This blog
https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/p/election.html which seems to fancy itself as a ROC 538 has a running prediction model based on poll aggregation, fundamental information, prediction markets, and google search. There model seems to focus less on fundamental data than I would. Also they often leave out key third party candidate in their vote share projections. One thing I live about 538 is that they really try to take into account of minor candidates. Anyway what they have is:
Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
Ko 48% (In theory pro-Green)
KMT 39%
DPP 14%
This projection seems to overweight non-Blue polls that has Ko 10% ahead and does not take into account of a minor KMT rebel which I have to assume takes votes away from the KMT candidate. My projection which is more KMT friendly focuses more on fundamentals.
New Taipei City (新北市) (PVI Blue +2)
KMT 56%
DPP 44%
Very close to my projection and mostly matches CW.
Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP 53%
KMT 43%
I assume the remaining 4% goes to the KMT rebel. Mostly matches CW. My projection is more based on fundamentals and more KMT friendly.
Taichung City(臺中市) (PVI Blue +0)
KMT 51%
DPP 49%
Matches most CW and my projection.
Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP 49%
KMT 34%
pro-KMT ind. 13%
I guess the remaining 4% goes to remaining DPP and TSU rebels. This projection seems to high for the pro-KMT ind. and too low for the various DPP and TSU rebels. But we will see.
Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
KMT 52%
DPP 48%
This projection leaves out the PFP rebel and ex-NP candidate which most likely will pull in support from the KMT vote. But overall matches my projection.
Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)
DPP 54%
KMT 46%
Matches my projection exactly which is a more fundamental based projection.
Yilan County(宜蘭縣) (PVI Green +6)
KMT 55%
DPP 44%
This leaves out a KMT rebel which I guess will pull in from KMT candidate. Mostly matches CW and my projection.
Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)
MKT 44%
KMT 40%
DPP 16%
This projection double downs the DPP collapse while my projection has DPP base still voting for DPP in large numbers. In the DPP collapse scenario MKT will benefit more and then win.
Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP 51%
KMT 38%
I guess the other 11% will go to pro-Ko Pro-Green independent. Overall this is more negative for the KMT than fundamentals would suggest but this projection is more poll focused on this one.
Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)
KMT 65%
pro-DPP Ind 35%
This projection is leaving out KMT and DPP rebels which I guess will take some support from KMT and DPP separately.
Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)
KMT 52%
DPP 48%
This projection missed the TSU rebel pro-Ko candidate which I suspect will win as much as 4%. I guess that will come out of the DPP vote share which would make this race a bigger KMT win that most, including me, would expect given fundamentals.
Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)
KMT 58%
DPP 42%
Sounds about right and matches CW although more pro-KMT than my projection.
Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)
DPP 54%
KMT 46%
This projection is missing a DPP rebel which will come out of the DPP vote share. Sort of matches my projection that this race will be a lot closer than CW projections of a easy DPP win.
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)
DPP 58%
KMT 42%
This projection leaves out a very significant DPP rebel (he is the current DPP vice magistrate and has de facto support of the DPP incumbent.) If this DPP rebel vote share of comes out of the DPP vote share then this projection would match my projection.
Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)
KMT 40%
DPP 39%
KMT rebel 21%
This projection is much more positive on the KMT rebel than my projection. Of course my projection is the same, narrow KMT victory.
Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)
DPP 60%
KMT 40%
Matches CW. I think the KMT will be a lot closer.
Taidong County(臺東縣) (PVI Blue +18)
KMT 56%
DPP 44%
This projection leaves out a key KMT rebel (who is the wife of an previous KMT county magistrate and was a county magistrate herself.) If you take her vote share out of the KMT projection then this would match my projection pretty well.
Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)
KMT 69%
DPP 31%
Mostly matches CW, somewhat more positive on KMT then myself.
Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)
KMT 54%
DPP 46%
Does not take into account a couple KMT rebels. If we take those vote share for KMT rebels from the KMT candidate then this will match my projection.
So overall this blog projection mostly matches my. Only real difference is Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) where I focus on fundamentals with the large KMT base and this blog double downs on non-Blue polls showing Ko with a 10% vote share lead.