2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[Devils30]

Does anyone think if the Dems win the Supreme Court race and get 6-1 that they can maybe convince the court to draw a 11-6 map? I feel like the Dems will be bold in asking considering what will happen in states like FL.

[Devils30]

Yeah, I think a favorable realistic Dem map would be more like 10-7 with 1 of the 10 Biden districts being Fitzpatrick who is unlikely to lose a general in 22 or 24.

To make an actual 11-6 gerrymander that wouldn't backfire you really need to completely crack Philly and make the blue parts of PA-7,8 one blue district.

[Devils30]

Here's mine after taking away PA-4's extension in Berks

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f6919645-5ded-4fee-b55a-9a9e46a067d9



In this case PA-8 is definitely gone.   Lamb's and Houlahan's seats are still winnable by Democrats though.

Dems would be smart to propose a plan sacrificing PA-8 but making 7 and 17 bluer. Since the PA Supreme Court is Dem, see if they will be cool with giving 17 a part of Pittsburgh. Also look into the possibility of giving 10 an arm into the city of Lancaster.

[Devils30]

The Dems should see if the PA Supreme Court would be willing to crack Philly. Unlikely but it's worth a try with a friendly judicial body.

[Devils30]

I don’t know why Dems aren’t trying to get Republicans to agree to an independent redistricting commission here given the Damocles sword of the state Supreme Court drawing a Dem gerrymander of the legislature otherwise.

Or are Dems just too stupid to think ahead (2031) here?

Dems should get the PA Supreme Ct to gerrymander at least one state leg. branch. That is the best way to put a quick end to Trump's post-2024 loss shenanigans before it begins.

[Devils30]

The Dems should see if the PA Supreme Court would be willing to crack Philly. Unlikely but it's worth a try with a friendly judicial body.

Cracking Philly doesn't help in the congressional map unless you splits Bucks, the parts of Philly adjoining PA-01 are fairly Republican and the other districts adjoining Philly are already solidly D. PA-01 going into southern Montgomery is actually bluer than if it goes into Philadelphia. My fair map actually does crack Philly a bit to get all three districts in it majority minority, but this hurts Dems by removing the bluest parts of Montgomery from PA-04, turning it into a swing district. (My map compensates for this elsewhere by making PA-10 into a Trump/Biden district)

I'd rather have a Biden won Dem trending PA-10 than trying to save Cartwright.

[Devils30]

The Dems should see if the PA Supreme Court would be willing to crack Philly. Unlikely but it's worth a try with a friendly judicial body.

Cracking Philly doesn't help in the congressional map unless you splits Bucks, the parts of Philly adjoining PA-01 are fairly Republican and the other districts adjoining Philly are already solidly D. PA-01 going into southern Montgomery is actually bluer than if it goes into Philadelphia. My fair map actually does crack Philly a bit to get all three districts in it majority minority, but this hurts Dems by removing the bluest parts of Montgomery from PA-04, turning it into a swing district. (My map compensates for this elsewhere by making PA-10 into a Trump/Biden district)

I'd rather have a Biden won Dem trending PA-10 than trying to save Cartwright.

See this post for how to do that. If you are willing to chuck Cartwright by putting all of Monroe in PA-07, then you can more or less keep the core of every SEPA seat. And if you are cutting one dem seat, why not create another in SCPA with the three cities?

Arguably, that's what I think people don't realize. The court is dem leaning, and knows the western seats need to take in more turf cause a seat got cut - raising the overall threshold. The biggest basket of unused Dem votes available to add to those seats, to preserve the topline partisan equitability (will be a desire) is to use Lancaster, either in PA-06 or PA-10.

I wonder if putting Lackawanna in Wild's PA-7 is another solution while putting Allentown or Bethlehem in PA-1

[Devils30]

The Dems should see if the PA Supreme Court would be willing to crack Philly. Unlikely but it's worth a try with a friendly judicial body.

Cracking Philly doesn't help in the congressional map unless you splits Bucks, the parts of Philly adjoining PA-01 are fairly Republican and the other districts adjoining Philly are already solidly D. PA-01 going into southern Montgomery is actually bluer than if it goes into Philadelphia. My fair map actually does crack Philly a bit to get all three districts in it majority minority, but this hurts Dems by removing the bluest parts of Montgomery from PA-04, turning it into a swing district. (My map compensates for this elsewhere by making PA-10 into a Trump/Biden district)

I'd rather have a Biden won Dem trending PA-10 than trying to save Cartwright.

See this post for how to do that. If you are willing to chuck Cartwright by putting all of Monroe in PA-07, then you can more or less keep the core of every SEPA seat. And if you are cutting one dem seat, why not create another in SCPA with the three cities?

Arguably, that's what I think people don't realize. The court is dem leaning, and knows the western seats need to take in more turf cause a seat got cut - raising the overall threshold. The biggest basket of unused Dem votes available to add to those seats, to preserve the topline partisan equitability (will be a desire) is to use Lancaster, either in PA-06 or PA-10.

So under this proposal Biden districts would be: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,10,16 (old 18th), 17 

10-7 Biden seems like something worth trying with the court.

[Devils30]

With both Doyle and Lamb out, its almost guaranteed that the Pittsburgh region will maintain it's current alignment with 1 D-leaning swing and one safe - or get better for Dems. No incumbents anymore to worry about, so only statewide partisan concerns need matter.

Cartwright is the one the Dems should throw under. Ask the court to make PA-7 Biden +10, PA-17 more like Biden +8-12 and try to get a swingy Biden won PA-10 around Harrisburg. It's almost impossible to make both 7 and 8 safe D without an extremely ugly map.

[Devils30]

Here's my new fair map for PA with 2020 Prez data. Outside of Philly, only one or two towns might have been split unintentionally.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/84bb518c-8137-45cd-a6b8-8e2747b53cb5

They're 9 Trump districts - 8 Biden seats

PA-1: Biden +5.7
PA-2: Biden +43.4
PA-3: Biden +79.8
PA-4: Biden +26.7
PA-5: Biden +29.7
PA-6: Biden +6.6
PA-7: Biden +4
PA-8: Trump +8.4
PA-9: Trump +32.4
PA-10: Trump +10.1
PA-11: Trump +15.3
PA-12: Trump +35.3
PA-13: Trump +44.6
PA-14: Trump +22.6
PA-15: Trump +25.7
PA-16: Trump +13.4
PA-17: Biden +36.3

This isn't a fair map, it's a GOP gerrymander. 16 has to be a narrow Biden seat and 10 should be more in its current form to be fair.

[Devils30]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/222b5cee-1ab5-472a-8ea0-53ea1eb85515

I’m not sure cracking Pittsburgh is a good idea. Those districts are like Biden+11 and Biden+14 and may fall in a wave. Better to have a safe seat and a swing or even R-leaning seat.

That doesn't follow what we've seen in states like Nevada or Oregon.   Democrats seem more interested in maxing their ceiling than their floor.

Don’t forget Illinois.

We also may be seeing the same pattern in MD, NJ, NY if Dems get too greedy.

If Dems are losing Biden + 8 districts, the House is already long gone and so is the Senate of course.

And that gives them two options:

1. Cede some extra seats to Republicans (i.e. MD-1, NJ-7) to keep their floor as high as possible.
2. Try to raise their ceiling, putting them at risk in an R wave, but knowing they’d hold them in a normal year.

Dems are stupid to cede seats like MD-1, NJ-7...its about holding them in a 50-50 year, don't worry about a wave. Be prepared in the event Roe gets overturned for things to backfire on the GOP just in case.