2012 NDP leadership convention

[King of Kensington]

There seems to be a bit of a "time lag" in Ontario, with the Liberals still polling around 25%.    It will have to become clear to Ontarians that the NDP is *the* opposition party.  With Mulcair at the helm - the NDP really can start to look like the "new Liberals."  The "orange wave" already hit suburban Toronto and I don't see why they can't sweep Scarborough, expand from their showing in Bramalea-Gore-Malton to other Brampton seats, and pick up Mississauga East-Cooksville, Ajax-Pickering, etc.  They do after all win these types of seats in suburban Vancouver.

It will be interesting to see if the NDP can make inroads into what remains of the Liberal base - affluent socially liberal urban professionals, too educated to vote Conservative and too rich to vote NDP.  Or can the Libs survive as a "boutique party" for this constituency?  If Mulcair and the NDP is able to crack into this constituency , a seat like St. Paul's is in play for the NDP.  On the other hand I can see a scenario where the Libs go down to 15% and have St. Paul's be the only Liberal seat in Ontario, akin to River Heights in the Manitoba legislature.

[King of Kensington]

Good points from everyone.  I do think that while there are "working class populists" particularly in the SW and north that the NDP can target, the 25% Liberal vote province-wide is hurting more than helping the NDP and the NDP really needs to bury the Liberals.  Certainly that is the case in Scarborough, Brampton, etc. and most of the GTA and that's true in places like Kitchener-Waterloo also. 

There may be a few affluent ridings, as Tommy mentions, like DVW where a strong Liberal showing can knock off a Tory.  But they are few and far between, as even polling at Dion-like levels in Ontario seems utopian at this point.  The question again is do the Libs try to be a catch-all party or do they restyle themselves as a boutique party for affluent professionals? (Tommy's "midtown yuppies" are just about the only reliably Liberal constituency left at this point!)  And the question regarding Mulcair is, does he come off enough of a small "l" liberal to be seen as "safe" for the professional classes? Ultimately I think the NDP wants the "Obama coalition" which is basically the social democratic universe (which the NDP now dominates) + affluent "liberal" professionals (still very Liberal).

[King of Kensington]

I'm not assuming anything, except to say that in order for the NDP that have to win in Ontario they'd have to drive down the Liberal vote significantly. 

It's important to remember too that while it's true that more Liberals defected to the Tories than to the NDP in Ontario over the past 3 elections, I think the Tories have come closer to hitting their ceiling while the NDP has more room for growth.  According to an Ekos poll in May, the NDP was the 2nd choice over the Tories among Liberal voters by 5-1.   Doesn't mean all those votes will go there, but if it's clear that the NDP is *the* opposition party assuming a quarter or a third of Liberals would go NDP is not unreasonable.  

Also keep in mind the 905 region is hardly homogeneous.  York Region for instance is too nouveau riche to go NDP but it's now a Tory stronghold.  But Peel and Durham regions are filled with the types of ridings that go NDP in other parts of the country, like their counterparts in the Lower Mainland of BC.

[King of Kensington]

Yes, a very large percentage of the Liberal caucus is over 60.