Analysis of 2008 California municipal results

[Alcon]

Largest % margins
Obama
1. Compton (Los Angeles): +90.55%
2. Berkeley (Alameda): +87.59%
3. Inglewood (Los Angeles): +86.83%
4. East Palo Alto (San Mateo): +84.46%
5. Oakland (Alameda): +84.24%
6. Emeryville (Alameda): +80.89%
7. Point Arena (Mendocino): +80.73%
8. Fairfax (Marin): +79.62%
9. Albany (Alameda): +78.87%
10. Richmond (Contra Costa): +77.42%
11. Lynwood (Los Angeles): +77.00%
12. Santa Cruz (Santa Cruz): +75.84%
13. San Pablo (Contra Costa): +73.90%
14. Mill Valley (Marin): +73.66%
15. Huron (Fresno): +73.64%
16. San Anselmo (Marin): +73.44%
17. El Cerrito (Contra Costa): +72.74%
18. Sebastopol (Sonoma): +72.72%
19. Maywood (Los Angeles): +72.05%
20. San Francisco (San Francisco): +70.59%

Bay Area towns dominate this list, either for ethnic diversity, "Bay Area liberalism," or both.  A few other lefty enclaves make the list, including several in affluent Marin County.  The other entries are heavily black Los Angeles area munis (#1, #3, #11) and a Mexican farming town (#15).

McCain
1. Maricopa (Kern): +57.83%
2. Taft (Kern): +52.32%
3. Villa Park (Orange): +43.85%
4. Montague (Siskiyou): +38.93%
5. Canyon Lake (Riverside): +38.39%
6. Dorris (Siskiyou): +37.82%
7. City of Industry (Los Angeles): +37.04%
8. Kingsburg (Fresno): +35.62%
9. Indian Wells (Riverside): +35.44%
10. Ripon (San Joaquin): +34.19%
11. Ridgecrest (Kern): +33.54%
12. Tulelake (Siskiyou): +31.98%
13. Rolling Hills (Los Angeles): +31.11%
14. Fort Jones (Sikiyou): +30.77%
15. Yorba Linda (Orange): +30.66%
16. Exeter (Tulare): +30.38%
17. Tehachapi (Kern): +30.11%
18. Norco (Riverside): +29.73%
19. Etna (Siskiyou): +29.15%
20. Susanville (Lassen): +28.00%

Suburban Republicanism isn't dead in California.  Well-to-do suburbs make five entries on the list:  either in the form of ultra-affluent enclaves (3,13,15) or McMansion-filled exurbs (5,9).

Beyond that, it's mostly desert towns in Southern California and angry gold-turned-lumber-turned-nothing towns in the Scott's Valley area of the Siskiyous.  Susanville is a prison town; Ripon is booming but I couldn't tell you why.  City of Industry, an overwhelmingly commercial city in the middle of Los Angeles, casts few ballots, but they're always overwhelmingly Republican.  Couldn't tell you why.

[Alcon]

Alternative form of basically the same data, for those who hate percentage margins

Highest %
Obama
1. Compton - 94.72%
2. Inglewood - 92.83%
3. Berkeley - 92.49%
4. East Palo Alto - 91.56%
5. Oakland - 91.24%
6. Emeryville - 89.41%
7. Point Arena - 89.06%
8. Fairfax - 88.54%
9. Albany - 88.42%
10. Richmond - 87.95%
...
476. City of Industry - 29.63%
477. Dorris - 29.09%
478. Villa Park - 27.43%
479. Taft - 22.99%
480. Maricopa - 19.88%

McCain
1. Maricopa - 77.71%
2. Taft - 75.31%
3. Villa Park - 71.28%
4. Canyon Lake - 68.64%
5. Montague - 68.63%
6. Kingsburg - 67.11%
7. Indian Wells - 67.09%
8. Dorris - 66.91%
9. City of Industry - 66.67%
10. Ripon - 66.26%
...
476. East Palo Alto - 7.10%
477. Oakland - 7.01%
478. Inglewood - 6.00%
479. Berkeley - 4.91%
480. Compton - 4.17%

Other candidates scored 13.89% at Vernon, another City of Industry-type enclave with a GOP tilt (5 of 36 votes).  Other than that, 4.52% at Etna (off the Scott's Valley lumber shield) was Other's best show.  Arcata (which actually has people!), home to a lot of anti-Democratic Party Green voters, managed a high 4.37% showing for third parties.

