Two Guesses

[Albus Dumbledore]

What's the other most likely possibility you see besides this?

[Albus Dumbledore]

What would this look like in detail? I've got a clear picture of the more statism scenario but not the other one.

[Albus Dumbledore]

I don't know where people are getting this idea of the US going social democratic from. Leftism is dying in the west and America was merely the first place the social democratic conensus broke. When it comes apart in Europe it'll be a far worse backlash than here in the United States. We merely got 2-3 decades of reaganite asshattery but Europe could at worst see fascist and theocratic revivalism but more realistically see current statist/internal security/PC-enforcing measures used to suppress liberals/seculars/leftists. This has deeper consequences besides a change in who holds the whip hand. America will be a different place but Europe will be VERY different.

What's causing these trends across the Euro-Atlantic world? Simple demographics. The native europeans are decreasingly tolerant of multiculturalism, Islam and their elites. We already see increasing paranoid backlashes from them. for the US it's simple, the aging of the most idealistic/utopian/leftist(I say leftist as in wannabe social dem) part of the population combined with largescale latin immigration changing the US from being a white protestant nation.

IMO, Europe will see far more political change than the US will. In the US we'll probably see more federalism/less government intervention in social issues from either left/right(catholic conservatives believe in traditional values but not in social engineering and the left is dying off) but more on economic issues(catholics(actual catholics not the current crop of white ethnic de facto liberal protestant) hold... differing beliefs on welfare than protestants combined with an increasing populist trend in the evangelical sections of the nation). Europe on the other hand changes much more socially and becomes much more authoritarian socially. Think J.J.'s far right scenario for the likely changes to happen in Europe combined with Boss Tweed's observation in the thread on american culture of mild white nationalism popping up.

[Albus Dumbledore]

You want what I see as likely coalitions in the long run after the transition completes in the next few decades?

Democrats become the party of the good government types-perotistas-gypsy moths-suburban fiscal cons/semilibertarians-centrists-blue dogs. Basically we have a mostly secular center-right democratic party. Socially it tends to be secular/states-rights/security conservative with a large amount of federalism on social issues. The culture of the party's base is quite plutocratic/elite/yuppie.

The GOP, as the final stage of it's evolution ends up a populist lefty christian democratic party. Think an economic agenda that's a mix of catholic corporatism/populism/pro-labor reforms. The social agenda is reformist, lefty social justice christianity. Think the unitarian, other liberal denominations and more liber. It's got liberal social policies but culturally this party is the party of the working class/populists.

[Albus Dumbledore]

So J.J. Any comments on the potential coalitions I see forming?

[Albus Dumbledore]

The fact that Huckabee was even considered shows the GOP's move towards populism plus the increasing power of blue dogs in the dems are IMO signs of it.

[Albus Dumbledore]

Democrats have been lurching to the right hence my predictions of them eventually ending up a secular moderate conservative party with a libertarian wing. Also, Roe V. Wade will never be done in and serious restrictions on abortion will never be enacted. The right isn't stupid and won't do anything to endanger it's ability to get out the vote.