Vive Carter

[Lord Admirale]

[Lord Admirale]

The Rise of Jason Carter
November 29, 2016 - June 20, 2017

Tom Price, a United States Representative, was slated to become President Donald Trump's next Secretary of Health and Human Services and would be subsequently forced to vacate his congressional seat. His district, Georgia’s 6th, had gained national attention in the past election cycle; the President underperformed every Republican candidate before him by at least 10 points or more. This would give a divided, yet eager, Democratic Party, an opportunity to send a message to the President by electing a Democrat in what was once Newt Gingrich’s congressional district. All they needed was someone who was willing to take the risk.

But who would that person be?

The immediate frontrunner for the Democrats was documentary filmmaker Jon Ossoff, a political novice who had grown up in the 6th district.



Ossoff already had the funds in his own pocket to start a strong campaign for Congress, but it didn't take long for the Republican Party to rip into him. One of Jon Ossoff's biggest problems brought forward by the GOP was that his residence was not within the 6th district's boundaries and that he couldn't even vote for himself in the April nonpartisan primary. Despite this, Ossoff managed to secure some high profile endorsements, such as Congressman and civil rights icon John Lewis.

Throughout the early weeks of the campaign, Ossoff seemed to be destined to be the Democratic candidate to potentially flip the 6th district, but that all changed with a very shocking announcement in early February.

The grandson of President Jimmy Carter wished to take the seat.



Jason Carter had been in politics since 2010, however left in 2014 after losing his gubernatorial bid. He had privately been eager to return to politics, and, with the 6th district vacant, saw this as a great opportunity to do so.

Within days, Carter began to dim Ossoff's rising star due to his name recognition and, unlike Ossoff, residence within the 6th district. Carter was endorsed by many prominent Georgian politicians, namely Roy Barnes, Stacey Evans, and most of his colleagues he had served with in the State Senate.

On April 18, Carter was a very happy man.

Georgia's 6th congressional district special election

Jason Carter (D) - 36.1%
Karen Handel (R) - 18.4%
Jon Ossoff (D) - 14.2%
Bob Gray (R) - 10.7%
Dan Moody (R) - 8.8%
Judson Hill (R) - 8.7%
Kurt Wilson (R) - 0.9%
David Abroms (R) - 0.8%
Others - 1.4%

Carter was grateful to have Ossoff endorse, and eventually campaign for, his candidacy. Carter was focused on rallying as many Democratic votes in the 6th district as possible, while also winning over moderate Republicans who had a lack of faith in Donald Trump. For campaigning, Carter would occasionally make appearances with his grandfather, however aside from him, Jason would usually do rallies either by himself or with other politicians from around Georgia.

In June, Handel's situation went from bad to worse when pundits saw Carter as the clear winner in their first and only televised debate, while pointing out that Handel seemed uneasy for most of the night. Carter's lead only grew and grew, however the President himself began working to help Handel defeat Carter.

By June 19th, the eve of election day, the running polls were as followed:

WSB/Landmark Communications
Jason Carter (D) - 52%
Karen Handel (R) - 46%
Undecided - 2%

Trafalgar Group
Jason Carter (D) - 53%
Karen Handel (R) - 47%
Undecided - 0%

CSP Polling
Jason Carter (D) - 54%
Karen Handel (R) - 43%
Undecided - 3%

On June 20th, 2017, Democrats across America were very pleased by what they saw, while the Trump administration was very disappointed in Handel's performance.

Georgia's 6th congressional district special election runoff
✓ Jason Carter (D) - 52.3%
Karen Handel (R) - 47.7%

Carter's victory was mostly due to a high turnout of minority voters, a majority of undecided voters casting their ballots in his name, and cross-party support from moderate Republicans. During his victory speech, Carter stated that he would head to Washington to help every resident of his district and would work against growing partisanship on Capitol Hill. As for Handel, her concession was relatively bitter, negatively comparing Jason to his grandfather's performance as President.

[Lord Admirale]

The Beginning of the Storm

2018 was looking bleaker and bleaker for the Republican Party, beginning with Carter's victory in Georgia's 6th district. Polls indicated that Congress's approval ratings were almost dipping into single-digits, while the President's were slumping to the high 20s. Tax reform had failed in the Senate in early December, and a sexual assault scandal had completely destroyed Roy Moore's campaign for Jeff Sessions' old seat, causing what seemed impossible nearly a month before the election.

A Democrat was elected the junior U.S. Senator from Alabama.

United States Senate special election in Alabama, 2017
✓ Doug Jones (D) - 50.2%
Roy Moore (R) - 39.5%
Write-ins - 10.5%

The Senate was now 51-49, only two seats separated the Democrats from a majority. This already sounded bad for the Republican Party as Dean Heller and Kelli Ward trailed in Nevada and Arizona, meaning if the Republicans were unable to gain a seat elsewhere, the Democrats would take the Senate. If this sounded bad enough, the situation in the House of Representatives made this look wonderful in comparison.

In March of 2018, Democrat Conor Lamb won a special election in Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district, a district encompassing the suburbs of Pittsburgh.

Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district special election
✓ Conor Lamb (D) - 51.8%
Rick Saccone (R) - 48.2%

Shortly after, in June, Democrat Ed Albertson managed to defeat Republican Carol O'Brien for Ohio's 12th congressional district.

Ohio's 12th congressional district special election
✓ Ed Albertson (D) - 50.4%
Carol O'Brien (R) - 49.6%

It became much more clear that Paul Ryan's speakership would soon be terminated by voters in November, and the Democratic Party was making its way back into power.

[Lord Admirale]

The 2018 Midterms
Gubernatorial Races

Democratic Party - 25 seats (+9)
Republican Party - 24 seats (-9)
Independent - 1 seat (-)

In their electoral wave, the Democrats managed to take over 9 governorships: Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, New Mexico, and Wisconsin, giving them executive control of 25 states. This was a huge win for Democrats as they now gained control half of the nation's governorships.

The biggest disappointment for the Democrats was Maryland, where the Republican was reelected with just less than 1% of the popular vote, but these disappointments were overshadowed by wins in deep Republican states such as Georgia and Kansas.

Results

Alabama
✓ Kay Ivey (R) (inc.) - 59.4%
Walt Maddox (D) - 38.4%

Alaska
✓ Bill Walker (I) (inc.) - 48.3%
Joe Miller (R) - 45.5%

Arizona
✓ Doug Ducey (R) (inc.) - 51.9%
Steve Farley (D) - 46.0%

California
✓ Gavin Newsom (D) - 63.3%
John Chiang (D) - 36.7%

Colorado
✓ Jared Polis (D) - 54.8%
Tom Tancredo (R) - 44.9%

Connecticut (R+1)
✓ David M. Walker (R) - 49.5%
Chris Mattei (D) - 48.2%

Florida (D+1)
✓ Gwen Graham (D) - 50.2%
Adam Putnam (R) - 47.9%

Georgia (D+1)
✓ Stacey Evans (D) - 50.6%
Casey Cagle (R) - 47.1%

Hawaii
✓ Colleen Hanabusa (D) - 59.3%
Andria Tupola (R) - 38.5%

Idaho
✓ Raul Labrador (R) - 58.7%
Troy Minton (D) - 34.0%

Illinois (D+1)
✓ J. B. Pritzker (D) - 50.1%
Bruce Rauner (R) (inc.) - 48.3%

Iowa
✓ Kim Reynolds (R) (inc.) - 51.0%
Nate Boulton (D) - 45.7%

Kansas (D+1)
✓ Josh Svaty (D) - 48.2%
Jeff Colyer (R) (inc.) - 44.4%
Greg Orman (I) - 7.0%