[Alcon]

This means the Supplement is out!?

oh hell yes!  Three days early, too.

Prop. 8 stuff next

Will take requests of any form (as always) as well as schooling about the nuances of Kern County

[Alcon]

You're right about Lynwood.  I was confusing it with Maywood, which was also on my list anyway.  Norco is perplexing because it's all "we don't use cars, we use horses," which is a very "model suburb" kind of thing to do (a la Peachtree City, Ga. and golf carts) but the incomes are not at all high.

Prop. 8
No
1. Berkeley: 87.39%
2. Fairfax: 86.63%
3. West Hollywood: 86.22%
4. Mill Valley: 85.45%
5. Santa Cruz: 84.53%
6. San Anselmo: 84.26%
7. Albany: 82.65%
8. Arcata: 81.46%
9. Sausalito: 81.21%
10. Point Arena: 81.15%
11. Sebastopol: 80.83%
12. Piedmont: 78.47%
13. Emeryville: 77.52%
14. Santa Monica: 77.44%
15. Corte Madera: 77.37%
16. Davis: 77.16%
17. Larkspur: 77.06%
18. El Cerrito: 76.27%
19. Palo Alto: 75.54%
20. Ross: 75.28%

Beyond the obvious entries, everything here is educated and affluent, with lots of Marin County appearances.  Davis hold UC-Davis.  Santa Monica's appearance is a little bit of a surprise (it isn't that educated, white or rich) but does show how minority voters knock a lot of lefty stalwarts off this list in the L.A. area.

Yes
1. Maricopa: 81.68%
2. Shafter: 81.37%
3. Kingsburg: 80.82%
4. Wasco: 80.79%
5. Taft: 80.57%
6. Dinuba: 78.68%
7. Vernon: 78.38%
8. McFarland: 78.27%
9. Mendota: 78.08%
10. Dos Palos: 77.96%
11. Exeter: 77.56%
12. Chowchilla: 77.44%
13. Corcoran: 77.04%
14. Tulare: 76.87%
15. Lindsay: 76.81%
16. Reedley: 76.60%
17. Firebaugh: 76.38%
18. Ripon: 76.26%
19. Hughson: 76.06%
20. San Joaquin: 75.97%

This is what happens when you take Hispanic farming towns and the Hispanics vote for the conservative option.  This list is heavily Central Valley and agricultural.   California's corwn jewel,Bakersfield itself, is #25 (75.18% yes).

[Alcon]

Central Valley, not Inland Empire.  grr, sorry, it's late.  And while I'm at it: Compton hasn't been plurality black for ages either.

Prop. 8 vs. Obama margin

Best
1. Compton: +120.48%
2. San Joaquin: +110.68%
3. Mendota: +109.30%
4. Inglewood: +108.78%
5. Huron: +108.31%
6. Parlier: +107.03%
7. Lynwood: +103.49%
8. Coachella: +102.80%
9. McFarland: +101.05%
10. Livingston: +100.53%
11. Orange Cove: +100.11%
12. Calexico: +99.06%
13. Maywood: +96.43%
14. Arvin: +96.03%
15. Paramount: +93.61%
16. Firebaugh: +90.07%
17. Bell Gardens: +89.13%
18. Greenfield: +88.54%
19. East Palo Alto: +87.91%
20. Huntington Park: +87.55%

Well, let's see here.

Every place on this list except for Compton and Inglewood, is over 70% Hispanic, and most are at least around 90%. Compton is 57% Hispanic and 40% black; Inglewood is 46% and 47%, respectively.  Any questions?

