Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

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Lega first in the polls for the first time

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EMG polling

54% of Lega voters prefer a coalition with the centre-right, while 44% prefer the current coalition with M5S.

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Opposition in M5S towards Lega's promised flat tax:

Minister for the South Barbara Lezzi said Monday that she thinks it could be too expensive to press ahead with plans to introduce a two-tier flat tax on income. "The flat tax costs 60 billion euros and our country cannot afford it," Lezzi, a M5S member, told Radio 24. "So it is a promise that cannot be kept".
    Deputy Premier, Interior Minister and League leader Matteo Salvini on Monday dismissed reports that the 'flat tax' could cost up to 60 billion euros, saying 12 to 15 billion euros should suffice. Another senior M5S member, Economy Ministry Undersecretary Laura Castelli, said even that would be too much.
    "I don't think one should keeping shooting for unreachable things," Castelli told reporters.
    "Even if it were 15 billion, today the (cost of the) reform of (income tax) IRPEF is unsustainable, so it is necessary to reorganize the existing system".

http://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2019/03/18/flat-tax-promise-cant-be-kept-lezzi_7274c3f3-244e-4873-b27f-53857d663635.html

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M5S behind PD in SWG poll

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Sounds like a quite serious conflict this time

Premier Giuseppe Conte's government appeared to be moving towards a formal crisis on Thursday when Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini's League party openly talked of the possibility of a snap election.
Conte's League/5-Star Movement (M5S) coalition government is in turmoil after the ruling majority split dramatically on Wednesday in votes in parliament about the controversial TAV Turin-Lyon high-speed rail-link project. The Senate voted against a motion presented by the M5S seeking to stop the TAV with 181 votes against, including those of League lawmakers, and 110 in favour. Several motions in favour of the project presented by opposition parties were approved by similar margins. The TAV is just one of several issues that has caused tension between the M5S and League recently.
"Italy needs certainty and courageous choices," the League said in a statement. It's no good continuing with noes, postponements, blocks and rows every day. Every day that passes is a day that is lost. As far as we are concerned, the only alternative to this government is giving the word back to the Italian people with new elections".
The League seemed to suggest that the coalition was irreparably compromised. "There is awareness and recognition that, after many good things that were done, the League and the 5-Star Movement for too long have had visions that are different on the fundamental issues for the country, such as major public works, infrastructure, economic development, the fiscal shock, the application of regional autonomy, justice reform and relations with Europe," the League said. "Yesterday's vote on the TAV was just the last, clear, irreparable certification of this".

https://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2019/08/08/early-election-only-alternative-league_02cf7866-64ce-4391-af33-00f58b84971a.html

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Very serious it seems. Salvini now calls for new elections.

Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini says Italy’s government no longer has a majority and called for “swift” elections.

The League leader announced his intention to break up the fractious coalition with the Five Star Movement after two days of frenzied talks. Salvini said Parliament should acknowledge that the government headed by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte no longer has enough votes to survive.

“It’s pointless to go ahead with ‘no’s and quarrels like in the past few weeks, Italians need certainties and a government capable of acting,” Salvini said in a statement on Thursday night. “We don’t want more cabinet seats or ministries, we don’t a reshuffle or a technocratic government.”

For Salvini, the end of the majority was laid bare when the coalition couldn’t agree this week on a vote on a high-speed rail link to France and by the “continued insults against me and the League from our ‘allies’.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-08/salvini-says-italian-government-lacks-majority-election-needed

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Does anybody know whether Rosatellum has been tried at the Constitutional Court? I know M5S wanted it to go there when they voted against it, but I can't find any information about whether it has actually been tried at court. Hopefully, it could be struck down and Italy can get the open-list proportional system a great country like it deserves. The open-list part and the proportionality part is what the Constitutional Court focused on in striking down the other electoral laws, but unfortunately the replacements parliament agree on rarely seem to fulfill these criteria.

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One should never celebrate early electoral reform rumours out of Italy, but would of course be the best possible scenario if this happened:
"The PD was initially reported to be against cutting the number of MPs but is now said to be coming round to the idea, as part of a wider electoral reform restoring 100% proportional representation."

http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2019/08/23/m5s-pd-govt-talks-get-off-to-constructive-start_8a4f5b40-84f3-4762-b815-b9fed5ed9ef5.html

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It sounds like there's a government drama tonight. Renzi's Italia Viva could leave the government over disagreements about the recovery plan, and then the questions is whether the government still has a majority behind it.