Maine (D+1)
✓ Matthew Dunlap (D) - 46.3%
Mary Mayhew (R) - 38.3%
Terry Hayes (I) - 14.9%

Maryland
✓ Larry Hogan (R) (inc.) - 48.9%
Ben Jealous (D) - 48.5%

Massachusetts
✓ Charlie Baker (R) (inc.) - 57.9%
Setti Warren (D) - 40.5%

Michigan (D+1)
✓ Gretchen Whitmer (D) - 53.0%
Bill Schuette (R) - 45.1%

Minnesota
✓ Tim Walz (D) - 56.8%
Jeff Johnson (R) - 42.8%

Nebraska
✓ Pete Ricketts (R) (inc.) - 56.4%
Bob Krist (I) - 42.2%

Nevada
✓ Adam Laxalt (R) - 52.8%
Steve Sisolak (D) - 45.2%

New Hampshire (D+1)
✓ Steve Marchand (D) - 49.7%
Chris Sununu (R) (inc.) - 48.4%

New Mexico (D+1)
✓ Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) - 55.1%
Steve Pearce (R) - 43.5%

New York
✓ Andrew Cuomo (D) (inc.) - 61.9%
Marc Molinaro (R) - 38.0%

Ohio
✓ Richard Cordray (D) - 49.1%
Mike DeWine (R) - 48.5%

Oklahoma
✓ Todd Lamb (R) - 55.0%
Drew Edmondson (D) - 43.7%

Oregon
✓ Kate Brown (D) (inc.) - 54.2%
Greg Wooldridge (R) - 45.8%

Pennsylvania
✓ Tom Wolf (D) (inc.) - 55.2%
Scott Wagner (R) - 42.8%

Rhode Island
✓ Gina Raimondo (D) (inc.) - 53.7%
Allan Fung (R) - 46.6%

South Carolina
✓ Henry McMaster (R) (inc.) - 54.6%
James Smith (D) - 45.0%

South Dakota
✓ Kristie Noem (R) - 67.3%
Billie Sutton (D) - 31.8%

Tennessee
✓ Diane Black (R) - 54.2%
Karl Dean (D) - 44.9%

Texas
✓ Greg Abbott (R) (inc.) - 66.2%
Lupe Valdez (D) - 32.7%

Vermont
✓ Phil Scott (R) (inc.) - 56.2%
James Ehlers (D) - 41.1%

Wisconsin (D+1)
✓ Kathleen Vinehout (D) - 49.5%
Scott Walker (R) (inc.) - 48.3%

Wyoming
✓ Steve Harshman (R) - 62.6%
Mary Throne (D) - 36.6%

[Lord Admirale]

The 2018 Midterms
Senate races

Democratic Party - 52 seats (+3)
Republican Party - 48 seats (-3)

Along with securing a majority of governorships across the country, the Democrats were blessed with gaining a 52 seat majority in the United States, picking up the seats in Arizona, Nevada, and, by upset, Texas. Texas was the most surprising, yet sweetest, victory for Democrats across America as 2016 presidential candidate Ted Cruz was defeated by Congressman Beto O'Rourke. Many pundits owe Cruz's defeat to a bitter Senate primary, along with his sharp rift between him and the President back in 2016 during the presidential campaign.

Minority-turned-Majority Leader Chuck Schumer hailed the majority as a "victory for the American people and a strong message to the President," and said that his fellow Democrats would hold a firm line against the Trump administration. In contrast, Senator Mitch McConnell announced that he would step down from his post as Republican leader in the 116th United States Congress and would retire by 2021. Several weeks following McConnell's announcement, John Barrasso was selected to become the Senate Republican Leader.

Results

Arizona (D+1)
✓ Kyrsten Sinema (D) - 52.6%
Kelli Ward (R) - 41.1%

California
✓ Dianne Feinstein (D) (inc.) - 53.9%
Kevin de León (D) - 46.1%

Connecticut
✓ Chris Murphy (D) (inc.) - 65.2%
Dominic Rapini (R) - 34.7%

Delaware
✓ Tom Carper (D) (inc.) - 59.6%
Chuck Boyce (R) - 39.5%

Florida
✓ Bill Nelson (D) (inc.) - 55.7%
David Jolly (R) - 44.1%

Hawaii
✓ Mazie Hirono (D) (inc.) - 97.6%

Indiana
✓ Joe Donnelly (D) (inc.) - 50.2%
Todd Rotika (R) - 49.0%

Maine
✓ Angus King (I) (inc.) - 54.2%
Eric Brakey (R) - 40.2%
Zak Ringelstein (D) - 4.7%

Maryland
✓ Ben Cardin (D) (inc.) - 61.8%
Sam Faddis (R) - 37.4%

Massachusetts
✓ Elizabeth Warren (D) (inc.) - 63.3%
Geoff Diehl (R) - 35.9%

Michigan
✓ Debbie Stabenow (D) (inc.) - 54.2%
John James (R) - 45.7%

Minnesota
✓ Amy Klobuchar (D) (inc.) - 68.4%
Jim Newberger (R) - 30.5%

Mississippi
✓ Roger Wicker (R) (inc.) - 59.1%
Brandon Presley (D) - 38.5%

Missouri
✓ Claire McCaskill (D) (inc.) - 49.9%
Josh Hawley (R) - 49.0%

Montana
✓ Jon Tester (D) (inc.) - 50.7%
Matt Rosendale (R) - 48.6%

Nebraska
✓ Deb Fischer (R) (inc.) - 60.1%
Jane Raybould (D) - 38.8%

Nevada (D+1)
✓ Jacky Rosen (D) - 49.1%
Dean Heller (R) (inc.) - 48.6%

New Jersey
✓ Bob Menendez (D) (inc.) - 55.9%
Alison Littell McHose (R) - 43.6%

New Mexico
✓ Martin Heinrich (D) (inc.) - 60.2%
Mick Rich (R) - 37.3%

New York
✓ Kirsten Gillibrand (D) (inc.) - 65.8%
Chris Gibson (R) - 33.5%

North Dakota
✓ Heidi Heitkamp (D) (inc.) - 51.2%
Kevin Cramer (R) - 47.0%

Ohio
✓ Sherrod Brown (D) (inc.) - 52.9%
Josh Mandel (R) - 45.1%

Pennsylvania
✓ Bob Casey, Jr. (D) (inc.) - 57.4%
Lou Barletta (R) - 42.8%

Rhode Island
✓ Sheldon Whitehouse (D) (inc.) - 67.5%
Robert Nardolillo (R) - 31.8%

Tennessee
✓ Marsha Blackburn (R) - 53.0%
James Mackler (D) - 45.7%

Texas (D+1)
✓ Beto O'Rourke (D) - 49.5%
Ted Cruz (R) (inc.) - 48.5%

Utah
✓ Mitt Romney (R) - 73.7%
Jenny Wilson (D) - 24.0%

Vermont
✓ Bernie Sanders (I) (inc.) - 71.6%
Scott Milne (R) - 27.4%

Virginia
✓ Tim Kaine (D) (inc.) - 56.8%
Corey Stewart (R) - 43.5%

Washington
✓ Patty Murray (D) (inc.) - 64.0%
Chris Vance (R) - 32.7%

West Virginia
✓ Joe Manchin (D) (inc.) - 58.5%
Patrick Morrisey (R) - 39.9%

Wisconsin
✓ Tammy Baldwin (D) (inc.) - 54.1%
Leah Vukmir (R) - 44.2%

Wyoming
✓ John Barrasso (R) (inc.) - 71.9%
Charlie Hardy (D) - 27.9%

(Next part is the House of Representatives... buckle up!)

[Lord Admirale]

Is Hatch still the Senator in Utah?