Worst
1. Hidden Hills: -33.84%
2. Rolling Hills: -19.61%
3. Hermosa Beach: -15.38%
4. Manhattan Beach: -15.29%
5. Newport Beach: -14.61%
6. Indian Wells: -12.03%
7. Villa Park: -10.95%
8. Beverly Hills: -10.37%
9. Palos Verdes Estates: -9.31%
10. Laguna Beach: -9.15%
11. Malibu: -8.92%
12. Ross: -7.10%
13. Del Mar: -7.10%
14. Belvedere: -6.75%
15. Atherton: -6.61%
16. Rolling Hills Estates: -6.44%
17. Coronado: -6.19%
18. Calabasas: -5.67%
19. Portola Valley: -5.20%
20. West Hollywood: -4.88%

Ridiculously wealthy areas and a gay enclave at #20.

The remaining list of positive performances is: Rancho Mirage, Woodside, Monte Sereno, El Segundo, Orinda, San Clemente, Montague, Solana Beach, Dana Point, Agoura Hills, Westlake Village, Lafayette, San Marino, Huntington Beach and Hillsborough.

With the exception of Montague (a freak heavily-GOP inclusion from Siskiyou lumber country), more of the same, although a few upper middle class entries in heavily white areas.  After that, touristy areas increasingly show up -- Mammoth Lakes was essentially at par, and Big Bear Lake (despite being Republican and working-class ) followed.

Still, lots of clearly affluent areas with clear overperformances for Prop. 8.

[Alcon]

No, Berkeley didn't.  Obama gained 3.09% over Kerry.

Discluded from analysis:  The Los Angeles incorporated enclaves.  I don't believe Bradbury went from 0 to 468 voters.  City of Industry "swung" from 1-0 Bush to 36-16-2 McCain.  Make of that what you will, but I'm not including them.  Also not included is Wildomar, which was incorporated in 2008.

Swing from 2004 to 2008
To Obama
1. Adelanto: +36.31%
2. Williams: +32.31%
3. Avenal: +30.96%
4. Orange Cove: +30.80%
5. Firebaugh: +30.54%
6. Perris: +30.13%
7. Farmersville: +29.75%
8. Lake Elsinore: +28.66%
9. Victorville: +27.80%
10. Woodlake: +27.62%
11. Ceres: +26.80%
12. Moreno Valley: +26.54%
13. Imperial: +26.53%
14. Sand City: +25.58%
15. Calipatria: +25.55%
16. Livingston: +25.45%
17. Lindsay: +25.40%
18. Riverbank: +25.21%
19. Patterson: +25.18%
20. Merced: +24.98%

Things that assisted in large swings:  Hispanic population, housing crisis.  Some, like #1 Adelanto, combined the two.  But there were lots of places (like Lake Elsinore) that saw massive Obama swings despite having only moderate Latino counts, probably because of what I can imagine are ridiculous foreclosure rates.

The only sore thumb is Sand City, which is basically a retail area incorporated as a city for no reason.  It has an artist's colony, or something, but more significantly a population of only 261.

Riverbank (#18) officially calls itself "the City of Action."  This has no electoral significance, but I thought it was awesome, although probably a lie.

To McCain (or less to Obama)
1. Beverly Hills: -4.70%
2. Laguna Woods: -1.66%
3. Fortuna: -0.75%
4. Daly City: +0.01%
5. Brisbane: +1.14%
6. West Hollywood: +1.57%
7. Albany: +1.72%
8. Colma: +1.78%
9. Yountville: +2.13%
10. Maricopa: +2.28%
11. Sonora: +2.43%
12. San Francisco: +2.48%
13. Rosemead: +2.86%
14. Irwindale: +3.06%
15. Berkeley: +3.09%
16. City of Commerce: +3.11%
17. Calimesa: +3.54%
18. El Cerrito: +3.64%
19. Hercules: +3.87%
20. South San Francisco: +3.92%

It's not that Obama was unpopular in a lot of these cities, but rather that Bush really just couldn't have done much worse.  That gives a mix of lefty Bay Area locales, and the super-affluent but also quite secular.

Rosemead has a high Asian population.  Irwindale is heavily Hispanic, but may also be affected by whatever shenanigans L.A. Elections pulled with City of Industry and Vernon between '04 and '08.  It's a similar place.

Interestingly, this list lacks much in the way of strong blue-collar towns.  It's mostly ceiling-hitting in Cali -- although certainly there are some entries (such as in San Francisco) where blue-collar elements kicked in against Obama.

