In what scenario could Trump win RI? (user search)
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  In what scenario could Trump win RI? (search mode)
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Author Topic: In what scenario could Trump win RI?  (Read 1008 times)
Deblano
EdgarAllenYOLO
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« on: February 12, 2017, 03:03:55 PM »

I don't know about RI, but I don't think it would be out of the realm of plausibility for him to win Connecticut in a "successful Trump presidency" scenario. Trump did far better in New England than Romney in 2012.
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Deblano
EdgarAllenYOLO
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Posts: 1,680
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« Reply #1 on: February 12, 2017, 03:30:37 PM »

A Trump wins RI map would probably look something like this.



Trump/Pence: 46.90%
Clinton/Kaine: 46.41%
Johnson/Weld: 3.18%
Write-ins: 1.85%
Stein/Baraka: 1.34%
Others: 0.32%
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Deblano
EdgarAllenYOLO
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« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2017, 03:37:44 PM »

It's only going to happen in the dreams of delusional Trump supporters. Seriously, the reaction to Rhode Island being somewhat closer than it was in previous elections is worse than the reaction to Hawaii after 2004. And Hawaii was significantly closer in that election.
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Deblano
EdgarAllenYOLO
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« Reply #3 on: February 12, 2017, 04:41:53 PM »

Everyone saying CT is a possibility is absurd.  CT has one of the highest education levels in the country coupled with a large and growing minority vote share.  CT is the prototype for the new democratic coalition.  Fairfield County is a perfect example of this: large urban minority base in Bridgeport and Stamford coupled with highly educated and socially liberal suburbs like Westport.

What if John Kasich or some other center-right, pro-business moderate was the nominee?
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Deblano
EdgarAllenYOLO
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Posts: 1,680
United States


« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2017, 04:51:31 PM »

Everyone saying CT is a possibility is absurd.  CT has one of the highest education levels in the country coupled with a large and growing minority vote share.  CT is the prototype for the new democratic coalition.  Fairfield County is a perfect example of this: large urban minority base in Bridgeport and Stamford coupled with highly educated and socially liberal suburbs like Westport.

What if John Kasich or some other center-right, pro-business moderate was the nominee?

Nope. If Romney could only barely crack 40%, I don't see why Kasich does a whole lot better. He would lose all the social liberals immediately.

True. I know that the 2014 GOP gubernatorial nominee for Connecticutt, Tom Foley, was pro-choice and was in favor of maintaining the gay marriage law and was even open to the idea of raising the minimum wage, so that probably demonstrates how the CT GOP is firmly to center from the national GOP.
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