Nope, he decides to retire and Mittens takes his place.

[Lord Admirale]

The 2018 Midterms
House races


Democratic Party - 265 seats (+68)
Republican Party - 170 seats (-68)

On top of taking a majority of governorships and retaking the Senate, the Democrats made a massive sweep of the House of Representatives, ending the 8 year long Republican reign of the House. The Democrats owed many of their gains to a shift in suburban voters who were dissatisfied and angry with the Trump administration, along with high minority turnout in states such as California.

In her victory speech, Speaker-elect Nancy Pelosi said that this was a great day for the American people and, like Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the results were a strong message to President Trump and their actions in the past two years.

Results (Part I)

Alabama
1. Bradley Byrne (R)
2. Martha Roby (R)
3. Mike Rogers (R)
4. Robert Aderholt (R)
5. Mo Brooks (R)
6. Gary Palmer (R)
7. Terri Sewell (D)

Alaska
At-large. Don Young (R)

Arizona (D+1)
1. Tom O'Halleran (D)
2. Matt Heinz (D)
3. Raúl Grijalva (D)
4. Paul Gosar (R)
5. Andy Biggs (R)
6. David Schweikert (R)
7. Ruben Gallego (D)
8. Trent Franks (R)
9. Greg Stanton (D)

Arkansas (D+1)
1. Rick Crawford (R)
2. Gwen Combs (D)
3. Steve Womack (R)
4. Bruce Westerman (R)

California (D+9)
1. Doug LaMalfa (R)
2. Jared Huffman (D)
3. John Garamendi (D)
4. Tom McClintock (R)
5. Mike Thompson (D)
6. Doris Matsui (D)
7. Ami Bera (D)
8. Paul Cook (R)
9. Jerry McNerney (D)
10. Virginia Madueño (D)
11. Mark DeSaulnier (D)
12. Nancy Pelosi (D)
13. Barbara Lee (D)
14. Jackie Speier (D)
15. Eric Swalwell (D)
16. Jim Costa (D)
17. Ro Khanna (D)
18. Anna Eshoo (D)
19. Zoe Lofgren (D)
20. Jimmy Panetta (D)
21. Emilio Huerta (D)
22. Andrew Janz (D)
23. Kevin McCarthy (R)
24. Salud Carbajal (D)
25. Bryan Caforio (D)
26. Julia Brownley (D)
27. Judy Chu (D)
28. Adam Schiff (D)
29. Tony Cárdenas (D)
30. Brad Sherman (D)
31. Pete Aguilar (D)
32. Grace Napolitano (D)
33. Ted Lieu (D)
34. Jimmy Gomez (D)
35. Norma Torres (D)
36. Raul Ruiz (D)
37. Karen Bass (D)
38. Linda Sánchez (D)
39. Phil Janowicz (D)
40. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)
41. Mark Takano (D)
42. Julia Peacock (D)
43. Maxine Waters (D)
44. Nanette Barragán (D)
45. Dave Min (D)
46. Lou Correa (D)
47. Alan Lowenthal (D)
48. Harley Rouda (D)
49. Doug Applegate (D)
50. Duncan D. Hunter (R)
51. Juan Vargas (D)
52. Scott Peters (D)
53. Susan Davis (D)

Colorado (D+2)
1. Diana DeGette (D)
2. Kristopher Larsen (D)
3. Diane Mitsch Bush (D)
4. Ken Buck (R)
5. Doug Lamborn (R)
6. Levi Tillemann (D)
7. Ed Perlmutter (D)

Connecticut
1. John Larson (D)
2. Joe Courtney (D)
3. Rosa DeLauro (D)
4. Jim Himes (D)
5. Elizabeth Esty (D)

Delaware
At-large. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)

Florida (D+4)
1. Matt Gaetz (R)
2. Neal Dunn (R)
3. Ted Yoho (R)
4. John Rutherford (R)
5. Al Lawson (D)
6. Ron DeSantis (R)
7. Stephanie Murphy (D)
8. Bill Posey (D)
9. Darren Soto (D)
10. Val Demings (D)
11. Dan Webster (R)
12. Gus Bilirakis (R)
13. Charlie Crist (D)
14. Kathy Castor (D)
15. Ray Peña (D)
16. Vern Buchanan (R)
17. Tom Rooney (R)
18. Patrick Murphy (D)
19. Francis Rooney (R)
20. Alcee Hastings (D)
21. Lois Frankel (D)
22. Ted Deutch (D)
23. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)
24. Frederica Wilson (D)
25. Mario Díaz-Balart (R)
26. Steven Machat (D)
27. José Javier Rodríguez (D)

Georgia (D+1)
1. Buddy Carter (R)
2. Sanford Bishop (D)
3. Drew Ferguson (R)
4. Hank Johnson (D)
5. John Lewis (D)
6. Jason Carter (D)
7. Steve Reilly (D)
8. Austin Scott (R)
9. Doug Collins (R)
10. Jody Hice (R)
11. Barry Loudermilk (R)
12. Rick Allen (R)
13. David Scott (D)
14. Tom Graves (R)

Hawaii
1. Kaniela Ing (D)
2. Tulsi Gabbard (D)

Idaho
1. Russ Fulcher (R)
2. Mike Simpson (R)

Illinois (D+4)
1. Bobby Rush (D)
2. Robin Kelly (D)
3. Dan Lipinski (D)
4. Luis Gutierrez (D)
5. Mike Quigley (D)
6. Becky Anderson Wilkins (D)
7. Danny Davis (D)
8. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D)
9. Jan Schakowsky (D)
10. Brad Schneider (D)
11. Bill Foster (D)
12. Brendan Kelly (D)
13. Erik Jones (D)
14. Matt Brolley (D)
15. John Shimkus (R)
16. Adam Kinzinger (R)
17. Cheri Bustos (D)
18. Darin LaHood (R)

Indiana
1. Pete Visclosky (D)
2. Jackie Walorski (R)
3. Jim Banks (R)
4. Diego Morales (R)
5. Susan Brooks (R)
6. Jonathan M. Lamb (R)
7. Andre Carson (D)
8. Larry Buschon (R)
9. Trey Hollingsworth (R)

Iowa (D+2)
1. Abby Finkenauer (D)
2. Dave Loebsack (D)
3. Theresa Greenfield (D)
4. Steve King (R)

Kansas (D+1)
1. Roger Marshall (R)
2. Steve Fitzgerald (R)
3. Jay Sidie (D)
4. Ron Estes (R)

Kentucky (D+1)
1. James Comer (R)
2. Brett Guthrie (R)
3. John Yarmuth (D)
4. Thomas Massie (R)
5. Hal Rogers (R)
6. Amy McGrath (D)

Louisiana
1. Steve Scalise (R)
2. Cedric Richmond (D)
3. Clay Higgins (R)
4. Mike Johnson (R)
5. Ralph Abraham (R)
6. Garret Graves (R)

[Lord Admirale]

The Midterms 2018
House elections

Results (Part II)

Maine (D+1)
1. Chellie Pingree (D)
2. Jared Golden (D)

Maryland
1. Andy Harris (R)
2. Dutch Ruppersberger (D)
3. John Sarbanes (D)
4. Anthony G. Brown (D)
5. Steny Hoyer (D)
6. Roger Manno (D)
7. Elijah Cummings (D)
8. Jamie Raskin (D)

Massachusetts
1. Richard Neal (D)
2. Jim McGovern (D)
3. Steve Kerrigan (D)
4. Joe Kennedy III (D)
5. Katherine Clark (D)
6. Seth Moulton (D)
7. Mike Capuano (D)
8. Stephen Lynch (D)
9. Bill Keating (D)

