Canadian election 2010/2011

[Hash]

The Greenies outpolled the NDP like 13-12 in a poll in 2008 or so (not campaign season) and an hilarious case of poll sampling fail had the Greenies, while at 9-10% nationally, posting a lead in Quebec.

In another case of sampling fail by EKOS, which seems to be the worst pollster these days, those idiots added a subsample for Ottawa, Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver in their polls. I recommend tracking the Ottawa subsample for particular fun!

[cinyc]

The Greenies outpolled the NDP like 13-12 in a poll in 2008 or so (not campaign season) and an hilarious case of poll sampling fail had the Greenies, while at 9-10% nationally, posting a lead in Quebec.

In another case of sampling fail by EKOS, which seems to be the worst pollster these days, those idiots added a subsample for Ottawa, Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver in their polls. I recommend tracking the Ottawa subsample for particular fun!

The MOEs for the provincial/regional subsamples (except Ontario, in some polls) are almost always so high that they make the subsample results laughably meaningless.  I can only imagine how laughably high the MoE for the Ottawa, Montreal and Vancouver subsamples must be.  Unless EKOS deliberately oversampled those cities, it has to be at least 8-9% if not in the double digits.  The MoE for the Toronto subsample might be a little more reasonable, depending on what EKOS views as Toronto.  

[RodPresident]

If Ignatieff was PM, he would put Canada in Iraq, like Blair. Layton is the right way to Canadian progressives.

[Hatman 🍁]

If Ignatieff was PM, he would put Canada in Iraq, like Blair. Layton is the right way to Canadian progressives.

I doubt the Liberals would've let Iggy do that, to be fair. But it's obvious the man is an opportunistic panderer who will never become Prime Minister.

[DL]

Don't be so sure, Canada came very very very close to sending troops to fight in the Iraq war in 2003. Paul martin was by all accounts 100% in favour of joining the war and threatened to quit if Canada didn't join Bush's war and many Liberals wanted badly to join in the Iraq war.

There is only ONE reason why Chretien decided to spare Canada from any involvement in the Iraq (something which is now seen as his greatest accomplishment) - In April 2003 there was to be a provincial election in Quebec and it was looking to be close, Chretien wanted more than anything else to see the PQ defeated and to see a federalist provincial government in Quebec. Public opinion in Quebec was OVERWHELMINGLY anti-war and if Chretien had announced in March 2003 that Canada was joining the war it would have created a massive anti-Ottawa backlash in Quebec which the PQ would have exploited to no end and it would have won the PQ the election.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Don't be so sure, Canada came very very very close to sending troops to fight in the Iraq war in 2003. Paul martin was by all accounts 100% in favour of joining the war and threatened to quit if Canada didn't join Bush's war and many Liberals wanted badly to join in the Iraq war.

There is only ONE reason why Chretien decided to spare Canada from any involvement in the Iraq (something which is now seen as his greatest accomplishment) - In April 2003 there was to be a provincial election in Quebec and it was looking to be close, Chretien wanted more than anything else to see the PQ defeated and to see a federalist provincial government in Quebec. Public opinion in Quebec was OVERWHELMINGLY anti-war and if Chretien had announced in March 2003 that Canada was joining the war it would have created a massive anti-Ottawa backlash in Quebec which the PQ would have exploited to no end and it would have won the PQ the election.

Anyone remember how Chretien managed to get away with it?

The media wanted us to go. All the ducks lined up. The Liberal Cabinet, reportedly, was in favour, partly due to media pressure. The opposition, particularity Harper and the Alliance, wanted to go. Harper even went on US TV. The media was close to getting their goal of having Canadian troops in Iraq. They demanded an answer from the PM. It was now all up to him! They asked him what we would need to march in... The soldiers were ready, guns at their side! Waiting for orders!! The PM said he would need proof that Iraq was up to no good. The media would not stand for that simple answer!! They demanded more!!! The clock was ticking!!! It was now or never!!! The answer to this question would determine Canada's fate... forever!!! And the PM, delivered his answer:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aX6XMIldkRU
And they all shrugged, smiled, and walked away

Okay, maybe that's a liiiiiittle bit of an exaggeration, but this was the 'answer' that saved us!

