Redistricting victims next cycle.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

West Virginia - WV-2.  Duh.

Almost certainly it'll be whoever is in WV-3 who gets the short end of the stick, due both to geography and seniority (barring any retirement). This was/will be the logical conclusion of any GOP-dominated coalition in WV government; to divide the state into east and west in order to prevent any potential weakness from popping up in the southern end of the state. This was something that was surely on their radar even before 2016, and with Ojeda's relative success in running in WV-03, it's all but guaranteed now. He's even talked about how there have been backroom discussions on dividing WV this way before he jumped into the race.

McKinley's in Wheeling and Mooney is in Charles Town; cut a line down the middle of the state and neither have to move to run for re-election - and especially if a Democrat holds WV-03 then, it'll all but guarantee their victories.

Mooney is incompetent enough that I could see a Democrat beating him in that district.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

In the event TN loses a seat, here's what a Nashville split could look like:



1: Utterly safe eastern TN coal dirt seat. R+29, and another 10 years in Congress for Phil Roe (R) (insert Generic R if he dies).

2: Features the entirety of Knoxville and Maryville, heads south for population. R+21. Tim Burchett (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress) will have a long career here.

3: Nashville Split, Part A. Includes Western Davidson County and its western surburbs, then heads across the northern border until scooping south to touch district 2. R+14, and the home for Mark Green (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress).

4: This seat includes Nashville proper and is where Jim Cooper (D) would try to run for re-election, but the E-SE suburban skate it takes after leaving Nashville does not help him, as it takes the seat all the way to R+10. This would be a free-for-all in the republican primary, but whoever wins it would defeat Cooper or any other D in the general.

5: Skating from East Davidson through heavily republican suburbs, this will be home for John Rose (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress). R+16.

6: This seat features the entirety of Chattanooga, and then goes West for population. At R+18, it's not competitive in the general election. But the 2022 primary would feature a YUGE battle as two republican incumbents live here - Chuck Flesichmann and Scott DesJarlais. Prepare for a nasty primary. Alternatively, one of them could carpetbag up to the 4th, but would risk losing the primary to a new, more local candidate.

7: This R+19 West TN seat is perfect for another 10 years of David Kustoff (R).

8: D+18 VRA. Safe Steve Cohen/generic Black D if he retires.

-------------

Least Change from this if TN remains at 9 Reps is as follows: The 1st becomes even more trenched in the coal dirt, with its westernmost parts going into the second. The southernmost parts of the second end up in the sixth, the westernmost reaches of which become a new, 9th seat that would in theory be good for Mr. DesJarlais, but in practice the fact that he would live just outside of it might doom him in the primary. The seat is completed with parts of the 5th/8th. Adjust remaining lines as needed to reach uniform population.

I feels its more likely R's get a fourth seat involved in cracking Nashville to make it safer (R+10? Too low) and also an incumbent from losing their home seat (never would draw two incumbents together).

Yeah. Jim Cooper is a blue dog who used to represent a rural district and who handily outran Clinton. A crack would have to solid to knock him out.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Sanford Bishop, given his district is bleeding population and will get chopped up.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Yarmuth is pretty liberal, and if the KY GOP draws the maps well, they can probably get him in a D+2 seat (depending on population growth). He might be able to lose that.