Michigan (D+4)
1. Jack Bergman (R)
2. Bill Huizenga (R)
3. Justin Amash (R)
4. John Moolenaar (R)
5. Dan Kildee (D)
6. George Franklin (D)
7. Gretchen Driskell (D)
8. Elissa Slotkin (D)
9. Sander Levin (D)
10. Paul Mitchell (R)
11. Tim Greimel (D)
12. Debbie Dingell (D)
13. Bert Johnson (D)
14. Brenda Lawrence (D)

Minnesota (D+2)
1. Vicki Jensen (D)
2. Angie Craig (D)
3. Adam Jennings (D)
4. Betty McCollum (D)
5. Keith Ellison (D)
6. Tom Emmer (R)
7. Collin Peterson (D)
8. Rick Nolan (D)

Mississippi
1. Trent Kelly (R)
2. Bennie Thompson (D)
3. Gregg Harper (R)
4. Steven Palazzo (R)

Missouri
1. Lacy Clay (D)
2. Ann Wagner (R)
3. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R)
4. Vicky Hartzler (R)
5. Emanuel Cleaver (D)
6. Sam Graves (R)
7. Billy Long (R)
8. Jason Smith (R)

Montana (D+1)
At-large. Tom Woods (D)

Nebraska (D+1)
1. Jeff Fortenberry (R)
2. Brad Ashford (D)
3. Adrian Smith (R)

Nevada (D+1)
1. Dina Titus (D)
2. Clint Koble (D)
3. Susie Lee (D)
4. Ruben Kihuen (D)

New Hampshire
1. Chris Pappas (D)
2. Ann Kuster (D)

New Jersey (D+4)
1. Donald Norcross (D)
2. Tanzie Youngblood (D)
3. Andy Kim (D)
4. Chris Smith (R)
5. Josh Gottheimer (D)
6. Frank Pallone (D)
7. Tom Malinowski (D)
8. Albio Sires (D)
9. Bill Pascrell (D)
10. Donald Payne (D)
11. Mikie Sherrill (D)
12. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)

New Mexico (D+1)
1. Damon Martinez (D)
2. David Baake (D)
3. Ben Ray Luján (D)

New York (D+6)
1. Kate Browning (D)
2. Peter King (R)
3. Tom Suozzi (D)
4. Kathleen Rice (D)
5. Gregory Meeks (D)
6. Grace Meng (D)
7. Nydia Velázquez (D)
8. Hakeem Jeffries (D)
9. Yvette Clarke (D)
10. Jerry Nadler (D)
11. Boyd Melson (D)
12. Carolyn Maloney (D)
13. Adriano Espaillat (D)
14. Joe Crowley (D)
15. José Serrano (D)
16. Eliot Engel (D)
17. Chelsea Clinton (D)
18. Sean Maloney (D)
19. Gareth Rhodes (D)
20. Paul Tonko (D)
21. Elise Stefanik (R)
22. Anthony Brindisi (D)
23. J.G. Hertzler (D)
24. Dana Balter (D)
25. Louise Slaughter (D)
26. Brian Higgins (D)
27. Chris Collins (R)

North Carolina (D+2)
1. G. K. Butterfield (D)
2. George Holding (R)
3. Walter Jones (R)
4. David Price (D)
5. Virginia Foxx (R)
6. Mark Walker (R)
7. David Rouzer (R)
8. Richard Hudson (R)
9. Dan McCready (D)
10. Patrick McHenry (R)
11. Mark Meadows (R)
12. Alma Adams (D)
13. Adam Coker (D)

North Dakota
At-large. Larry Bellew (R)

Ohio (D+4)
1. Robert Barr (D)
2. Brad Wenstrup (R)
3. Joyce Beatty (D)
4. Jim Jordan (R)
5. Bob Latta (R)
6. Bill Johnson (R)
7. Bob Gibbs (R)
8. Warren Davidson (R)
9. Marcy Kaptur (D)
10. Michael Milisits (D)
11. Marcia Fudge (D)
12. Ed Albertson (D)
13. Tim Ryan (D)
14. Betsy Rader (D)
15. Steve Stivers (R)
16. Anthony Gonzalez (R)

Oklahoma
1. Nathan Dahm (R)
2. Markwayne Mullin (R)
3. Frank Lucas (R)
4. Tom Cole (R)
5. Steve Russell (R)

Oregon
1. Suzanne Bonamici (D)
2. Greg Walden (R)
3. Earl Blumenauer (D)
4. Peter DeFazio (D)
5. Kurt Schrader (D)

Pennsylvania (D+4)
1. Bob Brady (D)
2. Dwight Evans (D)
3. Mike Kelly (R)
4. Scott Perry (R)
5. Glenn Thompson (R)
6. Chrissy Houlahan (D)
7. Daylin Leach (D)
8. Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
9. Bill Shuster (R)
10. Tom Marino (R)
11. Dan Meuser
12. Keith Rothfus (R)
13. Brendan Boyle (D)
14. Mike Doyle (D)
15. Bill Leiner (R)
16. Christina Hartman (D)
17. Matt Cartwright (D)
18. Conor Lamb (D)

Rhode Island
1. David Cicilline (D)
2. James Langevin (D)

South Carolina (D+1)
1. Mark Sanford (R)
2. Joe Wilson (R)
3. Jeff Duncan (R)
4. Trey Gowdy (R)
5. Archie Parnell (D)
6. Jim Clyburn (D)
7. Tom Rice (R)

South Dakota
At-large. Shantel Krebs (R)

Tennessee
1. Phil Roe (R)
2. Tim Burchett (R)
3. Chuck Fleischmann (R)
4. Scott DesJarlais (R)
5. Jim Cooper (D)
6. John W. Rose (R)
7. Mark E. Green (R)
8. David Kustoff (R)
9. Steve Cohen (D)

[Lord Admirale]

The 2018 Midterms
House elections

Results (Part III)

Texas (D+4)
1. Louie Gohmert (R)
2. Kevin Roberts (R)
3. Van Taylor (R)
4. John Ratcliffe (R)
5. Kenneth Sheets (R)
6. Jana Lynne Sanchez (D)
7. James Cargas (D)
8. Kevin Brady (R)
9. Al Green (D)
10. Michael McCaul (R)
11. Mike Conaway (R)
12. Kay Granger (R)
13. Mac Thornberry (R)
14. Randy Weber (R)
15. Vicente González (D)
16. Veronica Escobar (D)
17. Bill Flores (R)
18. Sheila Jackson Lee (D)
19. Jodey Arrington (R)
20. Joaquín Castro (D)
21. Susan Narvaiz (R)
22. Pete Olson (R)
23. Jay Hulings (D)
24. Kenny Merchant (R)
25. Roger Williams (R)
26. Michael Burgess (R)
27. Blake Farenthold (R)
28. Henry Cuellar (D)
29. Sylvia Garcia (D)
30. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)
31. John Carter (R)
32. Colin Allred (D)
33. Marc Veasey (D)
34. Filemon Vela Jr. (D)
35. Lloyd Doggett (D)
36. Brian Babin (R)

Utah
1. Rob Bishop (R)
2. Chris Stewart (R)
3. John Curtis (R)
4. Mia Love (R)

Vermont
At-large. Peter Welch (D)

Virginia (D+4)
1. Rob Wittman (R)
2. Shaun Brown (D)
3. Bobby Scott (D)
4. Donald McEachin (D)
5. Leslie Cockburn (D)
6. Cynthia Dunbar (R)
7. Dan Ward (D)
8. Don Beyer (D)
9. Morgan Griffith (R)
10. Jennifer Wexton (D)
11. Gerry Connolly (D)

Washington (D+2)
1. Suzan DelBene (D)
2. Rick Larsen (D)
3. Peter Harrison (D)
4. Dan Newhouse (R)
5. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)
6. Derek Kilmer (D)
7. Pramila Jayapal (D)
8. Jason Rittereiser (D)
9. Adam Smith (D)
10. Denny Heck (D)

West Virginia (D+1)
1. David McKinley (R)
2. Alex Mooney (R)
3. Richard Ojeda (D)

Wisconsin
1. Paul Ryan (R)
2. Mark Pocan (D)
3. Ron Kind (D)
4. Gwen Moore (D)
5. Jim Sensenbrenner (R)
6. Glenn Grothman (R)
7. Sean Duffy (R)
8. Mike Gallagher (R)

Wyoming
At-large. Liz Cheney (R)

[Lord Admirale]

Twilight of the Trump Administration

With the Democrats forcing themselves back into Washington and the President's approval ratings sinking to the mid to low 20s, many in the Trump Administration saw the writing on the wall.