[Hatman 🍁]

Don't be so sure, Canada came very very very close to sending troops to fight in the Iraq war in 2003. Paul martin was by all accounts 100% in favour of joining the war and threatened to quit if Canada didn't join Bush's war and many Liberals wanted badly to join in the Iraq war.

There is only ONE reason why Chretien decided to spare Canada from any involvement in the Iraq (something which is now seen as his greatest accomplishment) - In April 2003 there was to be a provincial election in Quebec and it was looking to be close, Chretien wanted more than anything else to see the PQ defeated and to see a federalist provincial government in Quebec. Public opinion in Quebec was OVERWHELMINGLY anti-war and if Chretien had announced in March 2003 that Canada was joining the war it would have created a massive anti-Ottawa backlash in Quebec which the PQ would have exploited to no end and it would have won the PQ the election.

Anyone remember how Chretien managed to get away with it?

The media wanted us to go. All the ducks lined up. The Liberal Cabinet, reportedly, was in favour, partly due to media pressure. The opposition, particularity Harper and the Alliance, wanted to go. Harper even went on US TV. The media was close to getting their goal of having Canadian troops in Iraq. They demanded an answer from the PM. It was now all up to him! They asked him what we would need to march in... The soldiers were ready, guns at their side! Waiting for orders!! The PM said he would need proof that Iraq was up to no good. The media would not stand for that simple answer!! They demanded more!!! The clock was ticking!!! It was now or never!!! The answer to this question would determine Canada's fate... forever!!! And the PM, delivered his answer:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aX6XMIldkRU
And they all shrugged, smiled, and walked away

Okay, maybe that's a liiiiiittle bit of an exaggeration, but this was the 'answer' that saved us!

I miss that man... and coincidentally, so does the Liberal Party.

[Hatman 🍁]

BUMP. Budget looks like it's going to fall. May elections seems imminent.

[RogueBeaver]

The vote will be on Friday, we go to the polls May 2 most likely.

[Insula Dei]

Ah, something to make my spring interesting. Hopefully the NDP can make further inroads.

[Smid]

Ah, something to make my spring interesting. Hopefully the NDP can make further inroads.

While hanging onto their recent gains in the past couple of elections.

They've come close-ish in some seats like Dartmouth-Cole Harbour... A couple of thousand votes out of the Liberal column and into the NDP column and the seat could fall.

I understand, however, that the NDP provincial government in Nova Scotia is not popular? I could be wrong? If so, could the negative opinion at a provincial level affect the chance of the federal candidate in the seat?

[DL]

Two polls out this week just as the government was falling:

Nanos (n - 1,200):

Conservatives - 39%
Liberals - 28%
NDP - 20%
BQ - 10%
Greens - 4%

Harris-Decima (n = 2,000):

Conservatives - 34%
Liberals - 28%
NDP - 17%
BQ - 10%
Greens - 9%
Other - 2%

Depending on which poll you believe - either the Conservatives are knocking on the door of a majority or they will lose seats and a Liberal/NDP will take power after the election. There is an interesting methodological issue. HD reads the names of all the parties (including the moribund and irrelevant Green Party which has never won a seat at any level anywhere in Canada). Nanos asks the vote question as an unprompted open ended question "Who would you vote for?" with no reading of any party names. Its interesting that the Green and "Other" vote almost vanishes when there is no prompting and both the Conservatives and NDP go up. 

[Leftbehind]

There is an interesting methodological issue. HD reads the names of all the parties (including the moribund and irrelevant Green Party which has never won a seat at any level anywhere in Canada). Nanos asks the vote question as an unprompted open ended question "Who would you vote for?" with no reading of any party names. Its interesting that the Green and "Other" vote almost vanishes when there is no prompting and both the Conservatives and NDP go up.  

Our Greens would kill for the vote that their Canadian counterparts seem to be polling (although I say counterpart, but Canadian Greens seem centrist in comparison)! Any party polling the figures they are is nowhere near irrelevent, even if they don't win seats because of a crappy unproportional system. It also make sense that Greens or Others disappear without prompting, as there's never a guarantee that they'll stand - for instance in my constituency the Greens have never stood and Others standing is a relatively new development ('92 onwards).

[Хahar 🤔]

Canadian Greens seem centrist in comparison

That would be because the Canadian Greens are a centrist party.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Outside of Urban areas, the Green vote is very similar to past "Red Tory" voting patterns. The party is borderline right-wing on some issues. Personally, I'm just waiting for the Joe Clark types to get official memberships already.