[Alcon]

Bush/No on Prop. 8 (Bush margin, Prop. 8 margin)
Aliso Viejo (Orange) +17.66 -3.09
Amador (Amador) +10.85 -8.47
Atherton (San Mateo) +2.27 -23.06
Clayton (Contra Costa) +5.92 -0.64
Costa Mesa (Orange) +12.64 -0.95
Danville (Contra Costa) +4.80 -9.76
El Segundo (Los Angeles) +8.06 -8.75
Ferndale (Humboldt) +13.53 -0.84
Grass Valley (Nevada) +5.68 -0.42
Hidden Hills (Los Angeles) +5.39 -35.93
Hillsborough (San Mateo) +4.64 -14.48
Irvine (Orange) +5.63 -2.20
Westlake Village (Los Angeles) +6.23 -7.63

All but three are affluent suburbia.  Ferndale is a swing town in Humboldt County, which seems weirdly Republican for its demographics and locale.  I think Grass Valley is an old gold town that's now panning to tourists.  Sort of weird it voted Bush in the first place, really.

Amador City is completely inexplicable, for all I can tell.  It had no apparent business voting no on Prop. 8.

No McCain municipalities failed Prop. 8.  The closest was Rancho Mirage (Prop. 8 +2.04%, McCain +6.91%).

------------------

I should go asleep before I start writing even more incoherently.  Taking requests for tomorrow on any state issues.

[Alcon]

Bay Area towns dominate this list, either for ethnic diversity, "Bay Area liberalism," or both.  A few other lefty enclaves make the list, including several in affluent Marin County. 

Marin County will be interested in knowing that it isn't part of the bay area.

Haha.  I'm quite aware that Marin County is in the Bay Area (unlike the Central Valley, the Bay Area is a place I know); that's just what happens when you write stuff at 1 AM.  The point was to contrast the liberalism there with, say, Oakland, Union City, Emeryville, Fremont, etc., leading up to the Prop. 8 stuff.  Which was kind of useless since I wrote "Bay Area liberalism" and made that super-vague, but whatever. 

I'm intrigued by what makes Villa Park so Republican.  It's wealthy, but if $81k MHI doesn't go so far in Hermosa Beach, I can't imagine Villa Park's $116k is that flashy.

[Alcon]

Milpitas voted yes on Prop. 8 and it wasn't even close: 57.49%.

Prop. 1A (High-Speed Train Bond)
1. San Francisco (San Francisco) - 78.33%
2. Berkeley (Alameda) - 76.37%
3. West Hollywood (Los Angeles) - 74.79%
4. Sebastopol (Sonoma) - 73.31%
5. Fairfax (Marin) - 72.63%
6. Emeryville (Alameda) - 73.24%
7. Colma (San Mateo) - 71.89%
8. Point Arena (Mendocino) - 71.82%
9. Mill Valley (Marin) - 71.50%
10. Oakland (Alameda) - 70.90%
11. Santa Cruz (Santa Cruz) - 69.74%
12. Albany (Alameda) - 69.65%
13. San Anselmo (Marin) - 69.46%
14. Daly City (San Mateo) - 68.92%
15. Sausalito (Marin) - 68.79%
16. East Palo Alto (San Mateo) - 68.62%
17. McFarland (Kern) - 68.29%
18. Calexico (Imperial) - 68.26%
19. Coachella (Riverside) - 68.21%
20. El Cerrito (Contra Costa) - 68.18%
...
460. Paradise (Butte) - 32.43%
461. Yreka (Siskiyou) - 32.31%
462. Villa Park (Orange) - 31.29%
463. Susanville (Lassen) - 31.08%
464. Biggs (Butte) - 30.66%
465. Tehama (Tehama) - 30.27%
466. Fortuna (Humboldt) - 30.22%
467. Tulelake (Siskiyou) - 30.00%
468. Rio Dell (Humboldt) - 29.84%
469. Plymouth (Amador) - 29.75%
470. Willows (Glenn) - 29.74%
471. Corning (Tehama) - 29.60%
472. City of Industry (Los Angeles) - 28.85%
473. Loyalton (Sierra) - 28.69%
474. Orland (Glenn) - 28.65%
475. Etna (Siskiyou) - 27.98%
476. Alturas (Modoc) - 26.46%
477. Montague (Siskiyou) - 25.95%
478. Dorris (Siskiyou) - 24.60%
479. Fort Jones (Siskiyou) - 24.45%

Urban liberal areas liked it (as did rural Hispanic towns, apparently); rural conservative ones, especially in the remote North, didn't.   The Humboldt County entries on the "no" list are odd.