In late January, the final nails in the coffin of Donald Trump's presidency were being hammered in as revelations came forward about greater Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, the President sharing intelligence information with Russian diplomats, and the president making deals to aide his business. News of this caused State Secretary Rex Tillerson to resign his post on February 1st. Shortly after, Tillerson publicly lambasted the Trump Administration, calling the President "incompetent and idiotic." This was, of course, followed up by the President lambasting Tillerson via Twitter.

The deepening scandals were causing Republican leaders to worry about 2020, which would hold the potential of not only losing the White House, but deepening the Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. On February 3rd, Senate Minority Leader John Barrasso (R-WY) said that the President's actions and disregard for classified materials is "beyond disturbing" and that action must be taken. Just like with former State Secretary Tillerson, Trump lambasted Barrasso on Twitter as well.

During all of February, both Democrats and Republicans spoke about the potential for impeachment of the President with revelations of how far his scandals had gone.

On March 2nd, Trump issued a brief address to the nation, saying he has grown frustrated with what has happened in Washington, his scandals, and at the end, concluded with this:

"Effective March 3rd, 2019, I will resign the Presidency of the United States at noon." were words that would give Republicans a reason to be optimistic political futures.

As for the Democrats, they too were relieved by President Trump's departure from the White House, however there was a growing fear about what kind of President Mike Pence would be. Some Democrats feared that Pence would be a much stronger and competent president compared to former President Trump, and would have the potential to win in 2020.

Pence knew that Trump had damaged the Republican Party's brand, but also knew that with his experience in governing, he could turn the ship around.

[Lord Admirale]

Dawn of the Pence Administration

On March 3, 2019, Vice President Mike Pence took the oath of office as President of the United States. During a brief ceremony, the President announced that he would seek to undo the gridlock in Washington and would meet with House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Schumer to seek a compromise on issues regarding trade, immigration, and healthcare. Pence, referencing his predecessor's issues with Russian electoral interference, said that he would also work with Congress to seek greater protections of the electoral process in the United States.

Pence was heavily criticized for issuing a pardon for former President Trump, however despite that, his approval ratings were already profoundly better than his predecessor's were when he took office.

Averaged approval ratings of President Mike Pence
Approve - 37%
Disapprove - 40%
Uncertain - 23%

Privately, Pence was aiming to end most of "Trumpism" and running the White House as a traditional conservative, somewhat similar to the Presidency of George W. Bush. However, Pence knew he'd have to keep much of Trump's base to have a shot at winning the upcoming presidential election. To do so, Pence's main objective would be to keep former President Trump's views on trade in his agenda. However, many of the alt-right were refusing to follow along with President Pence.

Alex Jones, a far-right conspiracy theorist who was a staunch supporter of President Trump, repeatedly stated that the United States was undergoing a "globalist coup" and that Pence would serve as a "puppet of George Soros and the elite." Steve Bannon, a former Trump advisor, stated that Pence, Barrasso, and Ryan threatened Trump to vacate the presidency and called President Pence an "establishment snake."

Establishment and moderate Republicans said that they were optimistic about the Pence Presidency. Former Ohio Governor John Kasich said "[Pence] is a very competent and smart individual, and I know he'll do a good job as President." In the Senate, Senator and 2008 presidential nominee John McCain said he was grateful for Trump's departure and Pence's arrival in the White House.

But how well would President Pence perform in the next two years? Could he distance himself from the disasters of his predecessor? Or would former President Trump loom over the new president and crash his administration?

[Lord Admirale]

A 40-42 approval for the extreme-rightist vice president of the recently-resigned President who was polling in his 20s..

I might tweak it a bit, but Pence is much more favorable than Trump in 2018-19.

[Lord Admirale]

Mike Pence's First Year in Office

President Pence's first year in office would determine if he could bring himself to win reelection in 2020, but it would be an uphill fight for the President. Donald Trump had heavily damaged the Republican Party nationwide, and being Trump's right hand man for two years, it would be hard for Pence to distance himself from the failed Trump Administration.

In May, Pence announced that he would appoint former Governor Brian Sandoval as his Vice President, and on May 24, 2019, Brian Sandoval was sworn in as the 49th Vice President of the United States. Pundits believed that Pence was picking Sandoval to help with minority voters, swing voters, and the “never Trump” Republicans, who would all be very crucial for Pence’s 2020 bid.

Pence continued to renegotiate NAFTA, while also fighting to keep the Tax Reform of 2017 away from the Democrats' grip. Pence also began long negotiations with Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Schumer on a compromise on immigration. In November 2019, Pence signed the American Immigration Enforcement and Reform Act of 2019 (AIERA) into law, allocating for funds to strengthen the U.S.-Mexican border while also allowing the most of the policies of DACA to take effect.

Despite being stuck as a “lame duck” president, President Pence’s approval ratings were considerably higher than his predecessor’s ever were.

Averaged approval ratings of President Mike Pence
Approve - 52%
Disapprove - 44%
Uncertain - 4%

[Lord Admirale]

2019 Gubernatorial Races

Democratic Party - 25 seats (-)
Republican Party - 24 seats (-)
Independent - 1 seat (-)

In 2019, the governorships of Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi remained unchanged. Incumbents Matt Bevin (R-KY) and John Bel Edwards (D-LA) were reelected to another term, while Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves (R-MS) was elected to succeed term-limited governor Phil Bryant (R-MS).

Kentucky
✓ Matt Bevin (R) (inc.) - 55.2%
Jim Gray (D) - 42.6%

Louisiana
✓ John Bel Edwards (D) (inc.) - 60.3%
Jeff Landry (R) - 12.5%
Garret Graves (R) - 12.4%
Lance Harris (R) - 7.8%
Sharon Hewitt (R) - 5.1%
Others - 1.9%

Mississippi
✓ Tate Reeves (R) - 58.9%
David Blount (D) - 40.0%

[Lord Admirale]

What will become of Jim Hood?

He got reelected in 2019 for AG, but you'll see...

[Lord Admirale]

The 2020 Democratic Primaries
Part I

Between February and July of 2019, fourteen prominent Democrats announced their candidacies for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States. These were, in order of declaration, former Governor Deval Patrick (February 2, 2019), former Governor Martin O'Malley (February 5, 2019), former Governor Lincoln Chafee (March 16, 2019), Congressman Seth Moulton (March 31, 2019), Senator Cory Booker (April 7, 2019), Governor Andrew Cuomo (April 30, 2019), Senator Kamala Harris (May 1, 2019), Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (May 17, 2019), Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (May 20, 2019), Senator Sherrod Brown (June 1, 2019), former Governor John Hickenlooper (June 6, 2019), Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (June 6, 2019), Businessman Tom Steyer (June 16, 2019), and Senator Amy Klobuchar (July 5, 2019). Former Congressman John Delaney had declared his candidacy in 2017.