[Leftbehind]

Interesting. I had them pegged as centrist, but a Canadian Liberal I know seemed convinced they were leftist, or at least their voters were.

[DL]

I think in the last Canadian election the Green party had a mini-surge (i.e. from 4% to 6%) from disaffected supporters of the centre-right Liberal party - which had an extremely weak leader and who ran a dreadful campaign.

Its interesting that in the lead up to the 2008 election, the Liberals actually went out of their way to promote the Green party because they had this theory that it would draw votes from the NDP and help the Liberals win some Liberal/NDP marginals. The ploy totally backfired when the Greens ended up taking votes from the Liberals more than from anyone else!

[Hatman 🍁]

Ah, something to make my spring interesting. Hopefully the NDP can make further inroads.

While hanging onto their recent gains in the past couple of elections.

They've come close-ish in some seats like Dartmouth-Cole Harbour... A couple of thousand votes out of the Liberal column and into the NDP column and the seat could fall.

I understand, however, that the NDP provincial government in Nova Scotia is not popular? I could be wrong? If so, could the negative opinion at a provincial level affect the chance of the federal candidate in the seat?

The NDP is polling even with the Liberals provincially, which is to be expected, really

I think the NDP will lose seats in the election

[Smid]

Ah, something to make my spring interesting. Hopefully the NDP can make further inroads.

While hanging onto their recent gains in the past couple of elections.

They've come close-ish in some seats like Dartmouth-Cole Harbour... A couple of thousand votes out of the Liberal column and into the NDP column and the seat could fall.

I understand, however, that the NDP provincial government in Nova Scotia is not popular? I could be wrong? If so, could the negative opinion at a provincial level affect the chance of the federal candidate in the seat?

The NDP is polling even with the Liberals provincially, which is to be expected, really

I think the NDP will lose seats in the election

I hope you don't lose seats this election! Do you think you can hang onto that London seat, the Hamilton seats and the one out near Niagara? Also, how about Northern Ontario, especially Sudbury? I think you gained a few of those seats there last election, if I remember correct. I note that the one near Niagara and two of the Hamilton seats are held provincially by the NDP, so I suspect there is probably a strong party network of volunteers there able to run a successful GOTV campaign. I'd still be interested to hear your thoughts, though. What about Gatineau? You outpolled all but the Bloc there last time... do you think you may be able to pick up additional federalist voters, who might vote strategically to block the Bloc, or are you at the high-water mark there already?

The BC Liberals are unpopular, aren't they? I know they're different, but do you think that popularity for the NDP at a provincial level could translate into additional votes federally? I'd really like to see you guys pick up Vancouver South, Vancouver Central and hang onto Vancouver Kingsway (that was the one you won at the last election, yeah?).

Ideally, I'd like to see the Liberals wiped out west of Ontario, but I know that's just wishful thinking on my part. Really, the Liberals should be the minor party, holding the balance of power and deciding which legislation to support or oppose between the Conservatives and the NDP, whereas the tendency to just oppose the Conservatives for political gain makes things quite strange. It makes far more sense for the Tories and NDP to be the main two governing parties. I think the best result would be a Conservative majority, with the NDP forming the official Opposition - because it would give stability for enough time for the population to see the NDP as an alternative government by the time the next election is called, but unfortunately I can't see it happening.

[Marokai Backbeat]

I think it would be a pretty sad and embarassing state of affairs if the NDP has a net loss this election considering this is probably the best opportunity they have, barring something miraculous, to make real inroads and be seen as a serious alternative. If the NDP can't make any sort of gains when the Liberals are incredibly weak and people aren't really flocking to the Conservatives, either, then I see no reason for people to actually ever be hopeful for the NDP.

[Хahar 🤔]

Really the important thing is that the NDP win a seat in Saskatchewan. The current order of things there is ridiculous and unnatural.

[Hash]

I suppose I'll be doing some campaign work for the Liberals if time permits. I'm pretty pessimistic about this election, because good rarely comes out of Canadian politics these last few years.

[You kip if you want to...]

I hear that the government's officially lost confidence, right?

[bullmoose88]

I hear that the government's officially lost confidence, right?

Government has fallen.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/03/25/pol-defeat.html