[Alcon]

Prop. 11 (Redistricting, per request)
1. Belvedere (Marin) - 71.36%
2. Portola Valley (San Mateo) - 68.58%
3. Atherton (San Mateo) - 65.89%
4. Ross (Marin) - 65.26%
5. Sand City (Monterey) - 64.58%
6. Rolling Hills (Los Angeles) - 63.74%
7. Orinda (Contra Costa) - 63.56%
8. Los Altos Hills (Santa Clara) - 63.35%
9. Woodside (San Mateo) - 63.19%
10. Monte Sereno (Santa Clara) - 63.03%
...
470. Guadalupe (Santa Barbara) - 38.00%
471. Fort Jones (Siskiyou) - 37.64%
472. Inglewood (Los Angeles) - 37.57%
473. San Francisco (San Francisco) - 36.94%
474. Compton (Los Angeles) - 36.76%
475. East Palo Alto (San Mateo) - 36.43%
476. Greenfield (Monterey) - 35.43%
477. Soledad (Monterey) - 35.37%
478. Gonzales (Monterey) - 35.25%
479. Tulelake (Siskiyou) - 32.84%

Very liberal towns and very conservative ones both voted "no."  Wealthy left-leaning suburbs were the strongest performances.  Hispanic voters were pretty strongly "no."  Weird results.

[Alcon]

Prop. 4 (Parental notification on abortion)
1. Holtville (Imperial) - 78.51%
2. Westmorland (Imperial) - 75.91%
3. San Joaquin (Fresno) - 75.29%
4. Imperial (Imperial) - 75.19%
5. Calexico (Imperial) - 75.13%
6. Wasco (Kern) - 75.11%
7. McFarland (Kern) - 74.95%
8. Mendota (Fresno) - 74.66%
9. El Centro (Imperial) - 73.37%
10. Calipatria (Imperial) - 73.14%
...
470. Piedmont (Alameda) - 20.74%
471. Arcata (Humboldt) - 20.30%
472. West Hollywood (Los Angeles) - 19.51%
473. San Anselmo (Marin) - 18.40%
474. Albany (Alameda) - 18.25%
475. Point Arena (Mendocino) - 17.03%
476. Santa Cruz (Santa Cruz) - 16.49%
477. Mill Valley (Marin) - 16.32%
478. Fairfax (Marin) - 15.88%
479. Berkeley (Alameda) - 14.10%

I doubt there's any need for commentary on this one.

[Alcon]

Btw, why are Victorville and Apple Valley so different?

The answer from what I gather:  Victorville is cul de sac-y (probably hit by foreclosures hard too), Apple Valley is more of an ungodly post-apocalyptic desert hellscape with big lots.  Take a look at the Street View pretty much anywhere in Apple Valley.  Houses built on miles upon miles of dust.  There is no green.  Its demographics are similar, but it's a distinctly different place and lifestyle.

I'll leave it to someone who's been to SBC to give a less emotive answer

[Alcon]

Apple Valley is more of an ungodly post-apocalyptic desert hellscape with big lots. Take a look at the Street View pretty much anywhere in Apple Valley.  Houses built on miles upon miles of dust.  There is no green.

In other words, just like Victorville.

The part of Victorville I've checked have all been supdevelopments, except for the most Republican part.  I don't have a full precinct map, though.  But the spread is much bigger than I'd ever guess.  Employment looks pretty comparable, too.

In any case, the parts of Victorville that most resemble Apple Valley (geographically and in platting) are comparably Republican.

[Alcon]

Platting? What does a shithole in the guts of Manchester have to do with Californian suburban shitholes?

I assume that was just snark, right?  Or maybe y'all don't have "platting" under that name.