Prior and during all of these Democrats declaring their candidacies, most were paying attention to two huge potential contenders: Former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders. Biden had seriously considered a presidential bid between 2017 and 2019, but ultimately decided against it, citing his age and wishing to be with his family. Sanders also stated that his age was a factor, but also said there were "many true progressives in this race" and specifically said that Congresswoman Gabbard and Senator Brown would make great presidents.

Another potential candidate that did not run was Congressman Jason Carter, who had remained in the public spotlight following his 2017 victory, but Carter said that he would forgo a bid for President in 2020 and instead opted to run for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican David Perdue.

During the months leading up to the Iowa caucuses, the field became increasingly dominated by Senator Kamala Harris, Senator Sherrod Brown, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, and Governor Andrew Cuomo. Between August and February, three candidates dropped out of the race, former Governor John Hickenlooper (October 2, 2019), former Governor Lincoln Chafee (October 29, 2019), and Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (December 13, 2019).

Before everyone knew it, the Iowa caucuses came.

2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses
✓ Sherrod Brown - 22.4% (+10 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 20.1% (+9 delegates)
Amy Klobuchar - 15.8% (+6 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 15.5% (+6 delegates)
Cory Booker - 8.3% (+3 delegates)
Andrew Cuomo - 7.0% (+3 delegates)
Deval Patrick - 5.9% (+2 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 3.1% (+2 delegates)
Tom Steyer - 0.9% (+1 delegate)
Martin O'Malley - 0.4% (+1 delegate)
Seth Moulton - 0.3% (+1 delegate)
Others - 0.2%
John Delaney - 0.1% (-)

Shortly after the results and Sherrod Brown's subsequent victory speech, three more candidates dropped out: Senator Amy Klobuchar, former Governor Martin O'Malley, and former Congressman John Delaney. With nine major candidates left in the race, the race for New Hampshire was on.

2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary
✓ Kirsten Gillibrand - 29.0% (+7 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 21.8% (+5 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 20.7% (+5 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 14.6% (+4 delegates)
Andrew Cuomo - 6.2% (+1 delegate)
Cory Booker - 4.5% (+1 delegate)
Deval Patrick - 2.4% (+1 delegate)
Seth Moulton - 0.5% (-)
Tom Steyer - 0.2% (-)
Others - 0.1%

After Gillibrand's wider-than-expected victory, Governor Andrew Cuomo, Senator Cory Booker, former Governor Deval Patrick, and Congressman Seth Moulton suspended their campaigns. Many pundits believe that Gillibrand's wide victory was attributed to a split in voters who supported Senator Sanders' campaign in 2016 between Senator Brown and Congresswoman Gabbard.

With only five major candidates left in the race, the debates leading up to Nevada became increasingly bitter and heated. A six minute exchange between Senators Harris and Brown was considered one of the most vicious moments of the primary to that date, while a major gaffe by Gillibrand just days before the Nevada caucuses caused her polling numbers to tank.

2020 Nevada Democratic caucuses
✓ Kamala Harris - 40.1% (+15 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 32.6% (+10 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 13.4% (+5 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 13.0% (+5 delegates)
Tom Steyer - 0.8% (-)
Others - 0.1%

During the last week of February, the five Democratic candidates pushed onto South Carolina, where winning over minorities would be absolutely crucial for victory. However, Kamala Harris had earned backing from Congressman Archie Parnell and House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, giving her a strong advantage over the other Democrats.

2020 South Carolina Democratic primary
✓ Kamala Harris - 62.5% (+33 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 22.6% (+13 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 11.9% (+6 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 2.5% (+1 delegates)
Tom Steyer - 0.4% (-)
Others - 0.1%

Kamala Harris had secured a strong victory in the Palmetto State. Shortly after her victory, businessman Tom Steyer had finally dropped out of the race.

[Lord Admirale]

Why is there a picture of Mary Landrieu in the image (top row, third from left)?

That's Kirsten Gillibrand

[Lord Admirale]

The 2020 Democratic Primaries
Part II

In just one month, a field of fifteen candidates was narrowed down to just four: Senator Sherrod Brown, Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, Senator Kamala Harris, and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. In a majority of polls, Senators Brown and Harris were jockeying for first place, with Gillibrand behind the two, and Congresswoman Gabbard trailing. Despite not holding a solid lead in polls, Senator Harris had nearly a majority of the superdelegates, giving her a wider lead over her opponents in the primary.

All the candidates engaged in significantly more fiery and heated debates as Super Tuesday came closer and closer. Gillibrand, unfortunately for her, found herself unable to recover in polls, and continuously lagged behind in nearly every contest. Gabbard also trailed most of the candidates, however she put most of her efforts into American Samoa and Vermont, both of which involved her being competitive. Soon enough, the results came in.

Alabama
✓ Kamala Harris - 75.9% (+42 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand  - 10.2% (+5 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 8.2% (+4 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 5.7% (+2 delegates)

American Samoa
✓ Kamala Harris - 59.4% (+3 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 20.3% (+1 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 10.4% (+1 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 9.9% (+1 delegates)

Arkansas
✓ Sherrod Brown - 46.1% (+15 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 40.8% (+13 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 7.3% (+2 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 5.8% (+2 delegates)

California
✓ Kamala Harris - 57.5% (+274 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 20.2% (+96 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 15.7% (+72 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 6.6% (+33 delegates)

Colorado
✓ Kamala Harris - 44.7% (+32 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 24.5% (+15 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 22.4% (+15 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 8.4% (+4 delegates)

Georgia
✓ Kamala Harris -  68.4% (+70 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 17.9% (+18 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 12.4% (+13 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 1.3% (+1 delegate)

Massachusetts
✓ Kamala Harris -  43.1% (+39 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 32.8% (+30 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 12.4% (+11 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 11.7% (+11 delegates)

Minnesota
✓ Sherrod Brown - 54.0% (+42 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 29.9% (+23 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 7.6% (+7 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 5.8% (+5 delegates)

Oklahoma
✓ Sherrod Brown - 53.5% (+20 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 29.6% (+11 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 9.3% (+5 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 4.6% (+2 delegates)

Tennessee
✓ Sherrod Brown - 42.8% (+30 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 38.4% (+26 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 10.7% (+7 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 6.1% (+4 delegates)

Texas
✓ Kamala Harris - 60.2% (+135 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 20.5% (+46 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 14.9% (+33 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 3.4% (+8 delegates)

Vermont
✓ Sherrod Brown - 39.5% (+7 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 34.0% (+5 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 11.8% (+2 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 11.7% (+2 delegates)

Virginia
✓ Kamala Harris - 59.4% (+58 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 29.4% (+28 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 5.3% (+5 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 3.9% (+4 delegates)

Delegate totals following Super Tuesday:

Kamala Harris - 789 delegates (332 superdelegates)
Sherrod Brown - 361 delegates (82 superdelegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 218 delegates (99 superdelegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 108 delegates (11 superdelegates)
Amy Klobuchar - 6 delegates (5 superdelegates)
Cory Booker - 4 delegates (2 superdelegates)
Andrew Cuomo - 4 delegates (1 superdelegate)
Deval Patrick - 3 delegates
Tom Steyer - 1 delegate
Seth Moulton - 1 delegate
Martin O'Malley - 1 delegate

Senator Kamala Harris was declared the winner of the Super Tuesday contests, however it became apparent that Senator Brown would be a strong contender for her in the months ahead. Senator Gillibrand, however, with no victories in any of the contests, announced she would suspend her campaign. Three days later, Congresswoman Gabbard did the same.

