The state has been drifting away from the GOP since 1996. Hispanic population is part but the state has a large white, educated demographic that Obama has held onto much better.
2000: Had a Democratic trend even with Nader siphoning off a large percentage of Gore votes (over 5%)
2004: Bush won but margin of victory considerably thinner even as he improved nationwide. Dems also won open senate seat in a GOP friendly year.
2006: Dems win everything, easily take the open 7th district
2008: Obama posts a larger victory than his nationwide average, Dems easily take the other senate seat.
2010: Despite a GOP landslide the wave is considerably smaller. Dems hold senate seat, governorship, state senate and even the state house is a draw. Both of the GOP house pickups (3rd, 4th) come in districts mccain won and the 4th was always a solidly red seat and the 3rd was quite close.
2012 outlook: Of course Romney COULD win but its PVI should be D+1-2, meaning Romney will only win as icing on the cake.
2006 and 2008 were terrible election years for the GOP though. I'll give you the 2004 and 2010 results though for the D's since 2004 was sort of a nuetral year(all of the house seats the GOP picked up were in Texas after the re-redistricting there.) 2010 was of course a big Republican year as you said.
The GOP can't afford to give CO up the way they did CA especially if CO keeps on adding a new house seat once every decade. CO looks like it is becoming Massacusetts politically in my opinion.
I agree the new PVI after the 2012 Elections will be D+1 or D+2. Nate Silver has Obama up 51-49% right now in CO I think right now, Alot closer than I thought it was gonna be.
