Someone should do a 2020 Google Consumer Survey poll

[The Other Castro]

I'll do one if someone can help me with the design.

[The Other Castro]

I'm between doing a hypothetical Iowa Caucus with a bunch of Dems, or a series of general election matchups between Trump and some Dems.

[The Other Castro]

I have started a 500 person National Democratic Primary poll.

[The Other Castro]

I have started a 500 person National Democratic Primary poll.

Who did you include as candidates?

I was limited by the number of slots available, so some potential candidates failed to make the cut and I had to use some judgement (partially who I wanted to see, partially who I think will run). This probably won't please everyone, but I picked: Harris, Booker, Warren, Murphy, Gillibrand, Other (Write-in), and an option for those not voting in the Democratic primaries. The options are randomized with the exception of the Not Voting option and the Other option, which always appear last and second to last respectively.  

[The Other Castro]

I have started a 500 person National Democratic Primary poll.

Who did you include as candidates?

I was limited by the number of slots available, so some potential candidates failed to make the cut and I had to use some judgement (partially who I wanted to see, partially who I think will run). This probably won't please everyone, but I picked: Harris, Booker, Warren, Murphy, Gillibrand, Other (Write-in), and an option for those not voting in the Democratic primaries. The options are randomized with the exception of the Not Voting option and the Other option, which always appear last and second to last respectively.  

No Sanders or Klobuchar ? Also, just how many slots exactly were available?

Sorry, it kept being weird when I tried to add more candidates so I could only do the number that I did. Coupons are available if people want to make their own for free. This didn't cost me anything.

[The Other Castro]

Errr I probably should have done more than 500, half of those are likely going to pick the not voting option.

[The Other Castro]

Looks like it's going to end up with around 250 responses or so. Warren has a slim lead so far as expected, but the numbers could be very interesting.

[The Other Castro]

Mine should be finished tonight or tomorrow.

[The Other Castro]

The poll is complete! 5 candidates were offered as options, as well as an option to write in a candidate not listed (and an option to say you would not be voting in the primary). I recalculated the numbers with the non-voting and invalid responses removed:

If the Democratic Primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election were held today in your state, who would you vote for?

Elizabeth Warren - 46%
Cory Booker - 19%
Chris Murphy - 11%
Kamala Harris - 9%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 9%
---------------------------------
Bernie Sanders (write-in) - 1%
Michelle Obama (write-in) - <1%
Martin O’Malley (write-in) - <1%
----------------------------
Unknown/Undecided - 5%

The number of valid responses was 220.

[The Other Castro]

Detailed crosstabs are obviously not too useful for a sample like that, but is there anything that jumps out at you re: demographic differences between those who picked Warren and those who picked someone else?

Most filters didn't change the order much, but there were some filters that provided interesting results. Limiting answers to just the Northeast brought Booker into almost a tie with Warren. Likewise, Booker did better when answers were limited to voters in Urban areas. Kamala Harris did better in the West but not by much. Warren most strongly performed in the West and Midwest. There were very few differences when looking at gender. The sample size is probably too small to really get anything else out of that.

[The Other Castro]

Detailed crosstabs are obviously not too useful for a sample like that, but is there anything that jumps out at you re: demographic differences between those who picked Warren and those who picked someone else?

Most filters didn't change the order much, but there were some filters that provided interesting results. Limiting answers to just the Northeast brought Booker into almost a tie with Warren. Likewise, Booker did better when answers were limited to voters in Urban areas. Kamala Harris did better in the West but not by much. Warren most strongly performed in the West and Midwest. There were very few differences when looking at gender. The sample size is probably too small to really get anything else out of that.

I'm curious having never conducted a national poll - for national polls, does Google Surveys break down the results only by region or also by state?  And am I right in assuming you still get age data?

They allow you to break it down by four regions (Northeast, South, West, Midwest) or by state, but going by state with 220 usable responses nationally wasn't worth it. For example, there were only 8 responses in Iowa, 5 in New Hampshire, etc. You get age data as well in the categories of 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65+.

