: Trump 60.8% - Biden 35.3%

Shasta Lake: Trump 63.4% - Biden 33.2%

Unincorporated parts Trump got just shy of 70% while Biden down in 20s.

[mileslunn]

For Sierra County, only one incorporated municipality, but here are results:

Loyalton: Trump 65.27% - Biden 31.43%

So voted more Republican than rest of county.

[mileslunn]

Here is Stanislaus County

Ceres: Biden 58.33% - Trump 38.41%

Hughson: Trump 60.14% - Biden 36.84%

Modesto: Biden 52.16% - Trump 44.2%

Newman: Biden 55.44% - Trump 41.25%

Oakdale: Trump 62.23% - Biden 34.51%

Patterson: Biden 64.2% - Trump 32.33%

Riverbank: Biden 50.68% - Trump 45.76%

Turlock: Trump 50.04% - Biden 46.49%

Waterford: Trump 59.05% - Biden 37.52%

[mileslunn]

Just so they are all in one location here is Orange County by city

Biden on left, Trump on right.  Highlighted in red Biden wins, blue for Trump

Aliso Viejo   55.67%   40.71%
Anaheim   57.89%   38.74%
Brea   49.59%   46.67%
Buena Park   55.85%   41.01%
Costa Mesa   55.07%   40.75%
Cypress   52.40%   44.01%
Dana Point   46.53%   49.82%
Fountain Valley   46.40%   50.21%
Fullerton   56.41%   39.55%
Garden Grove   49.13%   48.05%
Huntington Beach   46.48%   49.66%
Irvine   63.15%   32.96%
La Habra   55.50%   40.86%
La Palma   55.09%   41.77%
Laguna Beach   62.26%   34.02%
Laguna Hills   51.18%   45.42%
Laguna Niguel   50.54%   45.91%
Laguna Woods   54.08%   43.78%
Lake Forest   51.50%   44.64%
Los Alamitos   50.91%   45.10%
Mission Viejo   49.14%   47.20%
Newport Beach   43.19%   52.80%
Orange   51.50%   44.37%
Placentia   50.99%   45.44%
Rancho Santa Margarita   47.13%   49.06%
San Clemente   43.20%   52.90%
San Juan Capistrano   46.51%   50.01%
Santa Ana   67.64%   29.18%
Seal Beach   49.66%   47.44%
Stanton   55.68%   41.45%
Tustin   59.79%   36.29%
Villa Park   36.98%   58.65%
Westminster   44.17%   53.22%
Yorba Linda   39.61%   56.79%

[mileslunn]

San Joaquin County (missing Escalon)

Lathrop: Biden 64.94% - Trump 31.9%

Lodi: Biden 52.56% - Trump 44.01%

Manteca: Biden 53.08% - Trump 43.55%

Ripon: Trump 63.84% - Biden 32.36%


Stockton: Biden 66.95% - Trump 29.59%

Tracy: Biden 62.91% - Trump 33.71%

[mileslunn]

Here is Sonoma County

Cloverdale: Biden 68.33% - Trump 29.3%

Cotati: Biden 77.98% - Trump 19.69%

Healdsburg: Biden 76.02% - Biden 21.46%

Petaluma: Biden 74.74% - Trump 22.87%

Rohnert Park: Biden 70.86% - Trump 26.38%

Santa Rosa:  Biden 75.71% - Trump 21.74%

Sebastopol: Biden 79.52% - Trump 17.9%

Sonoma: Biden 76.51% - Trump 21.35%

Windsor: Biden 68.36% - Trump 29.15%

All strongly for Biden so no surprise.  While agriculture usually tends to favour GOP, it seems major wine producing areas went heavily Democrat so perhaps could it be more the type who are wine drinkers and tourism they get is more your upper middle class social liberals?  Also it is fairly urban and Northern bay area has a lot of college educated white liberals.

[mileslunn]

San Mateo County

Atherton: Biden 71.79% - Trump 25.8%

Belmont: Biden 78.79% - Trump 19.08%

Brisbane: Biden 79.74% - Trump 18%

Burlingame: Biden 77.62% - Trump 20.55%

Colma: Biden 79.42% - Trump 19.05%

Daly City: Biden 77.2% - Trump 21.36%

East Palo Alto: Biden 86.59% - Trump 11.34%

Foster City: Biden 76.27% - Trump 21.92%

Half Moon Bay: Biden 75.81% - Trump 21.89%

Hillsborough: Biden 68.31% - Trump 29.34%

Menlo Park: Biden 84.53% - Trump 13.52%

Millbrae: Biden 70.57% - Trump 27.31%

Pacifica: Biden 76.46% - Trump 21.38%

Portola Valley: Biden 80.34% - Trump 17.16%

Redwood City: Biden 80.48% - Trump 17.41%

San Bruno: Biden 74.58% - Trump 23.55%

San Carlos: Biden 79.64% - Trump 18.45%

San Mateo: Biden 77.92% - Trump 20.18%

South San Francisco: Biden 77.05% - Trump 21.4%

Woodside: Biden 73% - Trump 24.67%

Like Sonoma, pretty solidly Biden throughout.  In 2016, Trump only won one precinct and while this has a large Asian population which in some but not all cases Trump did better amongst, I believe this county has a very high rate with college degrees.  Interestingly enough San Francisco and Boston suburbs were first to turn away from GOP as in 2004 those were only two where George W. Bush was not competitive in.  Yes several others went for Kerry, but at least Bush put up a strong second place showing in those.  By contrast a number of suburbs, not all, but many Trump got similar numbers to Bush in Boston and San Francisco which should worry GOP if that is long term trend.

It seems in Bay Area, only rural areas in very eastern edge does GOP win and of municipalities, only in inland eastern parts is GOP able to crack the 30% mark.