The race was now down to Senator Kamala Harris and Senator Sherrod Brown.

Harris head a significant advantage over her opponent due to a large collection of donors, superdelegates, and endorsements, however Brown's campaign had significantly more grassroots support in Middle America. Because of this, Brown's campaign focused on winning the same progressive voters who backed Bernie Sanders' campaign in 2016, primarily whites and blue collar workers. Harris, on the other hand, maintained most of Hillary Clinton's base of minorities, women, and "third way" Democrats.

For the rest of the month, both candidates fought for the mid-March contests, however in the end, Senator Brown won a slim majority of the contests.

Florida
✓ Kamala Harris - 61.3% (+138 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 34.7% (+76 delegates)

Illinois
✓ Sherrod Brown - 50.5% (+79 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 48.7% (+77 delegates)

Kansas
✓ Sherrod Brown - 70.9% (+24 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 29.3% (+9 delegates)

Louisiana
✓ Kamala Harris - 69.4% (+36 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 30.0% (+15 delegates)

Maine
✓ Sherrod Brown - 65.1% (+16 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 33.1% (+9 delegates)

Michigan
✓ Sherrod Brown - 53.6% (+70 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 45.2% (+60 delegates)

Mississippi
✓ Kamala Harris - 83.9% (+32 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 15.2% (+4 delegates)

Missouri
✓ Sherrod Brown - 53.9% (+39 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 44.7% (+32 delegates)

Nebraska
✓ Sherrod Brown - 60.3% (+15 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 38.7% (+10 delegates)

North Carolina
✓ Kamala Harris - 52.5% (+58 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 45.3% (+49 delegates)

Northern Mariana Islands
✓ Kamala Harris - 52.2% (+4 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 40.7% (+2 delegates)

Ohio
✓ Sherrod Brown - 64.9% (+95 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 33.4% (+48 delegates)

Delegate totals following Mid-March Contests:

Kamala Harris - 1,302 delegates (352 superdelegates)
Sherrod Brown - 765 delegates (113 superdelegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 218 delegates (99 superdelegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 108 delegates (11 superdelegates)
Amy Klobuchar - 6 delegates (5 superdelegates)
Cory Booker - 4 delegates (2 superdelegates)
Andrew Cuomo - 4 delegates (1 superdelegate)
Deval Patrick - 3 delegates
Tom Steyer - 1 delegate
Seth Moulton - 1 delegate
Martin O'Malley - 1 delegate

Shortly after the mid-March contests, the previous two 2016 Democratic primary rivals, Secretary Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders, issued their endorsements, with Clinton endorsing Senator Harris and Sanders endorsing Senator Brown. Harris continued to lead in polls, however Brown was determined to best Harris in the next few months.

[Lord Admirale]

The 2020 Democratic Primaries
Part III

As the race narrowed down to Senator Kamala Harris vs. Senator Sherrod Brown, each and every delegate was crucial, however Harris held an advantage in both pledged and unpledged delegates. Debates between Harris and Brown became increasingly vicious as Brown was beginning to close in on Harris' lead, and the upcoming contests were not in Harris' favor.

Between late March and April, Sherrod Brown scored a long string of victories.

Alaska
✓ Sherrod Brown - 75.7% (+14 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 24.1% (+2 delegates)

Arizona
✓ Kamala Harris - 55.4% (+42 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 44.0% (+33 delegates)

Democrats Abroad
✓ Sherrod Brown - 58.3% (+8 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 41.7% (+5 delegates)

Hawaii
✓ Sherrod Brown - 60.2% (+15 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 35.7% (+10 delegates)

Idaho
✓ Sherrod Brown - 76.9% (+18 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 22.5% (+5 delegates)

Utah
✓ Sherrod Brown - 74.1% (+24 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 25.7% (+9 delegates)

Washington
✓ Sherrod Brown - 68.4% (+69 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 30.8% (+32 delegates)

Wisconsin
✓ Sherrod Brown - 58.0% (+50 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 40.5% (+36 delegates)

Wyoming
✓ Sherrod Brown - 57.1% (+7 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 42.9% (+5 delegates)

Delegate totals following Late March/Early April contests:

Kamala Harris - 1,448 delegates (361 superdelegates)
Sherrod Brown - 1,003 delegates (124 superdelegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 218 delegates (99 superdelegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 108 delegates (11 superdelegates)
Amy Klobuchar - 6 delegates (5 superdelegates)
Cory Booker - 4 delegates (2 superdelegates)
Andrew Cuomo - 4 delegates (1 superdelegate)
Deval Patrick - 3 delegates
Tom Steyer - 1 delegate
Seth Moulton - 1 delegate
Martin O'Malley - 1 delegate

Talks swirled among pundits that a contested convention could occur in the summer if Sherrod Brown's momentum keeps up, however only about 500 delegates separated Senator Harris from the Democratic nomination. The Harris campaign was optomistic for the upcoming New York primary, a state where Senator Brown had barely visited, along with the Acela primary along the  northeast.

But, there were still lingering fears of a contested convention. A divided Democratic Party could give President Pence another four years in the White House.

New York
✓ Kamala Harris - 62.9% (+155 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 37.1% (+92 delegates)

Delegate totals following the New York primary:

Kamala Harris - 1,603 delegates (387 superdelegates)
Sherrod Brown - 1,095 delegates (126 superdelegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 218 delegates (99 superdelegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 108 delegates (11 superdelegates)
Amy Klobuchar - 6 delegates (5 superdelegates)
Cory Booker - 4 delegates (2 superdelegates)
Andrew Cuomo - 4 delegates (1 superdelegate)
Deval Patrick - 3 delegates
Tom Steyer - 1 delegate
Seth Moulton - 1 delegate
Martin O'Malley - 1 delegate

Harris had exceeded expectations in New York, mostly due to high turnout in New York City and lower turnout upstate. As a result, Brown's campaign doubled down on Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Indiana, which would have the potential to restart his momentum.

But would it be enough?

Connecticut
✓ Kamala Harris - 54.9% (+30 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 45.1% (+25 delegates)

Delaware
✓ Kamala Harris - 62.5% (+13 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 37.1% (+8 delegates)

Maryland
✓ Kamala Harris - 65.7% (+63 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 34.1% (+32 delegates)

Pennsylvania
✓ Sherrod Brown - 50.2% (+96 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 48.4% (+93 delegates)

Rhode Island
✓ Sherrod Brown - 57.2% (+14 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 42.7% (+10 delegates)

Delegate totals following the Acela contests:

Kamala Harris - 1,812 delegates (394 superdelegates)
Sherrod Brown - 1,270 delegates (159 superdelegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 218 delegates (99 superdelegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 108 delegates (11 superdelegates)
Amy Klobuchar - 6 delegates (5 superdelegates)
Cory Booker - 4 delegates (2 superdelegates)
Andrew Cuomo - 4 delegates (1 superdelegate)
Deval Patrick - 3 delegates
Tom Steyer - 1 delegate
Seth Moulton - 1 delegate
Martin O'Malley - 1 delegate

The chances of Sherrod Brown securing the nomination began to fade away as Harris only needed 100 more delegates to clinch the nomination, but even with this, Sherrod Brown stated that he would stay in the race until it was truly impossible for him to secure the nomination. Brown pushed onto Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, and Montana, while Harris pushed onto Guam, Puerto Rico, New Jersey, and New Mexico.