The anti-establishment 5-Star Movement (M5S) and the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) on Tuesday warned ex-premier Matteo Renzi against plunging Premier Giuseppe Conte's coalition government into crisis. Ministers from Renzi's centrist Italia Viva (IV) party may resign after a cabinet meeting later on Tuesday to approve the government's Recovery Plan.
Renzi has been at odds with Conte for weeks about the government's programme on how to spend some 209 billion euros Italy will get in grants and low-interest loans from the EU's COVID-19 Recovery Fund. Renzi has blasted the plan as lacking ambition while also saying IV's problems with the government go beyond this issue, including the failure to take up the option of getting 37 billion in cash from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) for a national health system pushed to the limit by COVID-19
There is speculation Conte could resign and form what would be his third government after a cabinet reshuffle, with the premier being flanked by deputy premiers from the parties supporting the executive. But this executive may not have enough parliamentary support without IV, especially in the Senate

It sounds like Renzi is ready to leave, but the latest news report seems more optimistic about Conte finding enough support to continue the government without IV.

Ex-premier and centrist Italia Viva (IV) party leader Matteo Renzi said Tuesday Premier Giuseppe Conte was "convinced" he would have enough parliamentary support without IV which was therefore set to join the opposition. "If the premier has taken this line he is clearly convinced he has the numbers an that's OK, it's called parliamentary democracy and we'll go into opposition," said the former leader of the centre-left Democratic Party (PD).
With IV's upcoming defection over the COVID Recovery Plan, Conte needs 18 Senators to make up for the loss of Renzi's party. Observers said he was likely to get them.

https://www.ansa.it/english/news/general_news/2021/01/12/pd-and-m5s-warn-renzis-iv-against-triggering-govt-crisis_a8238adb-797c-4a78-bd5c-010b8b5d4735.html
https://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2021/01/12/conte-convinced-he-has-numbers-iv-to-opposition-renzi_bebb4a2a-126a-4906-8258-455739bf58d6.html

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Sounds like Conte reiterated in his speech today that the government wants a proportional electoral law, so hopefully there can soon be a good agreement on this crucial subject. Renzi and Italia Viva has done their to block it, mainly due to the proposed 5% threshold, but hopefully his role is less important now.

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Mattarella supposedly meeting with Mario Draghi tomorrow at noon. Draghi has been rumored for months if not years as a potential consensus PM, so, you know, something to watch.

So in order for this to pass, I guess M5S will at least have to abstain? There is no majority if both Lega and M5S vote against, and I guess Salvini will vote against?

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Thanks for that!

So you only cast one vote?  And say I wanted to vote Lega on the list but didn't like the FI candidate in my constituency then tough my Lega vote counts towards that FI candidate's total?

That's naff if it's the case.  I'm all for MMP but it should be that you cast two votes - one for the list and one for the FPTP seat.

It's not a MMP system. There is no overall proportionality. It's a mixed system, where 37% of seats are distributed via FPTP and 63% via PR. So the significant share of FPTP seats, mean that the overall outcome can be quite disproportional.

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Is it what's sometimes called "parallel voting"?

Yes, I have seen that term used. It is similar to the Hungarian system; just slightly more proportional as the FPTP share of seats in Hungary is all the way up at 53%.

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M5S members will have an online vote on whether the party should support Draghi. It will take place from 10 January 13.00 to 11 January 13.00.
ANSA writes that most of the party heavyweights have come out in favour of supporting Draghi.

https://www.ansa.it/english/news/2021/02/08/m5s-to-vote-on-draghi-on-feb-10-11_5f28e69e-c087-42ad-bccb-0de48c67ade2.html

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M5S online voters back Draghi 59-41.

Di Battista is leaving the party. We will see how big the split will be

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Happy to see Zingaretti out after the rumours that he wanted to make a deal with Salvini on a horrible majoritarian electoral system. Hopefully some of the pro-PR voices can now help push a good electoral law through