Do you feel like this is 2004 all over again, but with the parties switched?

[BaldEagle1991]

Don't you think is kind of like 2004? With a moderately-popular incumbent facing a big issue (for Bush it was the Iraq War and for Obama it's the recession and jobs), the challenger has a slight strong following, and the race is somewhat neck and neck. The only obvious difference here is the two parties are switched.

[BaldEagle1991]

Yeah, I've been thinking about this for a while. Romney also tends to have the same problems as Kerry: being perceived as and aloof aristocrat ready to flip-flop on every issue.

That whole flip-flopping issue that both Kerry and Romney were accused of, makes it even much closer to 2004. Heck, they're also both Bay Staters.

[BaldEagle1991]

No, it feels more like 1980.

The race feels like 2004, but the election turnout on election night will be 1980.

This is the reason why...

It's also worth noting that today Obama's approval rating average is about the same as Bush's was on election day, and much higher than Carter's in 1980.

...it won't be like 1980.

[BaldEagle1991]

Its true that Kerry didn't pull ahead in the national avg, but he did lead in some national polls and he was able to show leads in the states including OH, as you can see from this map
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/ec_graph-2012.html

I had to facepalm looking at the 2008 polls and saw that the Paris Hilton ad was used as a benchmark event.