French Regionals 2010

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The turnout projection is now 51%. It remains extremely low, but significantly higher than for last round. This is likely to favor the right, but I doubt it will play a determinating role.

Polling has shown that voters who abstained last week but are voting today still favour the left. The type of voters who vote today but who didn't vote last week are those with little interest in politics, but who just vote in the runoff because it effectively decides everything.

The right needs to hope turnout is heavier in its strongholds than last time, and it seems unlikely.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

France2, one of the 2 big, also broadcast it on the net:

http://info.france2.fr/elections/regionales-2010/videos/?idcategorie=mea2&type=direct

lol, strike of a part of the crew, then cheap 'show'. France! Fidel to the reputation.

Maybe I'll swtich to TF1 if that's too cheap.

[Umengus]

La gauche l'emporte largement, le FN se maintient

Mots clés : FRANCE

Par Jim Jarrassé
21/03/2010 | Mise à jour : 19:46
Selon les dernières estimations, la gauche récolte 52,2% des voix contre 37,1% pour la droite. Avec 9,7% des suffrages, le FN se maintient bien au second tour des régionales.
 
Les listes de gauche arrivent largement en tête au second tour des régionales. Selon les dernières estimations de l'institut de sondage OpinionWay, elles récoltent 52,2% des suffrages. C'est 15 points de plus que la droite qui obtient 37,1% des voix. Un score très légèrement supérieur aux 36% annoncés par les derniers sondages. Le parti présidentiel a pu profiter du léger regain de participation : évaluée à 49,5%, le taux d'abstention s'affiche en baisse de quatre points par rapport au premier tour.

Mais la défaite reste sévère pour la majorité, qui obtient environ le même score qu'en 2004 (36,9%). Les listes de gauche, elles, progressent encore, gagnant plus de 2 points par rapport au dernier scrutin régional (49,9%).

Belle opération enfin pour le Front national. Le parti de Jean-Marie Le Pen, qui avait crée la surprise au premier tour en récoltant 11,7% des voix, montre qu'il est de retour dans le paysage politique avec un score de 9,7%. En Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, Jean-Marie Le Pen rafle ainsi près d'un quart des suffrages. Idem dans le Nord-Pas-de-Calais, où Marine Le Pen obtient un score de près de 23%.

Dans les régions, l'hégémonie de la gauche se confirme. Ségolène Royal l'emporte en Poitou-Charentes avec 61% des suffrages contre environ 39% pour le secrétaire d'Etat aux Transports Dominique Bussereau. La gauche l'emporte aussi très largement en Ile-de-France, où Jean-Pau Huchon sort vainqueur de ce scrutin avec 62% des suffrages contre 38% pour son adversaire de droite Valérie Pécresse.

Seule ombre au tableau de la gauche : l'Alsace, où la droite a largement dominé ce premier tour. Donné ex-æquo jusqu'au dernier moment avec son adversaire de la gauche Jacques Bigot, l'UMP Philippe Richert l'emporte avec 47% des voix.

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National runoff numbers don't mean squat, even less than the first round numbers. I don't know when people and the media will understand that.

[Umengus]

JM Le Pen at 25 % and Marine at 23 %

Corsica is toss up and alsace is for UMP

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JM Le Pen at 25 % and Marine at 23 %

Corsica is toss up and alsace is for UMP

No, 22.5% for Le Pen. Though 19.5% for the FN in LR... what a crappy sh**t-ass backwards region.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

JM Le Pen at 25 % and Marine at 23 %

Corsica is toss up and alsace is for UMP

Le Pen given at 22,5, on Sofres.

Royal 61%, she surely hopes to be the best PS score tonight.

Haven't heard NPdC.

Frêche owned it. 53%

[Umengus]

JM Le Pen at 25 % and Marine at 23 %

Corsica is toss up and alsace is for UMP

No, 22.5% for Le Pen. Though 19.5% for the FN in LR... what a crappy sh**t-ass backwards region.

wow a big surprise...

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Parti Socialiste / Europe Écologie (Jacques Bigot)   39,5 %
UMP (Philippe Richert)   46 %
Front National (Patrick Binder)   14,5 %

Divers gauche (Georges Frêche)   53,5 %
UMP (Raymond Couderc)   27 %
Front National (France Jamet)   19,5 %

Parti Socialiste / Europe Écologie / Front de gauche (Michel Vauzelle)   44 %
UMP (Thierry Mariani)   33,5 %
Front National (Jean-Marie Le Pen)   22,5 %

Parti Socialiste / Europe Écologie (Ségolène Royal)   61 %
UMP (Dominique Bussereau)   39 %

Parti Socialiste / Europe Écologie / Front de gauche (Jean-Jacques Queyranne)   51 %
UMP (Françoise Grossetête)   34 %
Front National (Bruno Gollnish)   15 %

UMP gains Reunion on official results.

[Umengus]

shame on gollnish. Not so bad for pecresse...

[Math]

Haven't heard NPdC.

52% for Percheron according to Opinionway.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Not so bad for pecresse...

20% would not be bad, given the awful candidate she is.

Haven't heard NPdC.

52% for Percheron according to Opinionway.

Yes, but I really wait to see whether FN will be the 1st right party.

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Bretagne:

PS 49.9
UMP 32.2
GRN 17.9

PDL:

PS-Breton haters 57.1 (ugh)
UMP 42.8

NPDC:

PS 52
UMP 26
FN 22

IDF:

PS 55
UMP 45 (not bad)

[Umengus]

Le figaro and TF1 give different results... with the same pollster ! (OW)

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Oh, , brace. Royal speaks.

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Haven't heard NPdC.

52% for Percheron according to Opinionway.

Yes, but I really wait to see whether FN will be the 1st right party.

No no no, Letard is at 25% and Marine at 22% (IIRC).

[Math]

Oh, , brace. Royal speaks.

So I guess Aubry is trying to do the same.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Royal first to speak. Very good speech. Wow. Contrast with last week.

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Royal first to speak. Very good speech. Wow. Contrast with last week.

Yeah, she's sober and sane. Mark the date, 'cause it's rare.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Haven't heard NPdC.

52% for Percheron according to Opinionway.

Yes, but I really wait to see whether FN will be the 1st right party.

No no no, Letard is at 25% and Marine at 22% (IIRC).

It remains huge for FN, but good they are not second, symbolically would have been awful.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Royal first to speak. Very good speech. Wow. Contrast with last week.

Yeah, she's sober and sane. Mark the date, 'cause it's rare.

Well, in fact she found back her 'Madone style', the stuff why I think she remains a very serious option.

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The Greenies can stop acting as if they're something new now, please.

[Umengus]

Royal first to speak. Very good speech. Wow. Contrast with last week.

Royal speech was not on tf1 and france 2...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Cohn Bendit, playing her game now, currently speaking and pleading for a new big leftist force, which is good for Royal and not for Aubry's camp, which seems to still be  'PS first'.

Royal first to speak. Very good speech. Wow. Contrast with last week.

Royal speech was not on tf1 and france 2...

I'm on France2, it was.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Divers gauche (Georges Frêche)   53,5 %
UMP (Raymond Couderc)   27 %
Front National (France Jamet)   19,5 %

So, yeah.