Redistricting victims next cycle.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Republicans left TN-05 as a Nashville seat because their incumbents did not want to deal with seats that were less heavy Republican. I do not see how this would change after 2020.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Bost and Davis are probably going to get the same treatment in 2022 that Altmire and Critz got in 2012.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

How does a 14D - 3R map perform under a 2014 scenario?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Illinois,_2014

House popular vote: 51.42% (D) - 48.58% (R)

That was back when Republicans were competitive, and sometimes even winning in the collar counties. That time is over. Trump has pushed those areas away from the Republican party, and these areas are not the type that will go back to the Republicans even after Trump is gone. Republican are not going to ever perform this well again in Illinois anytime in the near future. There is nothing to be worried about here.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If I were drawing the MN map D gerrymander for 2020, I would try to pack Republicans into 2 seats, keep seats intact for McCollum, Craig, and Philips, draw away the seats of Omar and Peterson, while creating 2 new open Democratic seats which would be up for grabs for a primary.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If I were drawing the MN map D gerrymander for 2020, I would try to pack Republicans into 2 seats, keep seats intact for McCollum, Craig, and Philips, draw away the seats of Omar and Peterson, while creating 2 new open Democratic seats which would be up for grabs for a primary.

That is not possible.

why not?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

MA has pending legislation to get an independent commission. If that happens I think atleast 3 or 4 of the current delegation gets shafted by either double bunking (Kennedy, Lynch, Presley, Trajan?) or being drawn into more competitive districts (McGovern, Keating)

I think the commision might take into account incumbents like NJ does.

That might be difficult since 4 of them are in core Boston (Kennedy, Lynch, Presley, Clark). And the wording says that lines should respect municipal boundaries, and not be drawn to dilute voters of certain parties or race. So the 2 I most likely see are MA-2 becoming primarily a Central MA swing seat by taking Amherst/Northampton out and MA-9 becoming a south shore swing district taking New Bedford and Fall River out and adding The parts of Plymouth/E Norfolk that are in 8

Making a swing seat out of central Massachusetts is a stretch unless it was specifically designed to be a swing district, and the Democratic legislature has no incentive to do so. You have to draw the lines in a very deliberate manner to get a true swing district out of central Mass.

A swing district in the southeast is probably the best that Republicans could hope for.

 "Proportional Representation"


1. D+18 (Springfield, Amherst) NEAL
2. R+1 (Fitchburg, Ludlow) OPEN SEAT
3. D+15 (Worcester, Waltham) MCGOVERN
4. D+19 (Quincy, Newton) KENNEDY
5. D+13 (Malden, Lynn) MOULTON vs CLARK
6. D+7 (Lowell, Lawrence) TRAHAN
7. D+34 (Boston, Cambridge) PRESLEY vs LYNCH (Lynch retires or runs for Senate)
8. EVEN (Weymouth, Taunton) OPEN SEAT
9. D+6 (New Bedford, Plymouth) KEATING

"PRIORITIZE COMPETITION"


1. Springfield, Amherst (D+18) NEAL
2. Worcester, Gardner (D+2) MCGOVERN (way too liberal for this MA-2)
3. Lowell, Fitchburg (D+3) TRAHAN
4. Quincy, Newton (D+19) KENNEDY
5. Framingham, Waltham (D+17) CLARK
6. Lawrence, Lynn (D+10) MOULTON
7. Boston, Cambridge (D+34) PRESLEY vs LYNCH (again, Lynch probably retires or runs for Senate)
8. Fall River, New Bedford (D+4) OPEN
9. Weymouth, Plymouth (D+2) KEATING

Districts 2, 3, 8, and 9 could be highly competitive seats

Like I said, you have to deliberately draw the maps with maximizing competition in mind. Getting 4 competitive seats for Republicans is a pipe dream in reality.

This why we need an expanded House. A 12 or 13 seat MA, makes drawing three or four lean seats for the GOP very easy.

I think a 12 or 13 seat map would probably still have no more than 2 Republican leaning seats, though I have not made an attempt to draw such a map recently.