Will an Independent/Third Party Nominee Emerge in 2012?

[HAnnA MArin County]

The media keeps alluding to how the Republican Party is pretty much done for heading into 2012 with the Ensign and Sanford scandals and Palin's resignation and there not be any clear leader of the party. Assuming things stay the way they are (Obama remains relatively popular, the economy gradually recovers, foreign relations improve, the Party of No continues to fall apart), the media keeps mentioning the possibility of an Independent or third-party candidate to rise up in 2012. It was previously mentioned in another post about how the GOP may split into the two common factions: a moderate/Rockefeller/libertarian-leaning Republican vs. a conservative/evangelical/Huckabee type Republican. If the party is divided so much, will this be the perfect opportunity for another credible Independent candidate like Ross Perot or even, dare I say it, a viable third-party candidate from say the Libertarian Party or the Constitution Party? Basically, I'm wanting to get the discussion started on if 2012 will be a year when we have three or even four viable presidential candidates.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Republicans are as done in 2012 as Dems were in 2004, in fact there probably in better shape

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If things stay as they are, then I don't foresee a viable third option in 2012 emerging.  For a third option to gain traction, the popularity of Obama and the Democrats will have to fall into the 20-40 range by 2011.  The Republicans will not have fully recovered by 2012 and likely won't be able to present a clear strategy.  The combination will open the door for someone to mount a credible third option because the usual two options will both be looking bad.

[Vepres]

Obama's approvals fall to Carter levels or worse, while Republicans still are mismanaged, continue moving to the right, and nominate somebody like Palin.

[pbrower2a]

Republicans are as done in 2012 as Dems were in 2004, in fact there probably in better shape

The Democrats didn't think that they were "done" in 2004, a close election in which the Democratic Party was not linked to major scandals of abuse of power. 2006 was the critical election, the one that decided whether America would become a single-Party system in all but name.

[Alexander Hamilton]

Republicans are as done in 2012 as Dems were in 2004, in fact there probably in better shape

Wrong. Democrats has a better 2000 than Republicans did. You could hardly say the same of the GOP in 2008.

[JJones]

Ventura

[pragmatic liberal]

I could see it happening if Obama's approval ratings are low AND the Republican Party still hasn't repaired its own image. If Mitt Romney can't present a more likeable, credible face than he did in '08 (when his personal negatives were very high), then yes, I could see a run by, say, Bloomberg.

[Vepres]

Republicans are as done in 2012 as Dems were in 2004, in fact there probably in better shape

The Democrats didn't think that they were "done" in 2004, a close election in which the Democratic Party was not linked to major scandals of abuse of power. 2006 was the critical election, the one that decided whether America would become a single-Party system in all but name.

In three years this shall be filed under "what the hell was he thinking!".