NSW, Australia - State Election 26 March 2011

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I would be utterly amazed if the ALP got to that level.

I think they'll get slaughtered, but not a 66-34 obliteration...

[redcommander]

Another day, another poll, and Labour does seem to be stuck in the low 20's since this is the third poll in a row to have them that low. If repeated on election day, they would be end up with 16 seats.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/nsw-election-2011/third-poll-crushes-all-hope-for-alp/story-fn7q4q9f-1226015605227

[minionofmidas]

Sydney's north-south divide is so crass it's funny. Not that there's anything new about that observation.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Prediction === 14 March

Coaltion: 59.5% TPP - 61 seats
ALP 41.5% TPP - 24 seats
Greens - 2 seats
Independents - 6 seats

[Smid]

Are you including Port Macquarie and/or Tamworth in your count of 6 independents? Dubbo is quite marginal Ind vs Nat, too, but less likely to be affected by federal independent factors. I think Port Macquarie is probably most likely to be influenced by federal politics because the federal MP campaigned very strongly for the state MP.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Are you including Port Macquarie and/or Tamworth in your count of 6 independents? Dubbo is quite marginal Ind vs Nat, too, but less likely to be affected by federal independent factors. I think Port Macquarie is probably most likely to be influenced by federal politics because the federal MP campaigned very strongly for the state MP.

Tamworth yes, Port Macquarie yes - I've Dubbo for the Nats

[Smid]

Are you including Port Macquarie and/or Tamworth in your count of 6 independents? Dubbo is quite marginal Ind vs Nat, too, but less likely to be affected by federal independent factors. I think Port Macquarie is probably most likely to be influenced by federal politics because the federal MP campaigned very strongly for the state MP.

Tamworth yes, Port Macquarie yes - I've Dubbo for the Nats

If you're keeping those two in the independent column, I assume also Northern Tablelands... and incumbent independent MPs seeing off Labor in Lake Macquarie and Sydney... which is the sixth seat?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newcastle

[Smid]

I haven't been following as closely as I might... is the same candidate running again? I think a former/current? mayor ran last time as an independent and came very close to winning. I think there was another independent who did pretty well, too... possibly a former Labor MP who split the vote?

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2007/guide/newc.htm

Edit: Never mind, here's Antony Green's current assessment: http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2011/guide/newc.htm

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2011/guide/newc.htm

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

All my numbers have the nationals finishing ahead of Labour.

[Smid]

All my numbers have the nationals finishing ahead of Labour.

It would be interesting if the Coalition broke down and the Nationals formed the official Opposition, but while it would deny Labor additional staff and resources, it would also disadvantage the Nats and cause long-term problems in relations between Liberals and the Nats. Besides, the Liberals will still need Nationals support in the Upper House.

Did you see I did the Northern Territory maps you requested in that other thread?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If they are the ones you posted to fb, then yes.

[redcommander]

Is there a chance that Keneally could lose her seat? I know it is a pretty safe constituency, but Anthony Green only has it at a Likely Labor rating, and with her unpopularity I don't think people should take for granted her reelection. The Greens apparently are smelling blood too.

http://www.skynews.com.au/local/article.aspx?id=581865&vId=

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Is there a chance that Keneally could lose her seat? I know it is a pretty safe constituency, but Anthony Green only has it at a Likely Labour rating, and with her unpopularity I don't think people should take for granted her reelection. The Greens apparently are smelling blood too.

http://www.skynews.com.au/local/article.aspx?id=581865&vId=

It's not really her unpopularity, for a Government that is completely putrid, her popularity levels aren't that bad.

People generally like her.

A friend of mine who lives in her seat said "Eisenhower could come back from the dead and run as a Liberal and not win Heffron"

She'll have to go to preferences, but the Green vote in that area is so high there's no way the Lib will get enough of that flow to push them over.

[Smid]

Is there a chance that Keneally could lose her seat? I know it is a pretty safe constituency, but Anthony Green only has it at a Likely Labour rating, and with her unpopularity I don't think people should take for granted her reelection. The Greens apparently are smelling blood too.

http://www.skynews.com.au/local/article.aspx?id=581865&vId=

It's not really her unpopularity, for a Government that is completely putrid, her popularity levels aren't that bad.

People generally like her.

A friend of mine who lives in her seat said "Eisenhower could come back from the dead and run as a Liberal and not win Heffron"

She'll have to go to preferences, but the Green vote in that area is so high there's no way the Lib will get enough of that flow to push them over.

Additionally, she'll lead on primary votes, and under OPV, with every vote that expires, her percentage will increase, so as long as she finishes ahead of the Liberal on primary vote, she only has to hope that preferences from the Greens and others will flow no worse than 50-50.

[Smid]

If they are the ones you posted to fb, then yes.

Yes, on there, and also in the Gallery here. I posted them in the thread you started, too: here

These ones (and the ones on Facebook) are slightly tampered with in the NT regional map - as mentioned in the thread. If you want a blank one without that bit removed, let me know and I'll email you (they're too big for the gallery here). One of the maps I did had the regional and Darwin maps side by side, so I can send you that, too. If you still want them for Wikipedia and/or the international section of your website, that is.

[redcommander]

Is ABC going to have a live online television stream of results like they did with the General Election last year?

[Smid]

Is ABC going to have a live online television stream of results like they did with the General Election last year?

I expect so - they normally do.

I'm also expecting Labor to perform better than most people are anticipating... there is no doubt that people are waiting with baseball bats, but I think there's nothing quite like an obvious election result to allow complacency among normally safe voters who may have been flirting with the idea of abandoning the party they typically support.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm having a REALLY hard time working the numbers out...

I cannot really work out the exact seat numbers predictions because I think the average swing will be about 14%... but there will be a lot of local factors that push seats outside of that range to the Libs, but also have the ALP hold seats within that range.

I'm currently predicting the TPPv to be 60.5-39.5

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2011/

The SkyNews exit poll is showing a 21% swing, which, if uniform, would leave the ALP with 13 seats in the 93 seat lower house.... I still can't quite fathom a blowout of that extent.

[Smid]

I know East Hills (64%) is considered a key seat because a half dozen friends heading there from interstate are campaigning there.

Sky News reporting the swing is 21% but I think some safer Labor seats may resist the swing due to the foregone conclusion of the election result.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah, I think there will be big swings outside of the overall, as well as much smaller ones than expected.

[Tender Branson]

Excuse my lack of knowlegde about NSW, but what exactly has the NSW Labour done to receive the worst result today since 1904 ?

[Smid]

Hugh and I are watching over at my apartment - we were just discussing earlier that we think Labor will later be saying "well, it's bad, but not as bad as we were expecting..."

Mind you, Sky was saying how they've gone backwards over the course of the campaign, so perhaps people have totally disengaged - that's the problem with winning one election too many...