Indiana
✓ Sherrod Brown - 54.1% (+45 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 45.7% (+38 delegates)

Guam
✓ Kamala Harris - 55.5% (+4 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 44.5% (+3 delegates)

West Virginia
✓ Sherrod Brown - 60.1% (+19 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 33.8% (+10 delegates)

Kentucky
✓ Sherrod Brown - 58.5% (+33 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 39.0% (+22 delegates)

Oregon
✓ Sherrod Brown - 52.7% (+32 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 46.7% (+29 delegates)

Delegate totals after the May contests:

Kamala Harris - 1,915 delegates (405 superdelegates)
Sherrod Brown - 1,402 delegates (182 superdelegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 218 delegates (99 superdelegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 108 delegates (11 superdelegates)
Amy Klobuchar - 6 delegates (5 superdelegates)
Cory Booker - 4 delegates (2 superdelegates)
Andrew Cuomo - 4 delegates (1 superdelegate)
Deval Patrick - 3 delegates
Tom Steyer - 1 delegate
Seth Moulton - 1 delegate
Martin O'Malley - 1 delegate

[Lord Admirale]

This is excellent work! One question:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Oughtn't this read "would forgo"?

My fault, fixing it rn

[Lord Admirale]

The 2020 Democratic Primaries
Part IV

While Sherrod Brown had won more contests in May than his rival, it was still unlikely that without a contested convention, Brown would not be able to secure the 2020 Democratic nomination for President of the United States. Yet again, Senator Brown said he would go until the end, saying "anything could happen" between late May and the final contests in June.

But, unfortunately for Senator Brown, his hopes for a shot at the nomination weren't enough to get it.

Virgin Islands
✓ Kamala Harris - 85.4% (+10 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 15.6% (+2 delegates)

Puerto Rico
✓ Kamala Harris - 60.9% (+37 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 39.1% (+23 delegates)

Montana
✓ Sherrod Brown - 62.7% (+14 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 31.5% (+7 delegates)

New Jersey
✓ Kamala Harris - 64.5% (+81 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 35.5% (+45 delegates)

New Mexico
✓ Kamala Harris - 53.9% (+18 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 46.1% (+16 delegates)

North Dakota
✓ Sherrod Brown - 71.1% (+13 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 25.6% (+5 delegates)

South Dakota
✓ Sherrod Brown - 58.3% (+12 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 41.7% (+8 delegates)

Delegate totals after early June contests

Kamala Harris - 2,081 delegates (455 superdelegates)
Sherrod Brown - 1,527 delegates (199 superdelegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 218 delegates (99 superdelegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 108 delegates (11 superdelegates)
Amy Klobuchar - 6 delegates (5 superdelegates)
Cory Booker - 4 delegates (2 superdelegates)
Andrew Cuomo - 4 delegates (1 superdelegate)
Deval Patrick - 3 delegates
Tom Steyer - 1 delegate
Seth Moulton - 1 delegate
Martin O'Malley - 1 delegate

KAMALA HARRIS BECOMES PRESUMPTIVE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE
With just enough delegates to clinch the nomination, Kamala Harris has been declared the presumptive Democratic nominee for President of the United States.



As for Sherrod Brown, he had but one choice: concede and attempt to unite the party behind Senator Harris.



In his concession speech, Brown said he was disheartened by his defeat, but encouraged his supporters to rally behind Harris and hoped she would carry many of his principles to the White House.

But, in Sherrod's mind, he wasn't so confident in Kamala. His fear was that she would fail to drive out progressive voters and bring back blue collar workers who had voted Republican in 2016, a repeat of Hillary Clinton's defeat in 2016. He was wary of her lack of experience and how her campaign was heavily driven by donors, while he had been in politics for over four decades and was driven by grassroots efforts. Even in polls, he was much more formidable against President Mike Pence, while Harris struggled in key states, especially the Rust Belt.

Being mathematically eliminated from the nomination, there was nothing he could do. All he could do was give a rousing speech in support of Kamala Harris at the upcoming Democratic National Convention.

[Lord Admirale]

Next update will contain Harris' running mate selection, running mate, and the conventions. Stay tuned.

[Lord Admirale]

Running Mates and the Conventions

Polls as of July 1, 2020

Kamala Harris - 182 safe, 6 likely, 51 lean
Mike Pence / Brian Sandoval - 126 safe, 55 likely, 17 lean
Tossup - 102

After becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee and her opponent's concession and endorsement, Kamala Harris assembled a list of eight potential candidates to serve as Vice President if elected. On July 8, the Washington Post released the list of candidates, which contained the following:

• New Jersey Senator Cory Booker
• New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio
• Florida Governor Gwen Graham
• Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar
• Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy
• Texas Senator Beto O'Rourke
• Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick
• Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan

On August 3, Harris announced via Twitter that Senator Chris Murphy would be her running mate in the upcoming election.

The 2020 Democratic National Convention

The 2020 Democratic National Convention, located in Phoenix, Arizona, lasted from August 17 to August 20, nominating Kamala Harris and Chris Murphy as the official Democratic nominees for President and Vice President of the United States.

Among the speakers were former President Bill Clinton, former President Barack Obama, former Secretary of State and 2016 presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, former Vice President Joe Biden, former Vice President Al Gore, Texas Senator Beto O'Rourke (keynote speaker), Ohio Senator and former 2020 presidential candidate Sherrod Brown, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Georgia Congressman Jason Carter, Virginia Senator and 2016 vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine, and other prominent Democrats and supporters of Senator Kamala Harris.
 
In his keynote address, Texas Senator Beto O'Rourke said the following:

"Senator Harris has been a friend to me, a leader, and a powerful force in the Senate. Harris will push against the reactionary Pence White House and take our country back!"

For Sherrod Brown, his main goal was to unite the party behind Senator Harris, despite his opposition to many of her policies.



Brown was greeted by a lengthy standing ovation and "Sher-rod!" chanted by his supporters. In his speech, Sherrod Brown called on party unity behind Kamala Harris and said the following:

"Harris is one of the best people for the job, and Mike Pence isn't. Harris will move us forward and stand up for the rights of workers all across our nation. We might've had our disagreements during the primary, but we need to come together, as one party, to defeat the far-right's agenda!"

Many considered the 2020 Democratic National Convention a success, however many pundits noted that there were still remaining divisions between the Kamala Harris and Sherrod Brown camps during the convention. To many, this was not a big deal, but to others, this looked almost like a parallel to DNC four years ago.

Polls as of August 21, 2020

Kamala Harris / Chris Murphy - 187 safe, 23 likely, 83 lean
Mike Pence / Brian Sandoval - 125 safe, 38 likely, 17 lean
Tossup - 65

The 2020 Republican National Convention

A week following the Democratic National Convention, the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, commenced from August 24 to August 27. Compared to the Democratic National Convention, the Republicans strolled in as a mostly unified party, with President Pence and Vice President Sandoval virtually unopposed in the primary.

Speakers included Senate Minority Leader John Barrasso, House Minority Leader Paul Ryan, Nevada Governor Adam Laxalt, former Ohio Governor John Kasich, Texas Governor Greg Abbott, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott (Keynote), Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Alabama Governor Kay Ivey,  former Democratic Virginia Senator Jim Webb, Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse, and other prominent Republicans and Pence supporters.



During his keynote address, Senator Tim Scott called the Democratic presidential nominee a friend, but not suited for the job of President, and that President Pence and Vice President Sandoval will provide prosperity for the country.

The rest of the RNC remained relatively uneventful, with many pundits noting that Pence was a much more peaceful candidate than the nominee four years ago, along with the Republican Party being significantly more unified than it was four years ago.

Polls as of August 28, 2020

Mike Pence / Brian Sandoval - 163 safe, 23 likely, 114 lean
Kamala Harris / Chris Murphy - 161 safe, 21 likely, 6 lean
Tossup - 50

[Lord Admirale]

Not sure when the next update will be, I'm very busy with work and school atm, but I have a general idea of what will be next.