I'm not good at maths, but I don't think that 37% is a majority...
Could both sides quit spinning? It's irritating...
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As to why Kerry lost Ohio: I agree with JNB. I'll add that Kerry's last rally should have been in Dayton or Eastern Ohio (Portsmouth or Zanesville. Maybe Steubenville)
The Democrats need to learn the hard lesson that Labour learned in the '80's: when a large amount of you're natural supporters are not voting for you you need to find out why and do something about it... even if it means abandoning a smaller group of voters.
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Re: Higher Turnout... I personally think that the higher turnout *did* help Kerry. If turnout was as low as it was in 2000, I'm pretty sure that Bush would have won big.
It is not spin Al. First off, it is a fact that most people who are "Independent" in fact align themselves with one party or another.
Second, in the past, high turnout favored the Democrats because most people identified with that party. This past year, highturnout benefited the Republicans. In order to win, the Democrats are now in the possition that the Republicans were in all that year, they have to figure out a way to steal voters away from the other party, or depress turn-out.
You know what that means, Al? Realignment. I'm not the only one who is saying so either. I hate to pull names, but my professor Dr. David Kozak, who is called the "John Madden of American Politics" by Charlie Cook, also believes that there has been a realignment.
It's also worth noting that Kerry actually won the independent vote, albeit narrowly. Bush won because there were just as many Republicans as Democrats for the first time in a long time, and more Democrats voted for Bush than Democrats for Kerry.
I don't know if the Dem turnout was as good as it possibly could have been, however. Yes, turnout was high this year compared to past years, but there were still a lot of people who didn't vote. The Republicans clearly had a much better turnout operation than in the past, and thus the Democrats thought their GOTV effort was good enough to win because they didn't expect the Republican GOTV to be as good as it was.
I wouldn't necessarily say that the Democratic GOTV was phenomenally good this year, however.
That being said, the GOP, even if they are temporarily a majority party, won't remain so. They will go too far to the right, and the Dems will go back toward the middle, and we will return to equilibrium or a Democratic majority again. As much as you guys hate people like Specter, you need him to have a majority; don't confuse a Republican majority with a conservative majority.
About half of the American people are moderate, 30% are conservative, and 20% liberal or so. Both parties need moderates to win.