[The Other Castro]

This was really fun and I have a 2nd email, so I've started a Trump/Cuomo general election match-up since I think he'd be one of the weakest Democrats could offer as a candidate. I would do more Democrats, but multiple question surveys are very expensive.


Edit: These initial Cuomo vs. Trump results would be pretty surprising if they hold up.

[The Other Castro]

Well, this is interesting:

If the 2020 Presidential Election were held today, who would you vote for given the following candidates?

Donald Trump (Republican Party) - 29%

Andrew Cuomo (Democratic Party) - 17%

Undecided/Unknown - 38%

Would Not Vote - 16%


If you factor out those who would not vote, Trump leads Cuomo 34%-21%, with 45% Undecided. I think I'm going to go without an Undecided option next time and see what happens.

Here's how they perform under particular filters, with non-voters factored out:

Men: Trump leads 37%-19%
Women: Trump leads 32%-22%

Midwest: Trump leads 32%-20%
Northeast: Cuomo leads 34%-26%
South: Trump leads 39%-15%
West: Trump leads 37%-20%

[The Other Castro]

Your crosstabs sound plausible, except perhaps for West.  What states does Google Surveys consider West?  California must make up a good portion of its population, no?  What do they classify Texas as?  South, I hope?

From their website:

West (CA, AK, WA, OR, HI, ID, MT, WY, NV, UT, CO, AZ, NM), Midwest (ND, SD, NE, KS, MO, IA, MN, WI, MI, IL, IN, OH), South (TX, OK, AR, LA, KY, TN, MS, AL, FL, GA, SC, NC, VA, WV, MD, DC, DE) and Northeast (PA, NY, NJ, ME, VT, NH, MA, RI, CT).

[The Other Castro]

I have some other emails that I've used for more polls, and started a Trump/Warren matchup and a Trump/Justin Amash primary matchup. Even with a male-heavy sample so far, Warren is doing much much better than Cuomo. The Trump/Amash matchup is about what you'd expect so far.

[The Other Castro]

I got rid of the Undecided option for Warren vs. Trump:

If the 2020 Presidential Election were held today, who would you vote for given the following candidates? (Factoring out those who selected I Would Not Vote / I Can Not Vote):

Donald Trump (Republican Party) - 51%
Elizabeth Warren (Democratic Party) - 49%

Some Demographic filters (West still wonky, regional filters aren't that helpful):

Male: Trump 58%-42%
Females: Warren 56%-44%

Midwest: Warren 51%-49%
Northeast: Warren 66%-34%
South: Trump 58%-42%
West: Trump 54%-46%

----------------------------------

I also polled Trump vs. Amash (and an option for "will not vote in the Republican primaries):

If the Republican primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election were held today in your state, who would you vote for given the following candidates? (Factoring out non-primary voters)

Donald Trump - 45%
Justin Amash - 4%
Undecided/Unknown - 51%

[The Other Castro]

Wow, this looks really good, Castro. Would be nice if someone could do Montana and poll the special election, the Senate race and maybe the 2020 gubernatorial race.

Thanks, I'm addicted now. Multi-part questions in individual states would be pretty expensive, though a single 500 response poll for the senate race minus the coupon would be about $25.

[The Other Castro]

Halfway through my Booker/Trump match up, Booker is slightly ahead (especially among ladies ).

[The Other Castro]

I decided to bring back the Undecided option for Booker vs. Trump:

If the 2020 Presidential Election were held today, who would you vote for given the following candidates? (Factoring out those who selected the Would Not / Can Not Vote option)

Cory Booker - 30%
Donald Trump - 29%
Undecided - 41%

Demographic filters (with non-voters removed):

Males - Trump leads 35%-25%
Females - Booker leads 34%-24%

Midwest - exact tie (literally same number of responses) at 25% each.
Northeast - Booker leads 39%-22%
South - Trump leads 38%-27%
West - Booker leads  31%-24%

[The Other Castro]

Btw, you can also apply the coupon to individual Senate matchups with 333 responses. I started one for Missouri (McCaskill vs. Wagner). If only we had a 2018 polling board...